I've written previews of each world cup group at
http://www.betpal.com/fifa-world-cup-2014-betting-and-offers if anyone is interested. Got more articles to come, eg team specials, winner etc etc
the golden boot one is going up this morning, and has taken quite a bit of research. Quite a few things struck me about past golden boots which i mention.
(Dzeko is a Millidonk spot that i've used)
here's a draft......
A look at the major factors to consider when considering who will win the Golden Boot.
- The Group drawWith a maximum of seven games to be played for any player, if their nation reaches the last four, and typically 6-7 goals winning a World Cup Golden Boot, the make up of the group into which you are drawn is clearly crucial. Is there one of the weakest fourth seeds, for example?
Looking at data since the 1986 World Cup there is clear evidence that the winner of the Golden Boot scores the majority of their goals in the group stages. For the seven previous World Cups the Golden Boot winners scored more goals (26) at a better average (a goal every 71 minutes) in the group stages than the knockout stages (22 goals, scoring a goal every 100.8 minutes).
- World Cup progressionEach nation will play a minimum of three games and a maximum of seven if they reach the semi-final. This is important, as almost all Golden Boot winners’ nations progress into the knockout stages. Pitch time clearly means a greater chance of goals
Since 1986, six of the last eight Golden Boot winners have played seven games, however just one has reached the final, with the other five finishing their tournament in the third-place playoff.
Historically, the third-place playoff produces more goals than the World Cup final. In the last seven World Cup third-place playoffs, there have been an average of 4.28 goals, compared to two goals in the final.
- Team tactics & motivationUnderstanding the tactics and style of play a nation employs is vital when picking a potential Golden Boot winner. Nations that create more chances are more likely to have the winner of the Golden Boot in their squad. The last winners have played for the World Cup’s highest scoring teams.
A team must also play to the player’s strengths. Just because a player is prolific for his club side doesn’t mean he is guaranteed to score plenty on the International stage. For instance Uruguay’s Edinson Cavani is considered amongst the best strikers in the world scoring on average a goal every 1.34 games since 2010 for his respective club teams, but on the international stage he struggles, finding the net on average every three games. One reason is that Cavani is instructed to lead the line and act as a foil for Luis Suarez who scores a goal every 1.82 games for Uruguay.
- Set piece specialists On average it requires six goals to claim the World Cup Golden Boot. Players taking free kicks and penalties are more prolific, which can make all the difference between winning the award and not.
Looking back at the last seven World Cups, the Golden Boot winners have scored 14.5% (7) of their goals from penalties, while just 2% (1) of winners’ goals came from free kicks. This shows that being a team’s penalty taker could prove decisive. Interestingly, for example, Sergio Aguero has never taken a penalty in regular time for Argentina.
So, taking those factors into account, we can look at two areas of the Golden boot market, the favourites and some outsiders. Bear in mind that apart from the Brazilian Ronaldo in 2002, none of the other seven Golden Boot winners have been majorly fancied to lift the trophy before the start. There is definitely value elsewhere....
- Favourites
At the time of writing the market is headed by the following
Messi 8/1 (37 goals, 83 caps, 9 pens)
Neymar 14/1 (30 goals, 47 caps, 4 pens)
Ronaldo 16/1 (49 goals, 110 caps, 7 pens)
Aguero 16/1 (21 goals, 47 caps, 0 pens)
Suarez 18/1 (38 goals, 77 caps, 6 pens)
Higuain 20/1 (20 goals, 35 caps, 1 pen)
All bookmakers offer 1/4 the odds top 4 places, so all of the above are going to have their supporters with backers. Of the two indescribably talented players Messi and Ronaldo you would have to say Messi is the more likely Golden Boot winner. Argentina are by far the more favoured team (5/1 to win, compared to 33/1 for Ronaldo’s Portugal), playing on their home continent and are generally a stronger side in all areas of the pitch. Put simply, they are more likely to play 6 or 7 games than Portugal are. The same might apply to Suarez, with Uruguay far from a sure thing to get through a tough group
The "favourite" who really appeals is Neymar with a goal every 1.5 games for his country with the real expectation that he will play 7 games (a major surprise if Brazil do not reach the last four at home). Likely to be on penalties and free kicks, with the team playing through him and the 14/1 with Corals each way looks a cracking bet
- OutsidersMany many contenders for a more speculative price outside the front runners including
Van Persie 33/1 (40 goals 80 caps 5 pens) out of group? chile?
Muller 33/1 (16 goals, 47 caps, 0 pens) false nine
Balotelli 40/1 (12 goals, 29 caps, 4 pens)
Falcao 40/1 (20 goals, 50 caps, 5 pens)...injury risk/ready for start?
Rooney 50/1 (40 goals 90 caps, 2 pens) gerrard on pens? withdrawn role?
out to the likes of
Dzeko 100-1 (33 goals, 60 caps, 2 pens) *13/8 top bosnian scorer note*
Of these and many other players two appeal. Mario Balotelli has 7 goals in his last 13 internationals for Italy, and scored 3 in 4 starts in his last major competition Euro 2012 including twice in the semi-final. He is likely to be Italy's penalty taker. He should play every game. The team has a strong record in tournaments and has a good chance of a deep run. With Balotelli we have to take on some disciplinary risk, but his goal-scoring record at intnernational level has improved since 2012 where a number of opportunities were missed. 40-1 with BWin is a big price for Balotelli outright, 33-1 each way widely available elsewhere
For a big priced outsider look at Bosnia's Edin Dzeko at 100-1 each way with Coral, who will play every game, socred 10 goals in qualifying and Bosnia have every chance of getting out of the Argentina/Nigeria group and progressing to the knock-out stages. A big price for a goal-scorer in a team that scores plenty against weaker teams, on the evidence of the qualifying group, and could give backers a nice run for their money
Recommendations
World Cup Golden Boot
Neymar 14/1 e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4) Coral
Mario Balotelli 33/1 e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4) Coral (40-1 win only BWin)
Edin Dzeko 100-1 e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4) Coralnote dubai has us on Jackson Martinez (colombia, assumes Falcao doesn't make it)
note maldini has us on rossi (to play up front with balotelli, hopefully)
anyway, hopefully the above will generate some discussion.....
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