Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

Morning Mr T2.

Neither of our Eastbourne picks are in action today, however over in Hertogensboch there is a match that I think is wrongly priced.

Jurgen Melzer is favourite over Falla and I think it should be the other way round. Melzer has not played on grass this season and Falla got to last weeks final, losing to Federer 7-6 7-6.That, and his semi final win over Kohlschreiber, is solid form and as long as tiredness is not a problem I think he is a good bet today.

Suggest £20 Alejandro Falla @ 5/4 with Ladbrokes, Paddy, Betfred

[TightEnd]

I don't think backing the French horse (Anodin) each way at 12/1 in the first can ever be terrible.  Backing overseas runners blind is never going to be a bad strategy and is such a good each way race.  If you can get bet365 4/1+ offer all the better.  Suggest 20 each way on that too.

I haven't time to look at Trigg's but I did mention Toormore the other day.  Unfortunately he hasn't said that is worth money.  You'd have to back it on the nose in that race.

ok i did have toormore in mind from your comments earlier in the week

i will do the french thing now and if you want toormore on let me know

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T2.

Neither of our Eastbourne picks are in action today, however over in Hertogensboch there is a match that I think is wrongly priced.

Jurgen Melzer is favourite over Falla and I think it should be the other way round. Melzer has not played on grass this season and Falla got to last weeks final, losing to Federer 7-6 7-6.That, and his semi final win over Kohlschreiber, is solid form and as long as tiredness is not a problem I think he is a good bet today.

Suggest £20 Alejandro Falla @ 5/4 with Ladbrokes, Paddy, Betfred

this is now in play

Melzer broke Falla first game and Falla is 2/1 "in running"

thoughts hector?

[TightEnd]

I don't think backing the French horse (Anodin) each way at 12/1 in the first can ever be terrible.  Backing overseas runners blind is never going to be a bad strategy and is such a good each way race.  If you can get bet365 4/1+ offer all the better.  Suggest 20 each way on that too.

I haven't time to look at Trigg's but I did mention Toormore the other day.  Unfortunately he hasn't said that is worth money.  You'd have to back it on the nose in that race.

Anodin

B365 prepared to offer £3.25 e/w

 14:30 ANODIN (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 12/1 Stake: 40.00 Possible Return:  328.00

£20 e/w 1/5 1,2,3 BV

[Chompy]

We have £200 on Hughesy at 7-2.

He can be laid at 4.2, which isn't much shorter.

We should really be keeping the bet in this spot but £200 is quite a chunk for TfT, so feel free to lay back a hundo at 4.2.

Unless we want to let it ride until after the first, hope that Toronado justifies favouritism, and then lay back at shorter.

[TightEnd]

We have £200 on Hughesy at 7-2.

He can be laid at 4.2, which isn't much shorter.

We should really be keeping the bet in this spot but £200 is quite a chunk for TfT, so feel free to lay back a hundo at 4.2.

Unless we want to let it ride until after the first, hope that Toronado justifies favouritism, and then lay back at shorter.

your call. if "we really should be keeping it" then i have no problems with that if you don't. and the boss is asleep.

[Chompy]

Oi oi! Let it ride until after Torondao then.

[TightEnd]

i sent rick a note asking if we could use any of these on here

first time in the last 5 years ill be able to enjoy this so looking to get stuck in. Heres my thoughts on day 1


2.30 Hughes and Hannon always bullish about this horse so nothing new there, i think it will probably win as the opposition looks very weak

3.05  the last 9 winners of the coventry have been unbeaten going into it. Thats a very strong stat. It means to me that horses good enough to win the race will have been good enough to win on debut NO excuses of ground tactics etc. The race the wow signal won at ayr is giving me a headache.
one way of looking at it is that TWS won by 9l on debut with the 2nd and 3rd both bolting up since. Now the rep of jungle cat said that the ground was horrid that day at ayr and many of the other jocks said it was like glue. Jungle cat has since come out and looked impressive winning a goodwood maiden. TWS is out of starspangled banner though who loved rattling ground. And the Quinn yard think this is the real deal. Im happy however to take jungle cat at around 20s rather than the on TWS.

Bossy guest of mick channons also created a good visual impression on me winning a york maiden first time out and getting there rather cosily in the end and connections stating this race as the aim after the race. The 2nd has since won and at 28s im adding this to my team for the race.

However the best impression any of these have given me is the haggas trained ADAAY. Still looking green when winning first at newbury before easily winning a novice event at yarmouth giving the impression there is more to come.

3.45 the kings stand is a waiting game for me until weve established how quick the ground is out there. If its good to firm ground you would be a fool to take on sole power in my opinion, and if its on the soft side of good you would be a fool to bet him. He wants it Rattling like concrete. If it does come up on the soft side of good then id be very much in the hot streak/jack dexter e/w camp here.

4.25 the st james palace stakes is not a race ill be getting too involved in but i do think that Toormore could be overpriced at double figures
. really looking forward to the race though

5.00 im interested in brockwell and domination here. But another i wanna wait to see what the ground is doing

left the windsor stakes out on purpose.  

I think the royal ascot meeting more than any other is tarnished with betting snobbery and maybe for a good reason. The Best prospects do get sent to the more fashionable yards and the more fashionable yards do have the best facilities etc, but some of the price discrepancies ive seen particularly in the coventry and the windsor castle are taking it a bit too far for me.

the three i like at juicy prices are these.

