Tips for Tikay

[McGlashan]

Germany have a home friendly international against Armenia on Friday and there's a big difference in opinion regarding the both teams to score market http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/germany-v-armenia/both-teams-to-score There is a generous arb although it's a very illiquid market that will quickly level out.

More than 2-1 on btts=yes looks generous. Armenia are a technically skillful side that play a deep counter attacking 4-5-1 system. They often found the net with ease against more established European nations during WC qualifying which included an end to end 2-2 draw in Italy.

The bookies set a high price on over 2.5 goals in their last 2 international friendlies, a 4-3 win against UAE and a 3-1 loss to Algeria. With Germany being -2.75 on the Asian Handicap the goal line is set at 3.5 and I would rather be on the over side of that.

Rec we get on £30 on btts @4-1 and £10 on btts+match result Germany @6.5.   

Hi

been offline a couple of hours

best are 100-30 BTTS and 4-1 BTTS/Germany, both betfair sportsbook

others have got there a long way before i did

i'd normally ask if you wanted me still to proceed but these prices are way out of line with the rest

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/germany-v-armenia/both-teams-to-score 100-30 is more than a point over next best

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/germany-v-armenia/match-result-and-both-teams-to-score 4-1 is getting on for double next best

so executive decision to proceed


Germany v Armenia

    10/3
    £129.00
    Yes
    Both Teams to Score

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000031



Germany v Armenia

    4/1
    £50.00
    Germany
    Match Odds and Both Teams to Score

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000032


i can put them down to me if you are unhappy with that

10/3 is more than okay, I took some 3.3 before Betfair Sportsbook entered the equation. It's priced up like a European powerhouse vs a minnow of world football.

[AlunB]

Entire market on that match is now suspended. The power of Fred...

[Karabiner]

Has gramps been abducted by that alien-looking baseball mascot?

[BigAdz]

Well Adaaj just won, but my screen froze just as he took it up, so no idea how ell he won.



Edit; Into generally for the Cov, so must have been ok at worst.

Won pretty much on bridle

Second fav looks a possible 5 furlong animal to me but also ran well and the third Natural Order got a very tender ride for 3rd and was only a few lengths behind after being free early.

Thanks John, just seen it.

Did it well enough. Never needed a slap.

In good order for the main event.

[TightEnd]

Neymar has just scored this beauty for Brazil. http://vine.co/v/MpFbjQMgUpd

Panama the opponents, but still

[TightEnd]

anyone know this firm and their legitimacy?

http://federbet.com/media/Federbet_report_v3.pdf

do the charts show betting volumes do you think?

what do you think "Hand" means in the context of 1.Hand and over (home win, overs and ?)

thanks

[horseplayer]

Federbet have been going since about 2010

Think they are legit, the Conf North games mentioned i recall some of those being discussed at the time or shortly afterwards

Edit more here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FederBet

[horseplayer]

bet suggestion

£25 both teams to score at 11/10 bfair sportsbook

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/ecuador-v-england/both-teams-to-score

This according to a few usually reliable sources will be the england starting line up tommorow night

Foster
Milner, Jones, Smalling, Shaw
Lampard, Wilshere
Ox-Chamberlain, Barkley, Rooney
Lambert

A midfielder at right back, and a left back with probably no protection add to my confidence.

11/10 will probably be a bit of value come kick off anyway

[redarmi]

anyone know this firm and their legitimacy?

http://federbet.com/media/Federbet_report_v3.pdf

do the charts show betting volumes do you think?

what do you think "Hand" means in the context of 1.Hand and over (home win, overs and ?)

thanks

Hand almost certainly means handicap.  All seems a bit random to me....if there were only 3 fixed matches in China last year I would be amazed.  Some justification for the allegations would be good too.

[Studge15]

for Mark Porter

Scott Seiver: I Will be Playing in the ONE DROP! http://dlvr.it/5sRVXl

not quoted anywhere http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/all-poker/wsop-the-big-one-for-one-drop/winner

if he is priced up above 56-1 can you let me know please?

Yes, am keeping an eye on the market.

There are 4 or 5 that look to have a decent chance of playing at 60-80/1. Waiting on the next announcement of names before doing anything.

Coral have taken down their market on lambert goals. I didn't need a reason to route for him to do well but I did like that bet.

Martin Jacobson has said he's playing and is 100/1.

