Tips for Tikay

[simonnatur]

Bet suggestion: Arashi 8.20 Kempton £10 e/w  11/2  , various. Selection is ultra consistent over C&D, drawn low, race meets Bad Beat's criteria for good value e/w betting. Poss negatives: career high handicap mark.
 

[Doobs]

Bet suggestion: Arashi 8.20 Kempton £10 e/w  11/2  , various. Selection is ultra consistent over C&D, drawn low, race meets Bad Beat's criteria for good value e/w betting. Poss negatives: career high handicap mark.
 

The win is a Betfair arb.  The place doesn't look great just looking at it (11/10 the place).  If we bet win only we likely have to be quick (only BMU and Lads now).

Edit reminder to self, bet then post.  BMU gone. 

[Tonji]

cycling

betfair, i can get the recommended prices on two of the selections

Sebastian Langeveld Top 3    25    £3.00    
£72.00
Ref: 39026354057M Matched: 09:39 09-Jul-14
John Degenkolb Winner    8.6    £10.00    
£76.00
Ref: 39026354056M Matched: 09:39 09-Jul-14
Sebastian Langeveld Winner    80    £3.00    
£237.00


sagan has come in a lot, now 13/2 best

Van A is also into 14/1

i need advice on whether to take these or not

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/stage-5/winner

Just back, been trying to cram a days work into one morning ahead of the race.

Best avoid Sagan & GVA now the price has shortened.

Race, has been altered for safety, with pave sectors 5 & 7 removed.  

[TightEnd]

Bet suggestion: Arashi 8.20 Kempton £10 e/w  11/2  , various. Selection is ultra consistent over C&D, drawn low, race meets Bad Beat's criteria for good value e/w betting. Poss negatives: career high handicap mark.
 

The win is a Betfair arb.  The place doesn't look great just looking at it (11/10 the place).  If we bet win only we likely have to be quick (only BMU and Lads now).

Edit reminder to self, bet then post.  BMU gone. 

so we shouldn't be doing this e/w?

[Tonji]

Rider Jens Voigt on twitter "Chaos and Mayham here we come- question today is no if you crash- the question is only how often and how hard you crash today.... Gladiators"

Will be quite a spectacle to say the least...

Start 1pm. Live Eurosport & later at 2pm on ITV 4.

[Doobs]

Bet suggestion: Arashi 8.20 Kempton £10 e/w  11/2  , various. Selection is ultra consistent over C&D, drawn low, race meets Bad Beat's criteria for good value e/w betting. Poss negatives: career high handicap mark.
 

The win is a Betfair arb.  The place doesn't look great just looking at it (11/10 the place).  If we bet win only we likely have to be quick (only BMU and Lads now).

Edit reminder to self, bet then post.  BMU gone. 

so we shouldn't be doing this e/w?

It has 9 runners but the betting shape isn't great.  Assuming we get 3 places then evens first 3 (assuming we can only get 5/1) is unlikely to beat Betfair if the prices remain as they are.  Not sure what Neil's criteria are and can't speak for him.  

  If the horse is good enough then none of this matters much.  I guess it is getting backed and if it stars at 3/1, evens first 3 is going to look very good.

[arbboy]

Bet suggestion: Arashi 8.20 Kempton £10 e/w  11/2  , various. Selection is ultra consistent over C&D, drawn low, race meets Bad Beat's criteria for good value e/w betting. Poss negatives: career high handicap mark.
 

The win is a Betfair arb.  The place doesn't look great just looking at it (11/10 the place).  If we bet win only we likely have to be quick (only BMU and Lads now).

Edit reminder to self, bet then post.  BMU gone. 

so we shouldn't be doing this e/w?

It has 9 runners but the betting shape isn't great.  Assuming we get 3 places then evens first 3 (assuming we can only get 5/1) is unlikely to beat Betfair if the prices remain as they are.  Not sure what Neil's criteria are and can't speak for him.  

  If the horse is good enough then none of this matters much.  I guess it is getting backed and if it stars at 3/1, evens first 3 is going to look very good.

This is not a good ew race even if there is a nr and the field reduces to 8.  It is far too competitive all the way down the field.  If we bet i would suggest win only.

[Doobs]

Betfair are paying SIX places on each-way bets at the Scottish Open

http://btfr.co/ScottishOpen 

Golf is our worst sport, unsurprisingly i suppose trying to pick winners of 60-80 runner majors mainly

its the open at Royal Liverpol/hoylake next week

the market for Royal Aberdeen is as follows

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/scottish-open

I like the look of Thongchai Jaidee for the Scottish Open (40/1). He has come 1st, Tied 5th & Tied 2nd in his last 3 European events.

