Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

What are the general thoughts on the insurebet that is offered by Padraig for a horse finishing in 2nd/3rd, I can't help but think there are spots in which we could take advantage of this when say the place terms aren't so favourable.  I am thinking mybe with horses like General Tufto around Southwell.  I haven't used this function before so just thinking out loudly.  Might also be a shout when there are 2 at the front of the market and we can't make up our mind of what one we want to be on. 

I'm sure there will be some good thoughts on this from Team Maths, and look forward to reading whether or not I'm thinking like a total mug. 

Are you talking about the money back if 2nd or 3rd offer on one race per day ?

They seem to offer money back on all races if you back a horse to win and it finishes 2nd or 3rd depending on how many runners there are, obviously if you take the insurance the odds are less.  

Eg in the next race @ Hexham St Gregory is 5/1 to win but if you take insurebet on it 2 places if it wins you get 4/1 ir it finishes 2nd you get money back.  If you take insurebet on 3 places you get 3/1 the win and refund if 2nd or 3rd.  

Looks like you are getting mugged. 

5/1 chance in a 8 runner race is likely more than 5/1 to finish 2nd etc. 

If you back a 9/1 runner in an 8 runner race, you probably gain a smidgen. 

But you are going to gain more by just going to whoever offers best price. 

[sonour]

I was in Ladbrokes on Friday when a guy came in and wanted £500 on Baltic Fire at 7/2 in the 7.35 at Newmarket. It was 5/1 at Betfred and 5.7 on Betfair at the time. He was offered £200 only.

What were they thinking ?

Presumably bookmakers have Betfair accounts but do they have accounts with other bookmakers ?

What was the sp? and secondly, how much did u get on at bald at 5/1? haha

SP 4/1 and it came 4th lol

[TightEnd]

I missed the Wozniaki bet

"I also want a bet in the fourth quarter where second seed Li Na and former champion Petra Kvitova reside.

Li has never been beyond the last eight in SW19, while Kvitova arrives under an injury cloud (hamstring). Even if she's fine, the Czech is notorious for drifting in matches - few players play as many three-setters as she does - and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone get the better of her before the business end of proceedings.

That person could be Sloane Stephens, who has performed well here before.

Last year the young American made the quarter-finals where she was competitive in a ding-dong battle with eventual champion Marion Bartoli.

In 2012 it took grass specialist Lisicki to halt her run in the last 32.

Stephens has made a habit of stepping up at the big tournaments - her last six Grand Slams have brought results as follows: R4-R4-R4-QF-R4-SF. That's impressive from a 21-year-old and I'll take her to win the quarter at 8/1."

from a betting column, because i have been searching the bottom half of the draw for opportunities because the make up of the market is so skewed

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/player-to-win-4th-quarter

is wozniacki at 9-1 any value to beat the top three here, and win the quarter?

Well one thing in favour of this is that Wozniacki always seems to beat Stephens, and beat her last week on grass.  Matches between Woznaicki and Li tend to be very close affairs.   On grass I wouldn't fancy Woz against Kvitova, but as you say it is 9-1 and Kvitova can easily beat herself against any opponent at any stage.

Saw Stosur is 14-1 but her Wimbledon record is poor (never beyond 3rd round in 10 years despite being a highly ranked player).  The thing that makes Woz's price interesting is her domination over Stephens for me.   9-1 seems a decent wager to me.

Women's Wimbledon 2014 Outright
Quarter 4
Wozniacki, Caroline    9/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 200.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 200.00

[TightEnd]

Re: Sloane to win her quarter, there's a bit of 50-1, half the odds 1, 2 around. That's 25-1 to make the final. This seems a better option than 5-1 to win her quarter now the price has gone on that?

could be

9/2 generally to win the quarter, backed in substantially today, tipped up in two decent spots i saw

40-1 best i can get outright, will watch it

60-1 888 for those who fancy it

[arbboy]

I was in Ladbrokes on Friday when a guy came in and wanted £500 on Baltic Fire at 7/2 in the 7.35 at Newmarket. It was 5/1 at Betfred and 5.7 on Betfair at the time. He was offered £200 only.

What were they thinking ?

Presumably bookmakers have Betfair accounts but do they have accounts with other bookmakers ?

What was the sp? and secondly, how much did u get on at bald at 5/1? haha

SP 4/1 and it came 4th lol

was he a casual punter then? or a known 'face' in the shop?

[Omm]

Re: Sloane to win her quarter, there's a bit of 50-1, half the odds 1, 2 around. That's 25-1 to make the final. This seems a better option than 5-1 to win her quarter now the price has gone on that?

could be

9/2 generally to win the quarter, backed in substantially today, tipped up in two decent spots i saw

40-1 best i can get outright, will watch it

60-1 888 for those who fancy it

888 win only

[RickBFA]

I presume the bookings points matchbet is still workable if the odds are 7/2??

Just looked at tomorrow's game, that's generally the price.

Still seems a value bet given the last few games.

[sonour]

I was in Ladbrokes on Friday when a guy came in and wanted £500 on Baltic Fire at 7/2 in the 7.35 at Newmarket. It was 5/1 at Betfred and 5.7 on Betfair at the time. He was offered £200 only.

What were they thinking ?

Presumably bookmakers have Betfair accounts but do they have accounts with other bookmakers ?

What was the sp? and secondly, how much did u get on at bald at 5/1? haha

SP 4/1 and it came 4th lol

was he a casual punter then? or a known 'face' in the shop?

Unknown to the shop. It made no sense at all. I would have expected to get that bet on in a Ladbrokes shop in which I was unknown.

In fact I would have expected to get on if they were top price and they were bottom price.

[arbboy]

does show u how clueless their lol traders are though in general.  I think the firm is massively under the cosh from the top down as i have been told in certain shops they won't even phone my bets through to H Q and to not even bother to come into a certain group of shops to attempt to place bets as they will never even be referred.

[jakally]

I presume the bookings points matchbet is still workable if the odds are 7/2??

Just looked at tomorrow's game, that's generally the price.

Still seems a value bet given the last few games.

Tomorrow's games are 3rd round group games.
In previous world cups, these have, on average, played differently to the first two games - more goals, more bookings, increase in corners etc...

If bookings increase, theoretically, the chance of a tie decreases.

Is 7/2 a bet? Personally, I'm not going to auto-bet the 3rd group games, and will look at them on a case by case basis.

[RickBFA]

I presume the bookings points matchbet is still workable if the odds are 7/2??

Just looked at tomorrow's game, that's generally the price.

Still seems a value bet given the last few games.

Tomorrow's games are 3rd round group games.
In previous world cups, these have, on average, played differently to the first two games - more goals, more bookings, increase in corners etc...

If bookings increase, theoretically, the chance of a tie decreases.

Is 7/2 a bet? Personally, I'm not going to auto-bet the 3rd group games, and will look at them on a case by case basis.

Cheers, sounds very sensible.

[horseplayer]

its all about to come out

Click to see full-size image.

[Tonji]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/10917965/Football-match-fixing-Ghana-chiefs-exposed-in-undercover-video.html

[Mark_Porter]

WSOP main event female numbers.

2011 -242 (3.5%)
2012 - 211 (3.2%)
2013 - 298 (4.69%)

There is £300 left on Betfair to back a female to NOT make the main event final table at 1/7. Shouldn't this be a lot shorter?

Not a recc for Fred.

[horseplayer]

are the drinks breaks always at 40 odd minutes in these late games?

Not caught a lot of the late ones if so is there an opportunity in the first half added time markets?