Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

For Fred, with a notional £3,000 'roll, £800 to win £100 or £300 to win £37 is not a bet in a million years, but for those with bigger bankrolls, it makes perfect sense.

notional roll was £3000 and profits are £2700, roll is really £5700, so i think the days of £150 maxes should really be behind us

I don't mind us upping it when the occasion demands, we already do when we see fit, it is a guideline rather than a hard & fixed amount.

I'm not sure I agree with your logic though - we have £2,000 in Forward Bets on the book. Surely that must be taken into account?

So I view it as £3,000 + £2,700 MINUS £2,000.

Yes, no?

well ok, but we have to assume or take a view that the £2000 converts into a cash value of £x, yes? even if you don't want to plug in the thread 3-4% roi and plug in say -5% to be safe....

so to just take £2000 off is too conservative

i suppose i come at this from Joe Hart was priced at 1/8, betfair is 1/20, £800 to win £100 on a certainty (he'd be taken off in any pre WC friendly on any hair out of place, let alone risk injury) was a corker, and yet you were saying it wasn't suitable for the thread. I thought it was very suitable to keep the wheels oiled.

However i wouldn't have placed that with £800 of your money without consultation, so didn't!

Well I don't think "conservative" is necessarily a bad thing, but then I'm a lifelong nit.

We recently had a £350 bet @ 2/7, to nick £100, & I think it aged me 10 years. Like watching Edward Scissorhands, as one erudite chap noted.

It's just a personal thing, I don't want to bet that big, I want to enjoy my betting, not "bet scared". I have no objections or problems if others do, good luck to them.

I'm the same with poker, as you may know. I could sell a bit of action to the $10,000 PLO event in the WSOP, which I would give my right arm to be able play, & several people have offered to buy, or stake me, but I'm just too damn scared to play for that sort of money.

I'm very very happy playing small-ball, be it in Sports Betting, or poker. I just play small-ball poker these days, & have never enjoyed my poker more. My fave Fred bets are £10 or £20 @ 5/2, that sort of thing. Occasional gee-gees at 6/1 & up are fine, too, but once the numbers get bigger, I don't enjoy it so much. Remember that word. enjoy. It's the only reason I'm here.

I agree, by the way, that my numbers logic may have been overly conservative. In all good financial management, though, that tug of war, between prudent & gung-ho SHOULD take place all the time. It's a good thing.

I think this is more than fair doos.

As a fred punter i get a feel from how people post (and who posts) as to what i want on. Just because fred bets £50 on somthing doeset mean i can not whack £200 on and same for if fred puts £100 on i may only put on £25 etc.

Its nice to have a benchmark to go off i.e max, double max. Mortgage jobbie. but aside from that its "almost" irrelevant what fred bets. as long as it is fair. so if someone says max and £100 is bet. Next time someone says max £1000 shouldnt be bet etc etc

BOOM, you got it.

It does not matter a jot or tickle what Fred bets - everyone bets whatever they feel is right for them. The Fred Spready is just the sort of mortar in the brickwork, to give us some measureable benchmarks, & encourage a continuing flow of good information & education.

[BorntoBubble]

Coral have just notified me that they are "money back if brazil or argentina win world cup"

looking at their odds they are best priced on spain at 8/1 seems like a good bet to me? £25 max.

[tikay]

Interesting conundrum this Hart bet poses the Bosses.

I can see both sides of the coin. I used to be happy to place this sort of bet when I was punting for a living, and saw a few go down, I hasten to add, and they always left a bitter taste in my mouth, mainly because it wasn't how I had got the roll together in the first place, I suppose.

The reality is he IS a certainty to start on all known factors. 1-8 is massive. FACT.

Counter that with the notional stories of "remember how x broke his leg just before that championship decider". Yes we all remember the odd tale or two, but more importantly remember the millions more that have made their target without incident. That in itself makes it a bet.

Fred....Dont blame you either way.

Another BOOM.

The bet is/was great, I'm not suggesting otherwise.

It's just not my cup of tea, thats all, for the various reasons I have tried, very honestly, to explain.

To me, personally, it's not a problem, we should all bet what we feel comfy with, live & let live. I don't like playing cash poker, but that does not mean cash poker is bad. 

[sonour]

Coral have just notified me that they are "money back if brazil or argentina win world cup"

looking at their odds they are best priced on spain at 8/1 seems like a good bet to me? £25 max.

Spain 8/1 very good without the offer. 7/1 on Betfair

[sonour]

Coral have just notified me that they are "money back if brazil or argentina win world cup"

looking at their odds they are best priced on spain at 8/1 seems like a good bet to me? £25 max.

