Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

This is no doubt bollocks but anyway

http://nationalreport.net/netherlands-continue-world-cup-despite-doping-scandal/

sure i read it's a hoax report

[Peter-27]

i can't use skybet for bets. best i can get is 8-10/1 on an individual driver, or 8/1 redbull so leaving that

Good job! Mercedes cars topped the session.

[TightEnd]

Western Hymn is a non at Ascot, which pretty much ends Hughes's chances imo.

Take down the 5.2 and stick the lay back up at 6. Last bet I promise.

done

[Tonji]

The contrasting moods of Andrea Pirlo, il Maestro

[horseplayer]

http://www.sportdw.com/2014/06/2014-wimbledon-preview.html

A really good stats based preview means little to me tbh but sure it may to a tennis fan/bettor

[Doobs]

Austrian GP: Pre-Practice Tips

Bet365
Number Of Finishers: Over 18 @ 2/1 => Easy track, not expecting any driver errors. Not too tough on the cars either. While this outcome may only be a possibility rather than a probability, a price of 2/1 is decent value!

Bet Victor
Group C (MAL/SUT/GUT/BIA): Pastor Maldonado @ 23/20 => Can't really understand a price higher than evens, as the Lotus should quite easily be the quicker car. Maybe they are taking into consideration Pastor's erratic driving style, but it's not a challenging circuit - he should reach the end of the race.

William Hill
Group 4 (VER/KVY/GRO/MAL): Daniil Kvyat @ 13/8 => Toro Rosso should be quicker than Lotus around Austria. This bet is 13/8 on Kvyat beating Vergne really.

Would also suggest a small bet on either Red Bull driver to top the first practice session. Mercedes (and Ferrari) will be testing a new titanium skid block in order to enhance the spectacle and create sparks on Friday. Could well slow them down and Red Bull could top the timesheets as a result. Unlikely but Vettel & Ricciardo are both 16/1 with Sky Bet - worth a small bet at that price in my opinion. I put 25p on each out of my £10 allowance.

 Austrian Grand Prix Over 18 (Number of Classified Drivers - Race) Odds: 9/4 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  48.75  victor

 Austrian Grand Prix Pastor Maldonado (Group C - Race) Odds: 23/20 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  32.25 victor

20 Jun 2014 - Austrian F1 Grand Prix - Group Betting - Race - Group 4

Daniil Kvyat @ 13/8

Stake : £15.00
Estimated Returns : £
39.30
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000998/

hills


i can't use skybet for bets. best i can get is 8-10/1 on an individual driver, or 8/1 redbull so leaving that

This Maldanado bet looks like another one of those combned bets. 

Maldanado is 4/6 not to finish and 11/10 to finish, so I am guessing true odds is about 4/5.  So he is 55% to finish.  About 10% of the time he is going to limp to the finish in the Lotus, or he hasn't had to stop for a major repair (this is Maldanado!)?  I don't know, but it feels pretty generous, the car still isn't perfect and neither is he.  So we get down to 50% or evens he finishes in a car that isn't limping, or hasn't had to be significantly.  23/20 is about 46.5%. 

So even if we are generous to our old friend Pastor, we are betting that 93% of the time when the Saubers and Maldanado finish in cars that are somewhere near their best, Maldanado beats BOTH Saubers.  Now we are saying that the Lotus should quite easily be the quicker car.  In Canado Sutil beat Maldanado in qualifying.  I'd say in qualifying there really hasn't been much between the cars.  Maybe the Lotus is a bit quicker, but it isn't a big edge like Mercedes have vs the field.  If you just dismissing a bunch of things just because they are unlikely you are making a mistake.  I wouldn't want to back him to beat both at 1/14 and think I have an edge.

Some people won't bet Liverpool at 2/5, but will if they put Liverpool to win and Saurez to score and make it 5/6.  They won't back Spain to win at 4/6, but think 15/8 Spain to win both halves must be value and so on.   These combined bets aren't always terrible value, Arbboy has pulled apart a couple recently where bookies have got them wrong.  The 4-1 scoreline in Spurs vs Heat was one such example.  But most of the time they are just shafting us and increasing their margin.  If I was to back something like this I'd definitely want to pull it apart and see where our edge was before backing it. 

