Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

http://www.williamhill.com/en/nui/free-bet/?var3=en/nui/free-bet/#http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/addtoslip?action=BuildSlip&sel=251491580&price=y&ew=n&url=http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en/betting/e/1112310/Next%2dUK%2dGeneral%2dElection%2dResult

UKIP more likely to be the next outright govt in uk than england winning the world cup this summer according to hills!  Incredible scenes

For those who don't mind taken advantage of stan james' 'evenmorelolthannormal traders' they made a totally illogical rick on their outright majority market last night for the next general election.  They were ahead of the game early this morning and shifted labour out to 10/11 on their own and cut the tories in the most seats market. wpwp stan very impressive  The problem started when the loltrader in question moved onto the 2nd market 'overall majority' which is obviously directly linked to the most seats market.  He then decided to cut the tories as expected in line with his previous moves in the other market.  However he decided to push out 'no overall majority to 7/4 rather than shorten that as well as it's obviously far more likely to happen now the race between the tories and labour is virtually a flip.  People are asking for well under 6/4 on this on betfair.  Not sure if anyone can get on with stan but it's worth an interest if you can.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority

[action man]

just heard froma  good source that the stable think a lot of it but couldn't recommend a bet because it never shows what it does at home on the track. #runitathillgallops #excusesalready

[Doobs]

coral

Dream And Search16/12:00 Haydock - 23/05/2014
£20 Each Way 1/5 1,2,3
Stake £40.00
Estimated Return:£424.00
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Return: £424.00

I looked ew too but a win bet was the reccy. Paging officer doobs

You tell 'em Jeff.

Got your Text, thanks, will reply next week. Normal service will be resumed when you get back on my Diary.

Have been out for the morning, but I did check this when the bet was placed and the place price beat Betfair.  So think the price was fine at the time, even of it has now drifted and we have multiple non runners. 

Just because you don't always notice the thread rozzers doesn't mean they aren't there. 

[Tal]

27 on the exchange, chaps

[arbboy]

couldnt resisit an interest at these bf prices.  gl trigg.

[Junior Senior]

when will we know if the lib dems unders bet is a winner?

[Tal]

when will we know if the lib dems unders bet is a winner?

Early next week

[doubleup]

coral

Dream And Search16/12:00 Haydock - 23/05/2014
£20 Each Way 1/5 1,2,3
Stake £40.00
Estimated Return:£424.00
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Return: £424.00

I looked ew too but a win bet was the reccy. Paging officer doobs

i chose e/w

11 runners, 16-1 shot, seemed standard

it's now 14/1 in an 8 runner race 1/5 odds 1,2,3.

should we back it e/w or win only app 17-1 on Betfair (5/2 to place)?

For each-way bets where the bookies place odds are higher but win odds are lower, you can compare the odds using this spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Byg8Wbbo5p2ucDN2WVdueENUYzA/edit

But be aware that there is always the risk of a late non-runner in 8 and 16 runner races.

[Tal]

Pochettino rumoured to have agreed to stay at Southampton

[TightEnd]

Geoffrey Chaucer has been backed in overnight from 12s to 7-1 for the Derby.

another "listen" to dodge next weekend

[sonour]

As a general rule I almost always bet ew if the race is a 12-runner handicap, a 16-23 runner handicap, 24+ runners with 5-places and 8 or 9 runners a 5th. I also bet ew if it's a "bad" ew race (the win price of the horse causes the place part to be out of whack, often due to a short-price favourite or two short ones at the front of the market).

 I hardly ever bet ew in 15-runner handicaps, 11 runner handicaps, 7-runner non-handicaps.

 Rules are there to be broken of course but other factors are how solid is it? Don't like backing horses over a new trip (up in trip), on ground they have never won on, 1st time back from long lay-off, or 1st time in a handicap ew. These are "win or come nowhere". Really like backing dodgepots and down in trip, consistant types ew even when I don't massively fancy them to win.

 As usual, if in doubt, check the place market on the machine. Any 16-runner handicap 14 of them will be 7/4 to 4/1 a place when they are 8/1 to 20/1 to win. Almost impossible to have a bad bet in those races, especially if you bet horses with recent form over c and d.

 I think many industry pundits and journos are v lazy and suggest ew if it's 6/1 or more and win-only if it's less.

Ooh, I did enjoy that.

Am I sad or am I a geek ? I know I'm a sad geek.

Thanks Neil.

[arbboy]

As a general rule I almost always bet ew if the race is a 12-runner handicap, a 16-23 runner handicap, 24+ runners with 5-places and 8 or 9 runners a 5th. I also bet ew if it's a "bad" ew race (the win price of the horse causes the place part to be out of whack, often due to a short-price favourite or two short ones at the front of the market).

 I hardly ever bet ew in 15-runner handicaps, 11 runner handicaps, 7-runner non-handicaps.

 Rules are there to be broken of course but other factors are how solid is it? Don't like backing horses over a new trip (up in trip), on ground they have never won on, 1st time back from long lay-off, or 1st time in a handicap ew. These are "win or come nowhere". Really like backing dodgepots and down in trip, consistant types ew even when I don't massively fancy them to win.

 As usual, if in doubt, check the place market on the machine. Any 16-runner handicap 14 of them will be 7/4 to 4/1 a place when they are 8/1 to 20/1 to win. Almost impossible to have a bad bet in those races, especially if you bet horses with recent form over c and d.

 I think many industry pundits and journos are v lazy and suggest ew if it's 6/1 or more and win-only if it's less.

Ooh, I did enjoy that.

Am I sad or am I a geek ? I know I'm a sad geek.

Thanks Neil.

you are a confirmed geek mrs bandit! You love the game.

[Doobs]

Geoffrey Chaucer has been backed in overnight from 12s to 7-1 for the Derby.

another "listen" to dodge next weekend

Going to be some each way race that with those two at the top.  Think we are best waiting for running plans to be sure, but Tikay better prepare the powder.  Should be safe to bet given it is such a big race too (having said that I wouldn't be do sure with Ladbrokes).

[JaffaCake]

coral

Dream And Search16/12:00 Haydock - 23/05/2014
£20 Each Way 1/5 1,2,3
Stake £40.00
Estimated Return:£424.00
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Return: £424.00

I looked ew too but a win bet was the reccy. Paging officer doobs

You tell 'em Jeff.

Got your Text, thanks, will reply next week. Normal service will be resumed when you get back on my Diary.

That bloody diary gets more spam than next door on here....when i get time I'll dig up my Mike Ashley question.

As I said in my (instant) reply to your text message, if it takes a week to get a reply u may as well post me a letter!

Have copy and pasted Neil's reply into my 'Be a Better Bettor' file

[Tal]

Just to give you notice, Jeff:

if it takes a week to get a reply u may as well post me a letter!

I am stealing this. Brilliant.