Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Did Fred back Western Hymn in The Derby?

If so how much?

29-May   doobs   williamhill   7-Jun   horses   Derby   Western Hymn   16/1   40   £20 e/w 1/4 1,2,3   


is there room for another one each way?

orchestra perhaps?

cheers Rich, might get back to you later.

[TightEnd]

What's hectors roi?

Positive. Individual ROIs aren't public.

I don't think this is about Hector per se, who obviously is a valued poster. More the principle of "value" in big efficient markets

Referring back to another point, more racing and golf bets would be welcome, if the opportunity arrives

[horseplayer]

Surely worth holding back now on the Derby

No doubt there will be at least some offers on the morning of the race

[Doobs]

Did Fred back Western Hymn in The Derby?

If so how much?

29-May   doobs   williamhill   7-Jun   horses   Derby   Western Hymn   16/1   40   £20 e/w 1/4 1,2,3   


is there room for another one each way?

orchestra perhaps?

Don't think the market is that great at the minute.  I am looking for each ways vs the top 2, but we aren't getting the value today.

Western Hymn is now 17/1 on Betfair, 14/1 with Bookies, so you lose too much on the win and make nothing on the place.  So you should probably just go the Betfair route.

Orchestra is similar 20/1 Betfair, 16/1 bookies.  So you lose vs Betfair on both win and place.

i was looking at True Story too, but we missed that boat.

Think we may just have to wait this one out until Saturday.  Hopefully some of them will go mad and offer 4 places or similar.

[DungBeetle]

What's hectors roi?

My point isn't about Hector.  His ROI might be huge from trading on the more obscure tournaments.

My point is that I doubt that we can turn a profit betting each day on the later rounds of the slam as the prices will most likely be correct.

[arbboy]

No one on tft bets has got a sample size of bets anywhere near big enough to make solid conclusions about their long term ROI.  My view on the whole issue is these big liquidity main event market's are that they are tough to beat but they are beatable in certain spots otherwise the prices would be rock solid and never move from opening to closing show and this just doesn't happen in reality. 

The Froch Groves fight at the weekend was really interesting to watch on betfair 2 hours before the fight til the bell the prices were literally totally rock solid in the last 2 hours and barely moved a spot either way.  This is incredible for an event of this size and the sheer amount of once a year punters having a bet on the event potentially distorting the market but the prices held totally strong.  If you compare this to the Hatton Mayweather fight several years ago it was the total opposite when the sheer weight of mug cash for Hatton pushed Money to a quite insane price and the pros eventually stepped in late on to correct the market.

[bobby1]

Did Fred back Western Hymn in The Derby?

If so how much?

29-May   doobs   williamhill   7-Jun   horses   Derby   Western Hymn   16/1   40   £20 e/w 1/4 1,2,3   


is there room for another one each way?

orchestra perhaps?

Don't think the market is that great at the minute.  I am looking for each ways vs the top 2, but we aren't getting the value today.

Western Hymn is now 17/1 on Betfair, 14/1 with Bookies, so you lose too much on the win and make nothing on the place.  So you should probably just go the Betfair route.

Orchestra is similar 20/1 Betfair, 16/1 bookies.  So you lose vs Betfair on both win and place.

i was looking at True Story too, but we missed that boat.

Think we may just have to wait this one out until Saturday.  Hopefully some of them will go mad and offer 4 places or similar.

very much agree with this and Horsey. Will be fighting for punters come Saturday.

[horseplayer]

Can see why people question the value on big events like this.

Not speaking for Hector but tft is hardly awash with bets or suggestions for bets the last few weeks indeed without his offerings bets would be very sparse.

I am repeating myself here but this thread was never meant to be about just betting like a pro would. It was primarily about fun and trying to make a profit (which it has achieved)

[BigAdz]

Can see why people question the value on big events like this.

Not speaking for Hector but tft is hardly awash with bets or suggestions for bets the last few weeks indeed without his offerings bets would be very sparse.

I am repeating myself here but this thread was never meant to be about just betting like a pro would. It was primarily about fun and trying to make a profit (which it has achieved)

[Skippy]

"Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  "

I'm sorry - but the idea that bookies don't know who Verdasco is, is simply laughable. 

The bookie's also know who the Buffalo Bills are, but when they play the NY Jets most of the money is on the NY Jets side because they are a big market more famous team. I'm going to have to dig up Channing's post now...

[DungBeetle]

"Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  "

I'm sorry - but the idea that bookies don't know who Verdasco is, is simply laughable. 

The bookie's also know who the Buffalo Bills are, but when they play the NY Jets most of the money is on the NY Jets side because they are a big market more famous team. I'm going to have to dig up Channing's post now...

Verdasco has always been an attractive player for punters to back on clay.  I'd go as far as to say if there is any artificial bias then it will be from people laying Murray because "he's no good on clay". 

In any case - what is your position - that Verdasco should be favourite for this match and is only dog because the punters somehow "love" backing Murray at poor odds on clay against a known dirtballer?

[arbboy]

Can see why people question the value on big events like this.

Not speaking for Hector but tft is hardly awash with bets or suggestions for bets the last few weeks indeed without his offerings bets would be very sparse.

I am repeating myself here but this thread was never meant to be about just betting like a pro would. It was primarily about fun and trying to make a profit (which it has achieved)

This is exactly what the thread is about and i don't put up the vast majority of my bets for this reason because they are not really fun and it would be too time consuming.  I wanted to put up Josuha at 1/100 for his fight at the weekend but it doesn't really fit with the fun side of the thread even though the 1/100 was value.

[Doobs]

"Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  "

I'm sorry - but the idea that bookies don't know who Verdasco is, is simply laughable. 

The bookie's also know who the Buffalo Bills are, but when they play the NY Jets most of the money is on the NY Jets side because they are a big market more famous team. I'm going to have to dig up Channing's post now...

It just doesn't apply in Murray's case though.  No idea what you go for a living, but if you did a straw poll in your office what percentage want Murray to win?  I wouldn't like to guess which way it goes, but for a long time I have felt in the minority in Murray arguments.  So there is likely as much anti-Murray money as pro Murray even in the UK.  

We can even check this on oddschecker, where if you open it now you will see anti-Murray is still the more popular bet today.  A couple of years ago I think the anti-Murrat sentiment was even worse.

[DungBeetle]

"Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  "

I'm sorry - but the idea that bookies don't know who Verdasco is, is simply laughable. 

The bookie's also know who the Buffalo Bills are, but when they play the NY Jets most of the money is on the NY Jets side because they are a big market more famous team. I'm going to have to dig up Channing's post now...

It just doesn't apply in Murray's case though.  No idea what you go for a living, but if you did a straw poll in your office what percentage want Murray to win?  I wouldn't like to guess which way it goes, but for a long time I have felt in the minority in Murray arguments.  So there is likely as much anti-Murray money as pro Murray even in the UK.  

We can even check this on oddschecker, where if you open it now you will see anti-Murray is still the more popular bet today.  A couple of years ago I think the anti-Murrat sentiment was even worse.

Agree.  And if you browse the betfair tennis forum, poor old Murray must get more grief than any other player apart from Davydenko and Paire down the years.  I'm a big fan, but if you were a non tennis fan reading the posts you'd think he was a right mug.

All this said I see he he is getting smashed to pieces in a opening points of this match

[arbboy]

Does anyone else think Murray has over achieved in his career?  I am not a Murray hater i just think he has maybe over achieved in his career slightly given his talent level.