Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Not the sort of price to butter my parsnips normally, but the Newark By-Election happens on 5 June, with a competition to see who replaces Patrick Mercer.

The full list of candidates, in alphabetical order by surname, is:

Baggaley, Paul Stephen - Independent
Bishop, David Laurence - Bus-Pass Elvis Party
Brick, Nick The Flying - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Hayes, Andy - Independent
Helmer, Roger - UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Jenrick, Robert Edward - The Conservative Party
Kirwan, David Charles - Green Party
Payne, Michael - Labour Party
Rodgers, Dick - Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britain's Money
Watts, David Kenneth - Liberal Democrat
Woods, Lee - Patriotic Socialist Party

Here's a rundown of the 2010 ballot box:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/who-could-win-the-newark-by-election/

Billy Mountain makes the Tories 4/9 favourites to retain their seat. Paddy is as short as 1/3. The main concerns are:

1. It's a by-election and people either don't vote or vote to make a statement against the government; and
2. The guy who has left his seat because of a scandal was a Tory

Can't do much about the second one, but we can address the first. The main danger is UKIP, of course. However, their chap just came out (no pun intended...ok, pun slightly intended) with this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/roger-helmer-mep-at-centre-of-homophobia-row-unveiled-as-ukip-candidate-for-newark-byelection-9327582.html

Labour don't fancy trying:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

It's hard to see how the Tories lose this. 4/9 seems huge.

[TightEnd]

Have been watching like a rotund hawk, waiting for the market on the libdems to lose their deposit, but no sign of one yet.

i alighted on this instead http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats

should surely get annihilated in the euros (no longer a vote for protest, they sold their principles for the coalition etc etc), and reckon under 3.5 at 4/6 is far too long a price

The latest poll I saw on Channel Four was predicting just two seats for the Liberal Democrats

this was april polling



may polling has them 5th behind the greens

as shown in
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/may/19/forecasting-european-election-everything-you-need-to-know

which i quote from

"On all projections it is the Liberal Democrats who look set to take the biggest pounding. Our uniform swing sees them getting 7.4% of the national vote, which would lead to their number of MEPs shrinking from 12 to just one. What's worse for them is that their one MEP in the south east would be taken extremely narrowly. "

and ther article concludes by asking Could the Lib Dems come fourth and get no MEPs? (to which the answer is yes)

its a PP market, so not for the thread we can't get on, but for those interested 4/6 under 3.5 seats is either wildly over-optimistic or a stale price

[horseplayer]

This was a fair prediction from 2002!!

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Not the sort of price to butter my parsnips normally, but the Newark By-Election happens on 5 June, with a competition to see who replaces Patrick Mercer.

The full list of candidates, in alphabetical order by surname, is:

Baggaley, Paul Stephen - Independent
Bishop, David Laurence - Bus-Pass Elvis Party
Brick, Nick The Flying - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Hayes, Andy - Independent
Helmer, Roger - UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Jenrick, Robert Edward - The Conservative Party
Kirwan, David Charles - Green Party
Payne, Michael - Labour Party
Rodgers, Dick - Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britain's Money
Watts, David Kenneth - Liberal Democrat
Woods, Lee - Patriotic Socialist Party

Here's a rundown of the 2010 ballot box:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/who-could-win-the-newark-by-election/

Billy Mountain makes the Tories 4/9 favourites to retain their seat. Paddy is as short as 1/3. The main concerns are:

1. It's a by-election and people either don't vote or vote to make a statement against the government; and
2. The guy who has left his seat because of a scandal was a Tory

Can't do much about the second one, but we can address the first. The main danger is UKIP, of course. However, their chap just came out (no pun intended...ok, pun slightly intended) with this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/roger-helmer-mep-at-centre-of-homophobia-row-unveiled-as-ukip-candidate-for-newark-byelection-9327582.html

Labour don't fancy trying:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

It's hard to see how the Tories lose this. 4/9 seems huge.

fwiw

Roger Helmer ‏@RogerHelmerMEP

Sorry to spoil a good rumour, but I'm afraid I have not been arrested by the police.


i have a view, but will see if there are other opinions first

[TightEnd]

Will post on the WC discussion thread as well, but I reckon Marco Reus might be worth a speculative punt at 7/1 to be Germany's top goalscorer.

