Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Stage 8: Tour de Suisse
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 04:35:20 AM »

Hello Tighty,

I'm sending this tip PM, because in the past, prices have tended to disappear once I've posted them to Fred. I don't think we have to worry about that any more, given my recent run of form ... but for vanity's sake here it is. Please feel free to post this up on the thread for discussion, as my short-lived auto-bet status should probably be revoked immediately.

Cheers, Jason


I'm getting a little annoyed with myself. I'm beginning to think that the bookies know more than I do. They ought to. They've definitely become a lot wiser at this cycling game over the past year. I've lost my edge. In fact, depending on the outcome, this could be my last tip for Fred (bar one I've set aside for the Tour de France):

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-suisse/tour-de-suisse-stage-8/winner

Today is the first mountain stage of the Tour de Suisse. It finishes with a climb up to Verbier, which means that (apart from a breakaway) the winner should be the rider with the best climbing legs. The bookies have the favourites going something like this:
Rui Costa              7/2      Decent chance, but waaaay too short.
Bauke Mollema           5/1      Good form, but unlikely to leave anyone in his wake. Prefer his chances tomorrow.
Mathias Frank      7/1      Could win this stage. Like.
Thibout Pinot      8/1      I'd be amazed!
Roman Kreuziger           10/1      Possibility, but bad TT belies indifferent form. Saving himself for Contador?
Warren Barguil           18/1      No.
Michael Albasini           22/1      Are you kidding me?
Phillip Deignan           22/1      Hmmm. Maybe. Maybe not. Chances. Possibility. Undecided.
Cadel Evans      33/1      Better chance than Albasini.
Tom Jelte Slagter   33/1      Really?
Peter Sagan      33/1      Seriously?

This stage will be a litmus test for where I'm at against the bookies. The fact is, I think they've gotten this one horribly wrong. It's almost as if they've gone for reputation over current ability and form. If we discount the possibility of a breakaway making it to the finish line, I make it that there are four better climbers in the field than any of the above (bearing in mind that the final 8+ km up to Verbier have a challenging average gradient of 8%). They are:

Janier Acevedo                 40/1      5th Stage 3: Tour of California; 16th in yesterday's TT (and he can't TT) after a blistering climb to the first time check; Colombian; 2:07 behind Tony Martin and needs time.
Johan Esteban Rubio Chavez      50/1      1st Stage 6: Tour of California (after a breakaway); Colombian; the next Nairo Quintana; not a great TT (saving himself?)
Lawson Craddock                 125/1      3rd Overall: Tour of California; 6th in yesterday's TT … and it's not his strong point; 1:42 behind the leader. Like his chances. Youngster wants to prove himself.
Christophe Riblon                 80/1      Proven climber; past TdF stage winner; no Betancur this year in Tdf (Proving himself?); Outside chance.

I suggest that Fred stakes £2.50 e/w on each of the above for a total outlay of £20. If we don't turn a profit, I think I'm done for the year. Obviously, I've backed all of them myself.

[TightEnd]

sportingbet


                Johan Esteban Chaves Rubio 50/1
                Each Way: 1/4 1 - 3
        Possible Payout 161.25 GBP
    2 bets @
    2.50 GBP

    Total Cost: 5.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 161.25 GBP


ladbrokes


Janier Acevedo
Stage 8: Delemont - Verbier
Singles - Stage Winner - Each Way
2 lines @ £2.50 per line
Total Stake £5.00
Potential Return £130.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000629
125/1
Lawson Craddock
Stage 8: Delemont - Verbier
Singles - Stage Winner - Each Way
2 lines @ £2.50 per line


betvictor

 Tour De Suisse Stage 8 Christophe Riblon (EW) (Tour De Suisse Stage 8 - Race) Odds: 66/1 Stake: 5.00 Possible Return:  211.25

all e/w 1/4 1,2,3

[tikay]

Stage 8: Tour de Suisse
« Sent to: TightEnd on: Today at 04:35:20 AM »

Hello Tighty,

I'm sending this tip PM, because in the past, prices have tended to disappear once I've posted them to Fred. I don't think we have to worry about that any more, given my recent run of form ... but for vanity's sake here it is. Please feel free to post this up on the thread for discussion, as my short-lived auto-bet status should probably be revoked immediately.