If I thought Maldanado was a good bet to finish because the car is more reliable now or people were assuming he is more of a nutter than he is, I'd just back him to finish.  I wouldn't be rushing to take the 4/6 on offer now, I'd probably wait and hope for better or just ask for 5/6 or better on Betfair. 
 

[Tonji]

http://www.sportdw.com/2014/06/2014-wimbledon-preview.html

A really good stats based preview means little to me tbh but sure it may to a tennis fan/bettor

Worth following on twitter @sportdw

Seems to have the inside track on younger tennis players & smaller tennis tournaments. Was involved in Cycling betting last year. Villa fan.

[Doobs]

This is going to be very dull, but

Hils are 15/8 both Adelaide in the 15.45 and Bold Sniper in the 15.05.  Both are less than 2/1 on Betfair.  It makes them very good bets on Hills mobile for £25, even if they are very dull.

Sorry, just lacking inspiration today.  For those with long memeories, our 33/1 shot for the Guineas goes in the Coronation stakes today.  Would be good to see how far out I was, but I prefer to give Rizeena another chance.  Seems to be 15/2 in lots of places including at Betfair.  She ran down the field in the 1000 Guineas, but before that she was really solid, and there is talk that she wasn't ready.  Not sure that she can really be that far away from those above her in the betting.  Maybe we should gamble a little and put that on with Hills Mobile too.  Stick to win only, the place terms aren't all that great.

Rosalind looks interesting in that race too. 20/1 each way looks worth a punt.  She has come a long way to make up the numbers. 

[JaffaCake]

Thanks for the gratz Freddies x

[TightEnd]

bold sniper 15/8
adelaide 15/8
rizeena 15/2

wh mobile £25 win money back as free bet if 2nd


Rosalind 20/1
16:25 Royal Ascot
Singles - Race Winner - Each Way
2 lines @ £15.00 per line
Total Stake £30.00
Potential Return £405.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000628
ladbrokes

[Doobs]

Promise I won't do anymore, but think Hartnell is a bet in the 17.00.

It won an easy race over 10 furlongs at two, so looks the most likely stayer.  The trainer has a good record in the race and you can back it at 4/1 e/w quarter 3 places ( a smidgen lower on Betfair).  Think this must be a bet too.

Suggest 20 e/w with betevery day if we can.  Is Vic there?, goat, baldfred and Paddies all offering the same.   

[Peter-27]

Austrian GP: Pre-Practice Tips

Bet365
Number Of Finishers: Over 18 @ 2/1 => Easy track, not expecting any driver errors. Not too tough on the cars either. While this outcome may only be a possibility rather than a probability, a price of 2/1 is decent value!

Bet Victor
Group C (MAL/SUT/GUT/BIA): Pastor Maldonado @ 23/20 => Can't really understand a price higher than evens, as the Lotus should quite easily be the quicker car. Maybe they are taking into consideration Pastor's erratic driving style, but it's not a challenging circuit - he should reach the end of the race.

William Hill
Group 4 (VER/KVY/GRO/MAL): Daniil Kvyat @ 13/8 => Toro Rosso should be quicker than Lotus around Austria. This bet is 13/8 on Kvyat beating Vergne really.

Would also suggest a small bet on either Red Bull driver to top the first practice session. Mercedes (and Ferrari) will be testing a new titanium skid block in order to enhance the spectacle and create sparks on Friday. Could well slow them down and Red Bull could top the timesheets as a result. Unlikely but Vettel & Ricciardo are both 16/1 with Sky Bet - worth a small bet at that price in my opinion. I put 25p on each out of my £10 allowance.

