Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

Southampton are now under 10-1 to be relegated, with the first exit of the off-season

 

think that's the price I mention when we lost MP to spurs papers are reporting koeman is being offered a 50 million war chest and any money received in transfers if he takes job and a primes he only needs to sell who he wants to sell under these circumstances I would be looking to finish top half again 50 million should get us a replacement for lambert and add some depth, but again I read in a tabloid yesterday 9 players are on wish lists of other premiership teams

[DungBeetle]

Tighty - actually from your selections I think dutching the two straight forecasts on Swiss and French may be the way to go?  I don't fancy Honduras to put a fly in the ointment.

ok, horsey was a bit more positive on ecuador

will get a few more opinions, no rush, on whether to bet/what market is best before stepping in

As will be seen if he players against England without stretching it if Montero plays well on the left wing then they will do better than suggested, if he doesnt they will go out.

Very simplified but he is very up and down even for a winger on his day as he was at times in qualifying he is one of the best around.

There is no rush, and happy to take another look at them in the friendly.  But not sure we should discount the altitude factor and their W0D3L5 record outside Quito just on the basis that we think that they have a decent winger?  I'm sure we can pick out a few French and Swiss stars who are a bit tasty after all.

[horseplayer]

I am not

But i saw the game versus a pretty much full strength Dutch side (in Holland) with Ecuador resting more players than Holland btw and they were excellent.

They obviously have more than just one "decent" winger but he will be the key as to whether they go through or not imo.

It is only fifteen years or so ago they were considered the Luxembourg of South America improving all the time and now got tournament experience.

[arbboy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/27677252

Not sure if this was already built into the price or if its breaking news on the NZ rugby bet?

[AlunB]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/27677252

Not sure if this was already built into the price or if its breaking news on the NZ rugby bet?

Was mentioned earlier in Fred. Keiran Reed being out for the ABs is a bigger blow.

[DungBeetle]

I am not

But i saw the game versus a pretty much full strength Dutch side (in Holland) with Ecuador resting more players than Holland btw and they were excellent.

They obviously have more than just one "decent" winger but he will be the key as to whether they go through or not imo.

It is only fifteen years or so ago they were considered the Luxembourg of South America improving all the time and now got tournament experience.

Luxembourg is too strong - they were competing on equal terms with many teams in the Copa American from 1990 onwards.  But your point about their improved World Cup showing is exactly the point why we should oppose them imo.

Their rapid improvement in qualifying happened when the Conmebol changed the qualifying format in the 90s into a big league with numerous home and away games.  When they couldn't rely on altitude advantage they really struggled to qualify.  Before that (from memory) they got lumbered with 3 team groups with a big gun, and another south american team.  Playing 8 home games under the updated format has exaggerated their home advantage and made them look better than they really are.  All in my opinion of course, but it seems a logical line of thought.

Lets see how they look this week.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/series-correct-score

Think we should be having a pony on spurs 4-0 at 22/1 at Ladbrokes.  Hard to understand where this price is coming from tbh.  The teams are very equally balanced the Spurs are 4 points favs for game one (6/10 as a fraction for win outright with no hcap on money line) which pretty much makes them a slightly superior team on a neutral ground.  Therefore to win 4-0 the calculation is pretty simple.  1.6 x 1.6 x 2.6 x 2.6 = 17.0 or 16/1.  This also assumes every game is independent and priced the same which is probably not the case of the spurs are 3-0 up they will probably be shorter than 8/5 for game 4 and hence shorter than 16/1 overall to win 4-0.

Although we don't need any more cash on the Spurs outright for the title its hard to see how they are 10/11 given they are priced as slightly better team on a neutral court for game 1 and they play 4 out of the 7 possible games at home.  For anyone who doesn't have an interest i couldn't put you off taking the 10/11 the spurs for the title.

[TightEnd]

San Antonio Spurs to win 4-0
22-1 Ladbrokes
2013/14 NBA Finals - Series Betting
Singles - Series correct score
1 line @ £25.00 per line
Total Stake £25.00
Potential Return £575.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000616

[DungBeetle]

Another thought.

