Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

No one on tft bets has got a sample size of bets anywhere near big enough to make solid conclusions about their long term ROI.  My view on the whole issue is these big liquidity main event market's are that they are tough to beat but they are beatable in certain spots otherwise the prices would be rock solid and never move from opening to closing show and this just doesn't happen in reality.  

The Froch Groves fight at the weekend was really interesting to watch on betfair 2 hours before the fight til the bell the prices were literally totally rock solid in the last 2 hours and barely moved a spot either way.  This is incredible for an event of this size and the sheer amount of once a year punters having a bet on the event potentially distorting the market but the prices held totally strong.  If you compare this to the Hatton Mayweather fight several years ago it was the total opposite when the sheer weight of mug cash for Hatton pushed Money to a quite insane price and the pros eventually stepped in late on to correct the market.

Can you remember Tyson v Bruno Arb?

Think it was 1/10 first show in the UK and about 1/6 the day before the fight and went off 4/11 Tyson at about 3 or 4 am just before it started, most of the UK punters just backed Bruno.No BF back then and no internet betting so was a mainly UK only market and was a huge arb between the UK market and Vegas Sportsbook prices on the off.


So back to the other point tho Skippy, these days that weight of UKcentric money isn't going to have that kind of affect anymore and the punters around the globe are a much bigger market.
I remember a line from Martin Kaymer after he won the USPGA when one of the comms ridiculously asked him why US players were faring so badly in recent majors and he replied 'well the US is a big place but the rest of the world is bigger' and that's the way the punting landscape has gone too for lots of UK firms on some events.

I think Greekway was talking about Basketball the other day, the amount of cash bet on Eurobasket by European punters with UK firms is incredible (honestly it is). Things like beach volleyball, handball, netball and table tennis turnover must be well over 75% overseas cash too.


Edit, i've just realised you might be offended as the fight was 1989 and you might be 30 years old ;o)

[DungBeetle]

Does anyone else think Murray has over achieved in his career?  I am not a Murray hater i just think he has maybe over achieved in his career slightly given his talent level.

Not for me - there was a point when the big 4 were way above the rest about 3/4 years ago.  I think he should have secured another slam or two in that period.  Think he became too defensive.

He's a great player imo but quite possibly his golden slam harvesting window has passed.

[arbboy]

I don't remember that Bruno fight from a punting angle.  I wasn't sure what year it was but in 1989 i was 14.  I remember watching it but had no punting thoughts at all at that time.  4/11 Tyson in 1989 must have been max bet material and every firm in the uk would have been happy to accommodate you to balance their action presumably having laid fortunes of bruno at 7/4 or 15/8.  Well before my time but 10% tax would have been an issue to stop any arbing surely in those days?

Love the Kaymer quote.  I can imagine a German would have took massive enjoyment from saying that to some clueless yank comm!

[bobby1]

Does anyone else think Murray has over achieved in his career?  I am not a Murray hater i just think he has maybe over achieved in his career slightly given his talent level.

I don't follow tennis very closely  but hasn't he been really unlucky to be a very very good tennis player in an era when there were a unprecedented amount of legendary world class male tennis players?

[arbboy]

Does anyone else think Murray has over achieved in his career?  I am not a Murray hater i just think he has maybe over achieved in his career slightly given his talent level.

I don't follow tennis very closely  but hasn't he been really unlucky to be a very very good tennis player in an era when there were a unprecedented amount of legendary world class male tennis players?

This was my angle the fact that he has even won 2 slams during this period.  He literally can't win the French every year and has had to face the greatest player of all time every year as well as Rafa/Djork.  I think he has done very well with his relative talent level to those three to win two majors.

[DungBeetle]

Haha - yeah - if only he could have popped up just after Sampras/Agassi when Roddick, Hewiitt, Gaudio and Nalbandian were the men to beat!

[DungBeetle]

Does anyone remember how amazing Guillermo Coria was on clay before he suddenly vanished completely with the serving yips?

I remember just before he went into excile he managed to serve a full game of 4 consecutive double faults. 

[Skippy]

"Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  "

I'm sorry - but the idea that bookies don't know who Verdasco is, is simply laughable. 

The bookie's also know who the Buffalo Bills are, but when they play the NY Jets most of the money is on the NY Jets side because they are a big market more famous team. I'm going to have to dig up Channing's post now...

It just doesn't apply in Murray's case though.  No idea what you go for a living, but if you did a straw poll in your office what percentage want Murray to win?  I wouldn't like to guess which way it goes, but for a long time I have felt in the minority in Murray arguments.  So there is likely as much anti-Murray money as pro Murray even in the UK.  

We can even check this on oddschecker, where if you open it now you will see anti-Murray is still the more popular bet today.  A couple of years ago I think the anti-Murrat sentiment was even worse.

I'm not trying to argue that people love Murray and are betting on him in the same way as "patriotic" England betting in football is supposed to work. I'm trying to suggest that he is "more famous" in the mind of the tennis betting public and perceived as being better. I'm suggesting that perception lags behind reality and that's why Hector is finding value in consistently opposing him. I'd argue that Hector pulled off the same trick yesterday by opposing Federer who will be perceived as "being better", a perception that Hector argued was out of date then too. I'm suggesting that the bookies might know this, but have failed to adjust their prices because they want to split the handle not the result. Or maybe the bookies suffer from "big name syndrome" too?

I'm probably wrong about UK bookies being a factor if you say the UK money is not that significant.

In fact the more I think about this, the more I think I'm talking rubbish. I might have to bow out at this point.

[arbboy]

Haha - yeah - if only he could have popped up just after Sampras/Agassi when Roddick, Hewiitt, Gaudio and Nalbandian were the men to beat!

