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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16404120 times)
horseplayer
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« Reply #78015 on: May 19, 2014, 05:47:10 PM »

Bury look like they will either be way clear or fall apart to me

Not sure the wisdom in paying a fairly hefty fee for a 35 yr old striker is especially on a nice contract as well
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horseplayer
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« Reply #78016 on: May 19, 2014, 05:52:40 PM »

I touched on this a few weeks ago...

Lvg is a slow starter

In 2 seasons at Bayern, they were 7th and 8th after 13 games. In his last season Barca, 10th after 13 games.

Obviously might not happen again just because it has before but when you throw Man United have lost 1500+ games worth of Man Utd experience it would make sense if it did.

Not sure of best way to take advantage of this if people think it is worthy.

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exstream
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« Reply #78017 on: May 19, 2014, 06:28:50 PM »

Does anyone have a view on the daily PP offers?

Today for example they offered stakes back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 4.20 at Redcar and an extra place in the 5.50 at Redcar.

It would seem logical that the first offer in particular offers value?

I appreciate there is an issue getting on with PP however I would expect there are contributors who could help get on if necessary.

The one I noticed earlier today, was 8/1 bf and 6/1 on there, may still offer value though, I don't know.
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sonour
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« Reply #78018 on: May 19, 2014, 07:09:17 PM »

Does anyone have a view on the daily PP offers?

Today for example they offered stakes back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 4.20 at Redcar and an extra place in the 5.50 at Redcar.

It would seem logical that the first offer in particular offers value?

I appreciate there is an issue getting on with PP however I would expect there are contributors who could help get on if necessary.

The one I noticed earlier today, was 8/1 bf and 6/1 on there, may still offer value though, I don't know.

I do both of these daily and they are both good. On the race PP offer money back if 2nd or 3rd the odds are generally poor until 10 mins before the off, then you will be ale to get numerous good matches.
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sonour
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« Reply #78019 on: May 19, 2014, 07:10:02 PM »

Does anyone have a view on the daily PP offers?

Today for example they offered stakes back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 4.20 at Redcar and an extra place in the 5.50 at Redcar.

It would seem logical that the first offer in particular offers value?

I appreciate there is an issue getting on with PP however I would expect there are contributors who could help get on if necessary.

The one I noticed earlier today, was 8/1 bf and 6/1 on there, may still offer value though, I don't know.

I do both of these daily and they are both good. On the race PP offer money back if 2nd or 3rd the odds are generally poor until 10 mins before the off, then you will be ale to get numerous good matches.


You can also get more on a restricted account just before the off.
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Doobs
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« Reply #78020 on: May 19, 2014, 07:13:41 PM »

Does anyone have a view on the daily PP offers?

Today for example they offered stakes back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 4.20 at Redcar and an extra place in the 5.50 at Redcar.

It would seem logical that the first offer in particular offers value?

I appreciate there is an issue getting on with PP however I would expect there are contributors who could help get on if necessary.

The one I noticed earlier today, was 8/1 bf and 6/1 on there, may still offer value though, I don't know.

I do both of these daily and they are both good. On the race PP offer money back if 2nd or 3rd the odds are generally poor until 10 mins before the off, then you will be ale to get numerous good matches.


Yeah, this is a better idea.  Taking 6/1 on an 8/1 chance is going to be bad in the kind of races they make the offer on.  Once they start offering track prices you should get closer to Betfair.  Isn't always true obviously. 
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
TheDazzler
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« Reply #78021 on: May 19, 2014, 07:34:49 PM »

I touched on this a few weeks ago...

Lvg is a slow starter

In 2 seasons at Bayern, they were 7th and 8th after 13 games. In his last season Barca, 10th after 13 games.

Obviously might not happen again just because it has before but when you throw Man United have lost 1500+ games worth of Man Utd experience it would make sense if it did.

Not sure of best way to take advantage of this if people think it is worthy.



Next manager to lose their job? I was looking for that market as soon as he was appointed but can't see it. He is, as you say, a notorious slow starter and not really starting this job for a couple of months can't help. If he has to bring in 5+ players, that adds to it.
I guess maybe laying United season expectations with a view to reversing positions mid season?
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BorntoBubble
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« Reply #78022 on: May 19, 2014, 07:44:45 PM »

I touched on this a few weeks ago...

Lvg is a slow starter

In 2 seasons at Bayern, they were 7th and 8th after 13 games. In his last season Barca, 10th after 13 games.

Obviously might not happen again just because it has before but when you throw Man United have lost 1500+ games worth of Man Utd experience it would make sense if it did.

Not sure of best way to take advantage of this if people think it is worthy.



Next manager to lose their job? I was looking for that market as soon as he was appointed but can't see it. He is, as you say, a notorious slow starter and not really starting this job for a couple of months can't help. If he has to bring in 5+ players, that adds to it.
I guess maybe laying United season expectations with a view to reversing positions mid season?

I was thinking lay to back options. This is my guess...

United prices shorten with fan money after his announcement this week.
United prices will move (unsure on shorten/lengthen) depending on the transfers that are brought in and when they are announced.
United prices will lengthen as united start poorly (this also happened in SAF days anyway United were notorious for peaking at the right time)
"hopefully" United prices will begin to shorten again as they improve.