Loew absolutely loves him and he scores a hell of a lot of goals as a midfielder... When you look at what's ahead of him, Klose really is getting on now and Reus's ratio is just as good as Muller's.

maiden recommendation, so by tradition you get a spin Mr Keeper, as follows

16 Jun 2014 - World Cup 2014 - Germany Team Markets - Top Team Goalscorer - Dead Heat Rules Apply

Marco Reus @ 7/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
160.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000960/F
Total Stake : £20.00

All bets are accepted in accordance with the William Hill Betting Rules, as published on this site.

good luck



(by the by the £20 william hill free bet has lapsed, not now available. there didn't seem to be an expiry when it was visible, but there must be a time limit, to bear in mind for next time, as i intended to use it here)

[Tal]

Not the sort of price to butter my parsnips normally, but the Newark By-Election happens on 5 June, with a competition to see who replaces Patrick Mercer.

The full list of candidates, in alphabetical order by surname, is:

Baggaley, Paul Stephen - Independent
Bishop, David Laurence - Bus-Pass Elvis Party
Brick, Nick The Flying - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Hayes, Andy - Independent
Helmer, Roger - UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Jenrick, Robert Edward - The Conservative Party
Kirwan, David Charles - Green Party
Payne, Michael - Labour Party
Rodgers, Dick - Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britain's Money
Watts, David Kenneth - Liberal Democrat
Woods, Lee - Patriotic Socialist Party

Here's a rundown of the 2010 ballot box:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/who-could-win-the-newark-by-election/

Billy Mountain makes the Tories 4/9 favourites to retain their seat. Paddy is as short as 1/3. The main concerns are:

1. It's a by-election and people either don't vote or vote to make a statement against the government; and
2. The guy who has left his seat because of a scandal was a Tory

Can't do much about the second one, but we can address the first. The main danger is UKIP, of course. However, their chap just came out (no pun intended...ok, pun slightly intended) with this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/roger-helmer-mep-at-centre-of-homophobia-row-unveiled-as-ukip-candidate-for-newark-byelection-9327582.html

Labour don't fancy trying:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

It's hard to see how the Tories lose this. 4/9 seems huge.

fwiw

Roger Helmer ‏@RogerHelmerMEP

Sorry to spoil a good rumour, but I'm afraid I have not been arrested by the police.


i have a view, but will see if there are other opinions first

Fair enough. Just seems a stale price to me, given recent events and what seems to be a recent desire amongst the main parties to shine a negative light on UKIP.

Can understand if we think locking up money for two weeks in the current political landscape is too risky. Am interested in any views as to why the Tories don't win 2/3 of the time.

[ripple11]

Not the sort of price to butter my parsnips normally, but the Newark By-Election happens on 5 June, with a competition to see who replaces Patrick Mercer.

The full list of candidates, in alphabetical order by surname, is:

Baggaley, Paul Stephen - Independent
Bishop, David Laurence - Bus-Pass Elvis Party
Brick, Nick The Flying - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Hayes, Andy - Independent
Helmer, Roger - UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Jenrick, Robert Edward - The Conservative Party
Kirwan, David Charles - Green Party
Payne, Michael - Labour Party
Rodgers, Dick - Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britain's Money
Watts, David Kenneth - Liberal Democrat
Woods, Lee - Patriotic Socialist Party

Here's a rundown of the 2010 ballot box:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/who-could-win-the-newark-by-election/

Billy Mountain makes the Tories 4/9 favourites to retain their seat. Paddy is as short as 1/3. The main concerns are:

1. It's a by-election and people either don't vote or vote to make a statement against the government; and
2. The guy who has left his seat because of a scandal was a Tory

Can't do much about the second one, but we can address the first. The main danger is UKIP, of course. However, their chap just came out (no pun intended...ok, pun slightly intended) with this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/roger-helmer-mep-at-centre-of-homophobia-row-unveiled-as-ukip-candidate-for-newark-byelection-9327582.html

Labour don't fancy trying:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-boosted-by-labour-decision-to-soft-pedal-in-newark-byelection-9350087.html

It's hard to see how the Tories lose this. 4/9 seems huge.