Majestic hero 28/1   ron harris's charge won on soft ground at chepstow which is a course thats known for being really bottomless and todays conditions are going to be worlds apart however connections do think he will improve for better ground and ron harris knows his onions when it comes to sprinters. He finished 6l 4th to kool company on debut and is worth a dabble.


Roudee at 25/1   Beat midterm break (14/1 in this race) on debut at Ripon and the ran a good 2nd in a conditions race from a wide draw at chester before seemingly not getting home in soft ground in a listed race at sandown behind cock of the north and Team wiggy, who both would have loved the conditions that day. Back to a sounder surface i can see Roudee outrunning his price today with a first time hood maybe sharpening him up.

Commander patten 40/1   2 good runs in finishing 2nd at both starts so far and has shaped to me like 5f could well be his trip. At 40/1 im willing to take a chance

if he agrees,thought they were good write ups from someone we've had success with at good prices. great judge i think (there, thats the smoke blown up his....)

can't really back them for TfT until have the green light though

others agree?

not sure on what others think, but i don't want to  unless he says its ok

we are ok to use these, if we wish

2.30 junglecat
2.30 bossy guest

4.20 toormore

windsor castle

majestic hero
roudee
commander pattern

are i think the ones not covered elsewhere


need more thoughts on the 5pm later in the day if anything is worth looking at

[TightEnd]

BetVictor

15:05 JUNGLE CAT (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 18/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  245.00 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

17:35 MAJESTIC HERO (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 28/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  370.00
17:35 ROUDEE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 28/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  370.00
17:35 COMMANDER PATTEN (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 33/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  432.50

e/w 1/4 1,2,3

Betfred

Royal Ascot 15:05
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3
Bossy Guest 22/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 295.00

i couldn't get anything on with b365 with any for the c4 offer, or the 25/1 with stan james.

[peejaytwo]

I don't think backing the French horse (Anodin) each way at 12/1 in the first can ever be terrible.  Backing overseas runners blind is never going to be a bad strategy and is such a good each way race.  If you can get bet365 4/1+ offer all the better.  Suggest 20 each way on that too.

I haven't time to look at Trigg's but I did mention Toormore the other day.  Unfortunately he hasn't said that is worth money.  You'd have to back it on the nose in that race.

Anodin

B365 prepared to offer £3.25 e/w

 14:30 ANODIN (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 12/1 Stake: 40.00 Possible Return:  328.00

£20 e/w 1/5 1,2,3 BV

Tighty, I dunno if you had access to 12/1 at 1/4 odds but victors only 1/5

[TightEnd]

I don't think backing the French horse (Anodin) each way at 12/1 in the first can ever be terrible.  Backing overseas runners blind is never going to be a bad strategy and is such a good each way race.  If you can get bet365 4/1+ offer all the better.  Suggest 20 each way on that too.

I haven't time to look at Trigg's but I did mention Toormore the other day.  Unfortunately he hasn't said that is worth money.  You'd have to back it on the nose in that race.

Anodin

B365 prepared to offer £3.25 e/w

 14:30 ANODIN (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 12/1 Stake: 40.00 Possible Return:  328.00

£20 e/w 1/5 1,2,3 BV

Tighty, I dunno if you had access to 12/1 at 1/4 odds but victors only 1/5

thanks

sportingbet then e/w 1/4 1,2,3,

bvictor in the misclick file

[TightEnd]

that leaves toormore, or not

win only

i can get 10/1, will try b365 first then ladbrokes

[TightEnd]

that leaves toormore, or not

win only

i can get 10/1, will try b365 first then ladbrokes

 16:25 TOORMORE (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 10/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  220.00 BV

b365 only prepared to lay £2, we might have been tightened another notch with them, can't get much on at all today there

[Marky147]

Adz can't post anything until he is allowed out of his cell...

[TightEnd]

the team

betvictor   jun-2014   horses   Coventry stakes   Adaay   10/1   30 ew
paddy power 17-Jun   horses   2.30 Royal Ascot   Verrazano   4/1   25.12 ew
betvictor   17-Jun   horses   3.05 royal ascot   Kool Kompany   10/1   50 ew
williamhill   17-Jun   horses   2.30 royal ascot   toronado   ev   25
williamhill   17-Jun   horses   4.25 royal ascot   kingman   ev   25
sportingbet   17-Jun   horses   2.30 royal ascot   anodin   12/1   40 ew
betvictor   17-Jun   horses   3.05 Royal Ascot   Jungle Cat   18/1   20 ew
betvictor   17-Jun   horses   5.35 Royal Ascot   Majestic Hero   28/1   20 ew
betvictor   17-Jun   horses   5.35 Royal Ascot   Roudee   28/1   20 ew
betvictor   17-Jun   horses   5.35 Royal Ascot   Commander Pattern   33/1   20 ew
betfred   17-Jun   horses   3.05 Royal Ascot   Bossy Guest   22/1   20 ew
betvictor   17-Jun   horses   4.25 royal ascot   toormore   10/1   20

i've just read neil's stuff, which i won't mention. the ew on the coventry is down to me if any of the tipsters wanted win only. seems to be a mental block on my behalf