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horseplayer
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« Reply #78960 on: May 30, 2014, 02:01:00 PM » |
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Groves to win on points is 4/1 with Choral. For some reason they seem to want to lay this and I know a few who have been laid a few hundred on accounts that usually have some restriction which is a bit weird.
You can lay 4.7 on Betfair which even paying a full 5% is a decent arb.
Recommend £25 for Fred at 4/1 as clearly the wrong price. Having read the various opinions on here and listened to opinions I respect I think this is a better bet than just the maths in it too.
Would someone explain this to me (laymans terms). I'm assuming you mean back Groves to win 4/1 on points with Coral. But what exactly are you laying at 4.7? Is what your doing essentially guarenteeing yourself profit from a 'spread'? Thanks in advance You are basically 'buying' a bet at 4/1 and selling it to someone else at 3.7/1 therefore retain the 0.3/1 edge for urself with no risk (assuming no commission on bf) Commission on betfair makes it slightly more complicated Assuming prices are the same as yesterday and you are a 5% commision player on betfair A total stake outlay of £497.86 will win you £2.14 if the bet wins or £2.15 if the bet loses. If you feel that is worth the outlay then fair enough |
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JoeBeevers
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« Reply #78961 on: May 30, 2014, 02:02:35 PM » |
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Groves to win on points is 4/1 with Choral. For some reason they seem to want to lay this and I know a few who have been laid a few hundred on accounts that usually have some restriction which is a bit weird.
You can lay 4.7 on Betfair which even paying a full 5% is a decent arb.
Recommend £25 for Fred at 4/1 as clearly the wrong price. Having read the various opinions on here and listened to opinions I respect I think this is a better bet than just the maths in it too.
Would someone explain this to me (laymans terms). I'm assuming you mean back Groves to win 4/1 on points with Coral. But what exactly are you laying at 4.7? Is what your doing essentially guarenteeing yourself profit from a 'spread'? Thanks in advance You are basically 'buying' a bet at 4/1 and selling it to someone else at 3.7/1 therefore retain the 0.3/1 edge for urself with no risk (assuming no commission on bf) Commission on betfair makes it slightly more complicated I wasn't actually recommending the arb, just pointing it out. It's only a small arb after commission anyway ;-). I was simply showing that it was a value bet. |
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tikay
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« Reply #78962 on: May 30, 2014, 05:13:38 PM » |
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A minor quiz. My brother is racing here this weekend. Where is it?
Zandvoort?
lots of orange in the crowd.former F1 circuit Incred logic, lol, well done Tighty. Great Daily Report, too. |
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016). |
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craigbetts
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« Reply #78963 on: May 30, 2014, 05:26:17 PM » |
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Just wow at Sehwag's knock of 122 off 58 balls. Sets up a huge target for Chennai.
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"We're not here to take part, we're here to take over"
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craigbetts
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« Reply #78964 on: May 30, 2014, 06:28:46 PM » |
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CSK hit 100 off the 1st 6 overs. This is amazing!
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"We're not here to take part, we're here to take over"
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Tal
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« Reply #78965 on: May 30, 2014, 06:57:38 PM » |
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Just seen the weights for tomorrow's fight. Groves going for handspeed over resilience?
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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Bazzaboy
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« Reply #78966 on: May 30, 2014, 07:10:17 PM » |
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Just seen the weights for tomorrow's fight. Groves going for handspeed over resilience?
Coming in that far under is generally not a positive. |
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Tal
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« Reply #78967 on: May 30, 2014, 07:15:51 PM » |
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Just seen the weights for tomorrow's fight. Groves going for handspeed over resilience?
Coming in that far under is generally not a positive. No. Especially not for someone who could be a light heavyweight. |
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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redarmi
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« Reply #78968 on: May 30, 2014, 07:41:58 PM » |
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He didn't look bad for it though.
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TheDazzler
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« Reply #78969 on: May 30, 2014, 08:02:02 PM » |
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Just seen the weights for tomorrow's fight. Groves going for handspeed over resilience?
Coming in that far under is generally not a positive. How would you price the match Bazza? |
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Tal
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« Reply #78970 on: May 31, 2014, 12:09:07 AM » |
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McDermott sacked by Leeds.
Cue next manager market debate
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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McGlashan
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« Reply #78971 on: May 31, 2014, 12:49:43 AM » |
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Just seen the weights for tomorrow's fight. Groves going for handspeed over resilience?
Coming in that far under is generally not a positive. How would you price the match Bazza? My name's not Bazza but over in the boxing thread Bazza & co estimated George Groves closing price would be somewhere around the 6/5 range, this was back when the re-match was first announced. GG coming in light at today's weigh in justifies the market drift since yesterday's discussion. Coral have constantly gone best price on Groves. They also re-tweeted this guys blogpost in which he favours Froch by KO and claims to be a boxing oddsmaker http://www.samfoulkes.com/ |
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The Baron
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« Reply #78972 on: May 31, 2014, 01:00:07 AM » |
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Just seen the weights for tomorrow's fight. Groves going for handspeed over resilience?
Coming in that far under is generally not a positive. Usually would agree but he's not been sat in a sauna to then land that far under. Looking at his physique this looks very much like his gameplan. If he has the stamina to go with his clearly increased speed advantage this will be a tough night for Froch IMO. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #78973 on: May 31, 2014, 01:12:26 AM » |
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Just seen the weights for tomorrow's fight. Groves going for handspeed over resilience?
Coming in that far under is generally not a positive. How would you price the match Bazza? My name's not Bazza but over in the boxing thread Bazza & co estimated George Groves closing price would be somewhere around the 6/5 range, this was back when the re-match was first announced. GG coming in light at today's weigh in justifies the market drift since yesterday's discussion. Coral have constantly gone best price on Groves. They also re-tweeted this guys blogpost in which he favours Froch by KO and claims to be a boxing oddsmaker http://www.samfoulkes.com/I have read that piece three times and I am still not sure why he thinks he should be top priced about Groves. I get he thinks Froch will win but...... |
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sonour
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« Reply #78974 on: May 31, 2014, 01:15:38 AM » |
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Warrington 24 Leeds 6
Thank you Hector
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