Cheers, Jason


I'm getting a little annoyed with myself. I'm beginning to think that the bookies know more than I do. They ought to. They've definitely become a lot wiser at this cycling game over the past year. I've lost my edge. In fact, depending on the outcome, this could be my last tip for Fred (bar one I've set aside for the Tour de France):

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-suisse/tour-de-suisse-stage-8/winner

Today is the first mountain stage of the Tour de Suisse. It finishes with a climb up to Verbier, which means that (apart from a breakaway) the winner should be the rider with the best climbing legs. The bookies have the favourites going something like this:
Rui Costa              7/2      Decent chance, but waaaay too short.
Bauke Mollema           5/1      Good form, but unlikely to leave anyone in his wake. Prefer his chances tomorrow.
Mathias Frank      7/1      Could win this stage. Like.
Thibout Pinot      8/1      I'd be amazed!
Roman Kreuziger           10/1      Possibility, but bad TT belies indifferent form. Saving himself for Contador?
Warren Barguil           18/1      No.
Michael Albasini           22/1      Are you kidding me?
Phillip Deignan           22/1      Hmmm. Maybe. Maybe not. Chances. Possibility. Undecided.
Cadel Evans      33/1      Better chance than Albasini.
Tom Jelte Slagter   33/1      Really?
Peter Sagan      33/1      Seriously?

This stage will be a litmus test for where I'm at against the bookies. The fact is, I think they've gotten this one horribly wrong. It's almost as if they've gone for reputation over current ability and form. If we discount the possibility of a breakaway making it to the finish line, I make it that there are four better climbers in the field than any of the above (bearing in mind that the final 8+ km up to Verbier have a challenging average gradient of 8%). They are:

Janier Acevedo                 40/1      5th Stage 3: Tour of California; 16th in yesterday's TT (and he can't TT) after a blistering climb to the first time check; Colombian; 2:07 behind Tony Martin and needs time.
Johan Esteban Rubio Chavez      50/1      1st Stage 6: Tour of California (after a breakaway); Colombian; the next Nairo Quintana; not a great TT (saving himself?)
Lawson Craddock                 125/1      3rd Overall: Tour of California; 6th in yesterday's TT … and it's not his strong point; 1:42 behind the leader. Like his chances. Youngster wants to prove himself.
Christophe Riblon                 80/1      Proven climber; past TdF stage winner; no Betancur this year in Tdf (Proving himself?); Outside chance.

I suggest that Fred stakes £2.50 e/w on each of the above for a total outlay of £20. If we don't turn a profit, I think I'm done for the year. Obviously, I've backed all of them myself.

That is amazing. We are blessed with some great regulars here, we really are.

[horseplayer]

great post

dont be to hard on yourself your average price must be around 20-1+ nothing unusually with having a 40 losing run at those prices...

keep posting

[TightEnd]

Argentina V Iran    17:00    
Nigeria V Bos-Herce   23:00    
Germany V Ghana   20:00

£25 betfair sportsbook free bet has to be used by midday tomorrow   

anything in these three games?

first goalscorer in the germany game?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup

[maldini32]

Argentina V Iran    17:00    
Nigeria V Bos-Herce   23:00    
Germany V Ghana   20:00

£25 betfair sportsbook free bet has to be used by midday tomorrow   

anything in these three games?

first goalscorer in the germany game?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup

I'd just stick it on France outright instead of trying to force a bet out of the 3 games. Unless of course someone has a strong opinion on something else.

[TightEnd]

France outright went on last night, £50 free bet at 12-1

[Tonji]

great post

dont be to hard on yourself your average price must be around 20-1+ nothing unusually with having a 40 losing run at those prices...

keep posting

Not looked at this stage, but as ever your logic & thoughts look spot on.