 Austrian Grand Prix Over 18 (Number of Classified Drivers - Race) Odds: 9/4 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  48.75  victor

 Austrian Grand Prix Pastor Maldonado (Group C - Race) Odds: 23/20 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  32.25 victor

20 Jun 2014 - Austrian F1 Grand Prix - Group Betting - Race - Group 4

Daniil Kvyat @ 13/8

Stake : £15.00
Estimated Returns : £
39.30
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000998/

hills


i can't use skybet for bets. best i can get is 8-10/1 on an individual driver, or 8/1 redbull so leaving that

This Maldanado bet looks like another one of those combned bets. 

Maldanado is 4/6 not to finish and 11/10 to finish, so I am guessing true odds is about 4/5.  So he is 55% to finish.  About 10% of the time he is going to limp to the finish in the Lotus, or he hasn't had to stop for a major repair (this is Maldanado!)?  I don't know, but it feels pretty generous, the car still isn't perfect and neither is he.  So we get down to 50% or evens he finishes in a car that isn't limping, or hasn't had to be significantly.  23/20 is about 46.5%. 

So even if we are generous to our old friend Pastor, we are betting that 93% of the time when the Saubers and Maldanado finish in cars that are somewhere near their best, Maldanado beats BOTH Saubers.  Now we are saying that the Lotus should quite easily be the quicker car.  In Canado Sutil beat Maldanado in qualifying.  I'd say in qualifying there really hasn't been much between the cars.  Maybe the Lotus is a bit quicker, but it isn't a big edge like Mercedes have vs the field.  If you just dismissing a bunch of things just because they are unlikely you are making a mistake.  I wouldn't want to back him to beat both at 1/14 and think I have an edge.

Some people won't bet Liverpool at 2/5, but will if they put Liverpool to win and Saurez to score and make it 5/6.  They won't back Spain to win at 4/6, but think 15/8 Spain to win both halves must be value and so on.   These combined bets aren't always terrible value, Arbboy has pulled apart a couple recently where bookies have got them wrong.  The 4-1 scoreline in Spurs vs Heat was one such example.  But most of the time they are just shafting us and increasing their margin.  If I was to back something like this I'd definitely want to pull it apart and see where our edge was before backing it. 

If I thought Maldanado was a good bet to finish because the car is more reliable now or people were assuming he is more of a nutter than he is, I'd just back him to finish.  I wouldn't be rushing to take the 4/6 on offer now, I'd probably wait and hope for better or just ask for 5/6 or better on Betfair. 
 

I see what you're saying - and I can't argue with your logic.

What I would say though is that I would rate Maldonado at around 70% to finish the race in Austria, because of the nature of the track. Maldonado's big problem is hitting stuff, and there is very little to hit on this circuit. Historically the number of finishers at this circuit is usually high - it is an easy track to race on, and it is not too hard on the cars either.

To be honest, I'm not considering the finishing higher than Sauber/s & Bianchi part of this bet. Lotus should be comfortably clear of those cars here over a race distance (maybe not over qualifying), and the team are suggesting the same - they think they will score points this weekend. So it's a no brainer for me, this bet is 23/20 on Maldonado finishing.

[TightEnd]

Promise I won't do anymore, but think Hartnell is a bet in the 17.00.

It won an easy race over 10 furlongs at two, so looks the most likely stayer.  The trainer has a good orecord in the race and you can back it at 4/1 e/w quarter 3 places ( a smidgen lower on Betfair).  Think this must be a bet too.

Suggest 20 e/w with betevery day if we can.  Is Vic there?, goat, baldfred and Paddies all offering the same.   

thats on, betfred.

[horseplayer]

Re Rosalind

Are we betting her because she has travelled a long way?

She has all dirt/polytrack form which gives her about the chance of her price.

Her turf maiden she won would have been won by any of this field with a ten length start

I can understand the argument some european runners are underbet (germans) but there is nothing in the stats that suggest American horses are.

[Doobs]

Re Rosalind

Are we betting her because she has travelled a long way?

She has all dirt/polytrack form which gives her about the chance of her price.

Her turf maiden she won would have been won by any of this field with a ten length start

I can understand the argument some european runners are underbet (germans) but there is nothing in the stats that suggest American horses are.

Don't think we have backed it, just said it was interesting.  I could probably lay the win part back and beat the price on the place, so it isn't ever going to be that bad?