I would not be looking at outright markets for these bets more Top 4/Top 6. Match bets with Arsenal/Tottenham/Liverpool/Everton
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sonour
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« Reply #78023 on: May 19, 2014, 07:48:48 PM »

Does anyone have a view on the daily PP offers?

Today for example they offered stakes back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 4.20 at Redcar and an extra place in the 5.50 at Redcar.

It would seem logical that the first offer in particular offers value?

I appreciate there is an issue getting on with PP however I would expect there are contributors who could help get on if necessary.

The one I noticed earlier today, was 8/1 bf and 6/1 on there, may still offer value though, I don't know.

I do both of these daily and they are both good. On the race PP offer money back if 2nd or 3rd the odds are generally poor until 10 mins before the off, then you will be ale to get numerous good matches.


Yeah, this is a better idea.  Taking 6/1 on an 8/1 chance is going to be bad in the kind of races they make the offer on.  Once they start offering track prices you should get closer to Betfair.  Isn't always true obviously. 

Also unlike the WH mobile offer it doesn't just apply to the first bet placed on the race but to all bets.

And you can receive a refund for 2nd and a refund for 3rd.
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KitKeeper
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« Reply #78024 on: May 19, 2014, 08:22:24 PM »

Will post on the WC discussion thread as well, but I reckon Marco Reus might be worth a speculative punt at 7/1 to be Germany's top goalscorer.

Loew absolutely loves him and he scores a hell of a lot of goals as a midfielder... When you look at what's ahead of him, Klose really is getting on now and Reus's ratio is just as good as Muller's.
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Chompy
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« Reply #78025 on: May 19, 2014, 08:31:53 PM »

Heared Ryan Lowe was going to Oldham as he didn't want to drop into L2. Obv for the money.

He had a cracking record at Bury first time round and will be stuck in as favourite for the L2 Golden Boot I guess.

Be happy to take Luton in a match bet v Bury though.
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« Reply #78026 on: May 19, 2014, 09:06:26 PM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/western-conference/winner

Nice commission free arb for you all at lads and hills if you can get on.  Nice 1% tax free risk free return on your capital for 2 weeks.  Better than the bank's pay.
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ripple11
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« Reply #78027 on: May 19, 2014, 09:23:33 PM »

Sri Lanka are 2.16 on bf to beat England tomorrow in the T20 at the Oval

thats the world T20 champions against T20 strugglers

I think they are an odds on shot, and the price way over-estimates england home advantage

in this weather the conditions will be as familiar as the Sri Lankans are ever going to get in mid May in England, and i think 1-11 they are a better side, much better in bowling (england bowling attack Jordan, woakes, bresnan, gurney, tredwell)

http://www.betpal.com/england-v-sri-lanka-t20-cricket-international-20th-may

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-sri-lanka/t20-series/england-v-sri-lanka/winner


Another vote for SL.
Agree our bowling looks well below the standard of SL, and I see they beat Sussex by 10 wks yesterday!, only taking 9 over to score 128 runs!.
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tikay
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« Reply #78028 on: May 19, 2014, 09:30:04 PM »

Sri Lanka are 2.16 on bf to beat England tomorrow in the T20 at the Oval

thats the world T20 champions against T20 strugglers

I think they are an odds on shot, and the price way over-estimates england home advantage

in this weather the conditions will be as familiar as the Sri Lankans are ever going to get in mid May in England, and i think 1-11 they are a better side, much better in bowling (england bowling attack Jordan, woakes, bresnan, gurney, tredwell)

http://www.betpal.com/england-v-sri-lanka-t20-cricket-international-20th-may

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-sri-lanka/t20-series/england-v-sri-lanka/winner

---



In other news Bury sign Ryan "20 goals in a relegated side" Lowe for league 2 next year. 10-1 for league two will be shorter come August 

not for thread yet http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/next-season-winner but worth an eye on, alongside Luton

Thanks Rich.

We went with Betfair Exchange, and had £43.10 @ 2.16, to win £50.

BET PLACED
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GreekWay
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« Reply #78029 on: May 19, 2014, 09:33:32 PM »

Sri Lanka are 2.16 on bf to beat England tomorrow in the T20 at the Oval

thats the world T20 champions against T20 strugglers

I think they are an odds on shot, and the price way over-estimates england home advantage

in this weather the conditions will be as familiar as the Sri Lankans are ever going to get in mid May in England, and i think 1-11 they are a better side, much better in bowling (england bowling attack Jordan, woakes, bresnan, gurney, tredwell)

http://www.betpal.com/england-v-sri-lanka-t20-cricket-international-20th-may

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-sri-lanka/t20-series/england-v-sri-lanka/winner

---



In other news Bury sign Ryan "20 goals in a relegated side" Lowe for league 2 next year. 10-1 for league two will be shorter come August  

not for thread yet http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/next-season-winner but worth an eye on, alongside Luton

Thanks Rich.

We went with Betfair Exchange, and had £43.10 @ 2.16, to win £50.

BET PLACED

You might have to get an account with Matchbook exchange as they very often offer better odds than Betfair and many bookies. You are losing value.
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