Add Safin to that list.  I was a tennis lol trader for firms in those days 2002-5 and Safin with a more focused mind should have locked up 5 or 6 slams mimimum in that talentless period between Sampras and Fed arriving.  He is def the biggest under achiever in my lifetime at tennis based on raw talent.

[AlunB]

"Murray is a lot more famous than Verdasco, especially in the UK and we are betting with UK bookies. It's fair to assume most of the action is going to be betting for Murray, out of proportion to his true winning chances. The bookies might reduce Murray's odds, to try and cut their liabilities, even though it gives Verdasco betters value. Or they might just be biased towards Murray too because he is more famous.  "

I'm sorry - but the idea that bookies don't know who Verdasco is, is simply laughable. 

The bookie's also know who the Buffalo Bills are, but when they play the NY Jets most of the money is on the NY Jets side because they are a big market more famous team. I'm going to have to dig up Channing's post now...

It just doesn't apply in Murray's case though.  No idea what you go for a living, but if you did a straw poll in your office what percentage want Murray to win?  I wouldn't like to guess which way it goes, but for a long time I have felt in the minority in Murray arguments.  So there is likely as much anti-Murray money as pro Murray even in the UK.  

We can even check this on oddschecker, where if you open it now you will see anti-Murray is still the more popular bet today.  A couple of years ago I think the anti-Murrat sentiment was even worse.

I'm not trying to argue that people love Murray and are betting on him in the same way as "patriotic" England betting in football is supposed to work. I'm trying to suggest that he is "more famous" in the mind of the tennis betting public and perceived as being better. I'm suggesting that perception lags behind reality and that's why Hector is finding value in consistently opposing him. I'd argue that Hector pulled off the same trick yesterday by opposing Federer who will be perceived as "being better", a perception that Hector argued was out of date then too. I'm suggesting that the bookies might know this, but have failed to adjust their prices because they want to split the handle not the result. Or maybe the bookies suffer from "big name syndrome" too?

I'm probably wrong about UK bookies being a factor if you say the UK money is not that significant.

In fact the more I think about this, the more I think I'm talking rubbish. I might have to bow out at this point.

You really don't get internet arguments at all...

This is like hitting 11 in Blackjack. Time to dig your heels in and double down.

[bobby1]

Haha - yeah - if only he could have popped up just after Sampras/Agassi when Roddick, Hewiitt, Gaudio and Nalbandian were the men to beat!

Maybe Jimmy Connors could have been the last guy to be in a similar boat?  must have been a bit grim running into Bjorg then McEnroe and then Lendl and according to Wiki he still managed 8 major wins

btw Jimmy Connors is now 61 years old.

[AlunB]

Mr Tighty. I assume you've seen the rugby handicaps are out. Are we feeling -18 for the Kiwis is an absolute lump job? Apologies if I've missed this already.

[DungBeetle]

Yes - Safin.  I deliberately left him off my list, because I thought he could have been a genuine great as opposed to just being the best of a mediocre bunch.

[JaffaCake]

Hi tikay, been offline on holiday for a week, back now. Caught up on Fred ofc, think most of your questions were answered by Greeky. The main thing with LeBron's foul trouble is how rare he gets into it, I think he fouled out of a game last season and that was the first time in years (could probs check but u get my point). It's a combo of being really good, and also in basketball it seems that the veteran/name players are given more leeway than the less well known guys. It's also pretty evident that the refs let more go come playoff time, be it general fouls/big guys pushing and shoving in the post (under the basket) for position (remember it's a no contact sport!) or with technical fouls too.

Coaches try and manage their players' fouls throughout the game, so if your player gets more than one foul in the first quarter, picks up his third before half-time, gets his fourth early in the third etc etc, they'll sit that player for a while. As Greeky said, if a player is in foul trouble and the coach wants to leave him in, the opposition coach will go at that player trying to draw another foul. If the player gets his sixth, or gets two technicals, he's out of the game, tho u can bring on a sub to replace him. There was a bizarre Lakers game earlier this season where they only dressed about 7 players, a few got fouled out and in the end they had to invoke some rule  where one of the fouled out guys came back on! And they won. Will look that up for u, first time I ever hear of it.

Technicals are generally for dissent, but vary in severity depending how bad the offence, especially overly violent fouls etc. In general tho, they give away one free throw as well as possession of the ball. I really like the way it works and think football would be better with some kind of system like that.

Anyway, never got a letter or a text off u but am in Vegas from Weds so will be up for watching the Finals with u and any others up for some hoopies. Our portfolio looks great right now.

Interested in the value debate on Fred, think some of our NBA bets have been great value but lost, now hopefully we'll be on the right side of it. Still think this isn't a great season, no stand out side. Brooklyn really missed a trick, we backed them at 20s, coulda got them at 50s through the season and yet they beat the Heat in all four meetings this season, showed what they can do on the big occasion. Tbf to them, they lost their best player to injury but still....

Did u see the NBA draft? Will explain more about it when u see it, but Cleveland got the number one pick for the third time in 4 years, was less than a 2% chance of them getting it again. LeBron, he of Cleveland fame and a native of Cleveland, can also opt out of his contract this summer, or become a free agent next...I wonder

PS I lost all that once and had to retype. On returning from hols my laptop, which previously could survive a mighty 5 mins without being plugged in, now has a red X over the battery icon and says 'No battery is detected' and now just turns off if I unplug, or move the wire! Any ideas techie people/tika?!

[arbboy]

Does anyone remember how amazing Guillermo Coria was on clay before he suddenly vanished completely with the serving yips?

I remember just before he went into excile he managed to serve a full game of 4 consecutive double faults. 

He was an amazing machine at his peak on the dirt.