A little snippet to strengthen the case :

Interesting that Robert Jenrick achieved an increase in the vote at Newcastle-u-Lyme in 2010 that was well above the national average, taking him within 1.5K votes of winning.

Saw Helmer on Question time the other week....ex Tory,experienced, who came across OK, as far as a UKIP candidate can. Will definite take Tory votes ....but as you say,surely not enough.

[Teacake]

This was a fair prediction from 2002!!

Click to see full-size image.

That's some going usually those sorts of predictions end up laughably bad.

[rinswun]

That article was written in October 2013. Was a look back to where they were in 2002 - last time they qualified for the World Cup. Unfortunately the date, which is at the top of the original article, has been cropped off.

[Tal]

That article was written in October 2013. Was a look back to where they were in 2002 - last time they qualified for the World Cup. Unfortunately the date, which is at the top of the original article, has been cropped off.

Also, no Chadli?

[TightEnd]

David 'Bumble' Lloyd ‏@BumbleCricket

“@onlyfoolsgamble: @BumbleCricket England are favs with the bookies Bumble....SL underdogs” Not on my book ....



hope he's right!

[TheDazzler]

I love Tightys Lib Dems bet.
We have a lot of coalition governments here in Ireland and the smaller coalition party always gets obiliterated when it comes to council/Euro elections. The Irish Labour party is in that situation here now and is likely to be wiped off the board. The Green party was in coalition a while back, it also got completely wiped out.

So I was going to have a bet on that. But I had no money left on Paddy Power. But by a happy coincidence the last bet I had with them was 30 euros @ 13/8 that Ryan Giggs wouldn't play a Premier game next season. He retired today so I expected them to pay up. It's not there. So I message chat.
 

Eimear Hi, my name is Eimear. How may I help you?
You Hi, I have a bet on Ryan Giggs not playing next season. Any time frame on paying that out?
Eimear Hi Tom, I can look into that, one moment please.
Eimear First for security purposes, could you please confirm your mother’s maiden name and the last four digits of the active debit/credit card on the account?
You XXXX, XXXX
Eimear Thank you Tom, Please bare with me one moment please, while I look into this for you now, sorry for the delay.
You It's 'bear' with me, not 'bare' with me. Unless you want me to disrobe
You No offence intended but I'm a grammer nazi
Eimear I usually am too, I did have it as bear but I was unsure and changed it so your selection was on the 2014/2015 season so I'm afraid that you will have to wait for that season to be over Tom
You Ummm, you have to be kidding me! He retited today.
You retired *
Eimear I can send it onto our settlement team and they can look at it as they haven't settled it yet, so it would be up to them, we will email you back when they get back to us can you confirm your email address as XXXXXXXX@hotmail.com
You That is my email address, yes. Obviously, by the letter of the law, you are correct on the bet but I think common sense should prevail.
You I wouldn't have placed it otherwise.
Eimear I will send it on now for you and we will get back to you once the settlement team let us know, sorry for the inconvenience Tom
You Ok, thx Eimear. ASAP please as I want to place a bet
Eimear Ok will send it now Tom
Eimear has disconnected.

Seriously? Surely they'll pay?
Also, such a liar on the bear/bare thing. She did not change it!

[exstream]

Scholes came out of retirement to play again

[TightEnd]

Never mind Tom, at least you weren't being a grammer nazi :-))))

[TheDazzler]

Never mind Tom, at least you weren't being a grammer nazi :-))))

Ooooh, ironic. I.....ummmmm......did that on purpose........to see if she would pick up on it. Errrrr, yeah.
Well done Mr. Tightend, well spotted.