High variance cycling betting. I was reviewing the Giro results & nearly 50% of stage winners started in the 20-50/1 range.

btw your post reminded me Mathias Frank may be a option for IAM Cycling in the KOM?

[Doobs]

Trying to keep ahaead of Neil

I like the look of Pethers Moon in the 3.45 at Ascot.  He is very reliable and his opponents aren't.  Telescope has promised loads but seems to always get beaten.  I went down the list and I was unreliable, unreliable, unreliable.

He is 11/1 best with Hills.  Suggest we use a £25 free bet for this.  He is 11/1 and quarter first 3 in a few places too.   After the free bet, also suggest a nice £25 each way with b365, sporting, or hills etc.  The place bet looks very good to me.

You'd look at him in a normal group 2 and think he is likely to find one too good, but maybe not today.

Will try and post another one for the free bets later, but have to go out now.

[TightEnd]

Trying to keep ahaead of Neil

I like the look of Pethers Moon in the 3.45 at Ascot.  He is very reliable and his opponents aren't.  Telescope has promised loads but seems to always get beaten.  I went down the list and I was unreliable, unreliable, unreliable.

He is 11/1 best with Hills.  Suggest we use a £25 free bet for this.  He is 11/1 and quarter first 3 in a few places too.   After the free bet, also suggest a nice £25 each way with b365, sporting, or hills etc.  The place bet looks very good to me.

You'd look at him in a normal group 2 and think he is likely to find one too good, but maybe not today.

Will try and post another one for the free bets later, but have to go out now.

FREE BET

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Pether's Moon @ 11/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
275.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001004/F


21 Jun 2014 - 3:45 Royal Ascot - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Pether's Moon @ 11/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £50.00 (£25.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
393.75
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001005/F

[Peter-27]

Trying to keep ahaead of Neil

I like the look of Pethers Moon in the 3.45 at Ascot.  He is very reliable and his opponents aren't.  Telescope has promised loads but seems to always get beaten.  I went down the list and I was unreliable, unreliable, unreliable.

He is 11/1 best with Hills.  Suggest we use a £25 free bet for this.  He is 11/1 and quarter first 3 in a few places too.   After the free bet, also suggest a nice £25 each way with b365, sporting, or hills etc.  The place bet looks very good to me.

You'd look at him in a normal group 2 and think he is likely to find one too good, but maybe not today.

Will try and post another one for the free bets later, but have to go out now.

I rarely bet on horses, but I like your reasoning, I've put £10 on him (£5 EW)

[TightEnd]

Hamelin 3.05 has to be cast iron each way bet doesn't it?

Aljamaheer 4.25 too, ground too fast for Slade Power?

dick whittington and tiger cliff william hill offer horses?

[horseplayer]

Hamelin 3.05 has to be cast iron each way bet doesn't it?

Aljamaheer 4.25 too, ground too fast for Slade Power?

dick whittington and tiger cliff william hill offer horses?

I am puzzled why they have reached for the blinkers for Aljamaheer.

The horse can still struggle to settle so blinkers is a strange move, i am presuming Hanagan told Varian something was needed after last time but as fred remembers that was against Hamza at a track were it is near impossible to make up ground these days.

[bookiebasher]

England 17-20 v Costa Rica Tuesday.

They were 1-2 and don't really see why the big drift especially as Costa Rica
may well rest a few of their players.

Does anyone see it as a trading position to lay back at shorter ?

[RickBFA]

I've a question for Arbboy and Co.

It seems to me in a big meeting like Ascot there are lots of situations where you can back horses early and lay them in the last 30 mins before they run.

For example, its been clear that horses drawn high in the sprints this week have had an advantage.

I've not analysed the exact numbers but from what I've seen those fancied horses drawn high have almost all dropped in price significantly in the last 30 mins before the race. There have been big drops in their prices.

I presume this has been an attractive opportunity to back them and lay them later? I am missing something??