Spain 8/1 very good without the offer. 7/1 on Betfair

Spain are 7/1 at Coral but I think it's still a bet with the offer.

Can we bet it please Tikay.

Nice spot Sir.

[TightEnd]

I don't fancy Spain this time round

far from certain to win that group, plenty of players ageing, who have had a lot of games this year

if they don't win the group, they get the winners of Brazil's group in the second round

not for me

40-1 Spain to finish bottom of group B is my banzai

[sonour]

I don't fancy Spain this time round

far from certain to win that group, plenty of players ageing, who have had a lot of games this year

if they don't win the group, they get the winners of Brazil's group in the second round

not for me

40-1 Spain to finish bottom of group B is my banzai

Ok, then we back Spain at 7/1 with Coral for £25. We lay Spain for £25 at Betfair.

If Spain win we are level
If Spain, Brazil or Argentina don't win we are £1.25 down ( Betfair commission )
If Brazil or Argentina win we are £23.75 up.

[TightEnd]

Coral have just notified me that they are "money back if brazil or argentina win world cup"

looking at their odds they are best priced on spain at 8/1 seems like a good bet to me? £25 max.

Spain 8/1 very good without the offer. 7/1 on Betfair

Spain are 7/1 at Coral but I think it's still a bet with the offer.

Can we bet it please Tikay.

Nice spot Sir.

i have done the Coral offer for now. Appreciate my spain view is contrarian to say the least

Spain13/2
World Cup Outright - 13/07/2014
Stake £25.00
Estimated Return:£187.50
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Return: £187.50

money back as a free bet if Brazil or Argentina win the World Cup

[sonour]

I rate your views.

I prefer the £25 lay on Betfair route anyway but too frightened of Doobs to suggest that as the 1st option.

We are effectively betting £1.25 @ 19/1 on Brazil or Argentina to win which is a much better bet.

[TightEnd]

this is probably pie in the sky, but the Leicester City Squad went to Thailand for a week with the owners, they are back to day

bit of a jolly, bit of PR etc etc

In a Q and A (not really reported in the English media) to national press

Click to see full-size image.

the vice-chairman (son of owner) said...

"We are are willing to spend £180 million to finish in the top 5 of the PL within 3 seasons"

Lets allow for a bit of hyperbole as its being said to sponsors/investors and for bragadoccio, as don't think top 5 is realistic given who is there already


I take the view that from Southampton down (given the italian money has gone and some of the bright talent will be leaving) there are thirteen PL teams much of a muchness. anyone can have a bad season and go. possibly three top ten spots to go at next season

6-1 top half has gone, 4-1 best, for what its worth (we discussed it a while ago)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish

I forgot that one Rich, can you get on for us, please?

Ironically (OK, you got me) I think for a full season sweat, £100 seems about right to me.

However, I don't want to be investing monster sums on the '14-'15 Season. It's an age thing.....

There ought to be a mechanism where a proxy could do it though.

16 Aug 2014 - English Premier League 2014/15 - Top Half Finish - Outright
Tip It

Leicester @ 4/1

Stake : £50.00
Estimated Returns : £
250.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000952/F

£100 is too much, currently, i think. will watch the price, looking for more than 4-1 the the rest

[TightEnd]

Mr Glittera-chompy

Updated Derby prices - Australia 5/4, True Story 11/2, Kingston 10/1, Fascinating Rock, Western Hymn 12s, 14s Bar

13-Jan   Chompy   Betfred   Sep-2014   Horses   Aidan O’Brien - Number of UK Classic Winners   None   8/1   31.25

anything to be done, happy to be opposing Australia?

[tikay]

I rate your views.

I prefer the £25 lay on Betfair route anyway but too frightened of Doobs to suggest that as the 1st option.

We are effectively betting £1.25 @ 19/1 on Brazil or Argentina to win which is a much better bet.

Now that's the kind of bet I like........

[TightEnd]

so, sonour, i can lay £25 spain at 8

we have £25 at 13/2 to win £162

liability on the lay is £175 so presumably you want me to lay say £23 and make it spain-neutral and then we get a "free" £25 bet if brazil/argentina win?

please clarify, ty

[BorntoBubble]

I think that's my first bet that's got through on here woop! Well and assigned to me had some stolen not gonna name names, you know who you are

Where has the tipsters sheet gone from the spreadsheet? A reason for that going?

[tikay]

I think that's my first bet that's got through on here woop! Well and assigned to me had some stolen not gonna name names, you know who you are

Where has the tipsters sheet gone from the spreadsheet? A reason for that going?

The Tipsters Column is still there, but it is set to "Locked"/"private". Best that way, avoids people perhaps feeling uncomfortable, especially due to sample size & the like.

We don't really want anyone to have fun poked at them.