[Doobs]

BF Sportsbook currently offering an arb with the exchange on Belgium.  Back them each way at 22/1 (same as the exchange) and get them at 11/1 to reach the final (9/1 on the exchange).  Given I was looking to back them anyway, it is probably worth a few of Tikay's pounds?

Maybe 20 e/w is good? assuming you didn't tip up Algeria because you knew Belgium were carrying horrid injuries.

This got missed the other night. They are now 21/1 on the exchange and 22/1 on the Sportsbook.

In addition

GRAB £/€15 WORTH OF FREE BETS ON BRAZIL
Place a minimum £/€20 Sportsbook single bet on the World Cup Outright market.
You will receive a free £/€5 bet on each of Brazil's Group Stage matches.
Free Bet tokens valid for First Goalscorer and Anytime Correct Score markets only.

So put £20 each way on Belgium with the Sportsbook, beat their own exchange and get free bets. 

We also need to keep an eye on the weather and Turftrax tomorrow.  Australia seems to be heading towards a backable price in the Derby at 2.62.  It should be raining about now, and there is possible heavy rain in the next few hours.  Seems likely  to be some opportunities tomorrow. 

For those that can do Skuy.  They are non runner no bet and best odds guaranteed on The Derby.  Kingston Hill is 8/1 there and 8.8/9 on the exchange, so you get guaranteed exchange price now plus the option of a bigger price if it drifts.  On an uncertain weather forecast and 3 days out that best odds guarantee is worth quite a bit more than usual.

[Doobs]

Not much more exciting than watching concrete set, but...

http://www.epsomweather.co.uk

2.4mm since midnight, so ground still good right now?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £236.67

Outstanding Bets £2997.70

Free bets to use £25 Betfred

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=25

A profit of £60 yesterday with Sri Lanka beating England by six wickets at Edgbaston to secure a 3-2 ODI series win, 6/4 to win the series pre-event.

Not a game without its controversies, with Senanayake Mankad-ing Buttler

Click to see full-size image.

It was a topsy turvy series, but we were done a huge favour when the teams to turned up to Birmingham to find a slow pitch, occasionally low which was almost home from home for the Sri Lankans and made no sense for England. You can't imagine them turning up to Pallekele this winter and finding a lethal damp green top, so why a pitch that allows 4 Sri Lankan spinners to twirl away?



Anyway, I digress

longer term positions

- Derbyshire need just over 300 to beat Hampshire today, but the weather is likely to get in the way

- Adaay won at Yarmouth and is into 7/1 second favourite for the Coventry. In the Hamdan Al Maktoum colours, i think this pic is at Newbury last time

Click to see full-size image.

- Neymar warmed up to score us 6 goals in the world cup, in style

Click to see full-size image.

- Gulbis won his quarter in the French and today Ferrer meets Nadal, and Murray plays Monfils

Click to see full-size image.

- in baseball, the Royals won 8-7, the Orioles won 8-3 and the Yankees lost 5-2 for a rare full house of favourable MLB results overnight

- in general, we're rain dancing ahead of Epsom this Saturday (more chance of Australia getting turned over, i think?), except for this fella, True Story, completing his prep yesterday



- in basketball, excitement is rising throughout Stoke on Trent as Game 1 of Heat v Spurs is tomorrow night

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

bet suggestion

£25 both teams to score at 11/10 bfair sportsbook

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/ecuador-v-england/both-teams-to-score

This according to a few usually reliable sources will be the england starting line up tommorow night

Foster
Milner, Jones, Smalling, Shaw
Lampard, Wilshere
Ox-Chamberlain, Barkley, Rooney
Lambert

A midfielder at right back, and a left back with probably no protection add to my confidence.

11/10 will probably be a bit of value come kick off anyway

i can still just about get odds against, as quite an underdog to "No"

Yes21/20England v Ecuador - 04/06/2014
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£41.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £41.00

[TightEnd]

for Mark Porter

Scott Seiver: I Will be Playing in the ONE DROP! http://dlvr.it/5sRVXl

not quoted anywhere http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/all-poker/wsop-the-big-one-for-one-drop/winner

if he is priced up above 56-1 can you let me know please?

Yes, am keeping an eye on the market.

There are 4 or 5 that look to have a decent chance of playing at 60-80/1. Waiting on the next announcement of names before doing anything.

Coral have taken down their market on lambert goals. I didn't need a reason to route for him to do well but I did like that bet.

Martin Jacobson has said he's playing and is 100/1.

yes/no Mr Porter?