Brazil love the first round of the world cup and always start fast.  Since 1982, their first round record is W21, , L1

They have secured maxium first round points in 5 of the last 8 world cups.

Given that they are home, and to my mind have one of the weakest groups with Mexico and Cameroon shadows of their strong teams of the past, I was expecting this to be odds on.

I think 6/5 is available at a few places for Brazil max points.  Thoughts? 

[redarmi]

This is actually not bad value.  It pays more than the acca at best prices for their games and they are going to want to win the group to hopefully play the Dutch or Chile rather than Spain and, of course, please the home fans etc.  I don't really like Brazil as a team but this is definitely not bad.

[McGlashan]

Germany have a home friendly international against Armenia on Friday and there's a big difference in opinion regarding the both teams to score market http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/germany-v-armenia/both-teams-to-score There is a generous arb although it's a very illiquid market that will quickly level out.

More than 2-1 on btts=yes looks generous. Armenia are a technically skillful side that play a deep counter attacking 4-5-1 system. They often found the net with ease against more established European nations during WC qualifying which included an end to end 2-2 draw in Italy.

The bookies set a high price on over 2.5 goals in their last 2 international friendlies, a 4-3 win against UAE and a 3-1 loss to Algeria. With Germany being -2.75 on the Asian Handicap the goal line is set at 3.5 and I would rather be on the over side of that.

Rec we get on £30 on btts @4-1 and £10 on btts+match result Germany @6.5.  

[TightEnd]

Germany have a home friendly international against Armenia on Friday and there's a big difference in opinion regarding the both teams to score market http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/germany-v-armenia/both-teams-to-score There is a generous arb although it's a very illiquid market that will quickly level out.

More than 2-1 on btts=yes looks generous. Armenia are a technically skillful side that play a deep counter attacking 4-5-1 system. They often found the net with ease against more established European nations during WC qualifying which included an end to end 2-2 draw in Italy.

The bookies set a high price on over 2.5 goals in their last 2 international friendlies, a 4-3 win against UAE and a 3-1 loss to Algeria. With Germany being -2.75 on the Asian Handicap the goal line is set at 3.5 and I would rather be on the over side of that.

Rec we get on £30 on btts @4-1 and £10 on btts+match result Germany @6.5.   

Hi

been offline a couple of hours

best are 100-30 BTTS and 4-1 BTTS/Germany, both betfair sportsbook

others have got there a long way before i did

i'd normally ask if you wanted me still to proceed but these prices are way out of line with the rest

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/germany-v-armenia/both-teams-to-score 100-30 is more than a point over next best

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/germany-v-armenia/match-result-and-both-teams-to-score 4-1 is getting on for double next best

so executive decision to proceed


Germany v Armenia

    10/3
    £129.00
    Yes
    Both Teams to Score

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000031



Germany v Armenia

    4/1
    £50.00
    Germany
    Match Odds and Both Teams to Score

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000032


i can put them down to me if you are unhappy with that

[TightEnd]

Another thought.

Brazil love the first round of the world cup and always start fast.  Since 1982, their first round record is W21, , L1

They have secured maxium first round points in 5 of the last 8 world cups.

Given that they are home, and to my mind have one of the weakest groups with Mexico and Cameroon shadows of their strong teams of the past, I was expecting this to be odds on.

I think 6/5 is available at a few places for Brazil max points.  Thoughts? 

i couldn't get 6/5, stan j is no go, betway is not funded. possibly missed it elsewhere earlier on

got 11/10.

above evens seems ok to me


    Win
    Single:
    9
    1 line at £30.00 per line
    Total stake for this bet: £30.00
    Potential Return: £63.00
    No: O/0849138/0000014

    Total stake:£30.00

[BigAdz]

Well Adaaj just won, but my screen froze just as he took it up, so no idea how ell he won.



Edit; Into generally for the Cov, so must have been ok at worst.

[horseplayer]

Well Adaaj just won, but my screen froze just as he took it up, so no idea how ell he won.



Edit; Into generally for the Cov, so must have been ok at worst.

Won pretty much on bridle

Second fav looks a possible 5 furlong animal to me but also ran well and the third Natural Order got a very tender ride for 3rd and was only a few lengths behind after being free early.