Suggest £5 EW

 Singles
Odds Stake
Scottish Open 2014

    40/1
    £260.00
    Thongchai Jaidee
    Scottish Open Winner
    £5 EW
1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000050


https://www.betfair.com/sport/golf for the rest of the market paying six places

Just about everyone is going 6 places

Also don't bet on golf until you know the draw and if there is any weather bias (there probably won't be with this bet but as 8 firms are offering 40-1/6 places, we can wait a day) - I'm sure bobby1 said this in the early days of the thread but it is always ignored. 

You want a late draw?  Rain forecast in the afternoon, but the wind drops a little later and is better in the morning.  

On The Open, we should really wait until the offers are in too. A few firms paid 7 or 8 places and you could back chunks of the field +EV on those terms.  I think it was The Open last year where we had chunks on too early, so missed better bets later.

[Bad Beat]

 I looked at the Kempton 8.20 first thing this morning. Was really hoping to bet Dumbfounded at close to 4/1. I think it's a 9/4 chance and marginal value at 3/1, very solid each-way. The main danger is definitely Arashi and the race is pretty good for each-way with 9-runners and horses like Kent Ragstone and Reggie Perrin having lots to prove while Poitin and Markami are coming off bad runs and have doubts (Poitin-dodgepot? and Markami-trip?). Goldan Jass is priced as if it's certain to be ready after 317 days off and it has a good trainer but it would seem to be really assumed in the price. Albonny and Jezza look like the main dangers.

 Don't mind Arashi each-way but Dumbfounded each-way at 3/1 might be better.

 (I agree that generally races are better for each-way when there are a couple of 100/1+ chances and the favourite is skinny or the front two are 2/1 thus making the win prices of others stretch getting their place component to be too big).

 

[Doobs]

Totesport are going 13/8 Messi anytime right now.  Seems a shade of value, 7/5 best elsewhere.

[TightEnd]

Totesport are going 13/8 Messi anytime right now.  Seems a shade of value, 7/5 best elsewhere.

this is for tikay, as totesport isn't funded (normally use betfred)

[JaffaCake]

Totesport are going 13/8 Messi anytime right now.  Seems a shade of value, 7/5 best elsewhere.

2/1 in 90 mins PP Messenger, max £20

[doubleup]

Betfair are paying SIX places on each-way bets at the Scottish Open

http://btfr.co/ScottishOpen 

Golf is our worst sport, unsurprisingly i suppose trying to pick winners of 60-80 runner majors mainly

its the open at Royal Liverpol/hoylake next week

the market for Royal Aberdeen is as follows

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/scottish-open

I like the look of Thongchai Jaidee for the Scottish Open (40/1). He has come 1st, Tied 5th & Tied 2nd in his last 3 European events.

Suggest £5 EW

 Singles
Odds Stake
Scottish Open 2014

    40/1
    £260.00
    Thongchai Jaidee
    Scottish Open Winner
    £5 EW
1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000050


https://www.betfair.com/sport/golf for the rest of the market paying six places

Just about everyone is going 6 places

Also don't bet on golf until you know the draw and if there is any weather bias (there probably won't be with this bet but as 8 firms are offering 40-1/6 places, we can wait a day) - I'm sure bobby1 said this in the early days of the thread but it is always ignored. 

You want a late draw?  Rain forecast in the afternoon, but the wind drops a little later and is better in the morning.  

On The Open, we should really wait until the offers are in too. A few firms paid 7 or 8 places and you could back chunks of the field +EV on those terms.  I think it was The Open last year where we had chunks on too early, so missed better bets later.

Still mulling it over.  Don't think there is huge difference overall in the wind but def seems that it's going to be quite wet in the afternoon - also cold and day two the wind seems to be much the same all day. 

Would def play in the morning on Thursday if I had the choice

[Doobs]

Betfair are paying SIX places on each-way bets at the Scottish Open

http://btfr.co/ScottishOpen 

Golf is our worst sport, unsurprisingly i suppose trying to pick winners of 60-80 runner majors mainly

its the open at Royal Liverpol/hoylake next week

the market for Royal Aberdeen is as follows

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/scottish-open

I like the look of Thongchai Jaidee for the Scottish Open (40/1). He has come 1st, Tied 5th & Tied 2nd in his last 3 European events.

Suggest £5 EW

 Singles
Odds Stake
Scottish Open 2014

    40/1
    £260.00
    Thongchai Jaidee
    Scottish Open Winner
    £5 EW
1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000050


https://www.betfair.com/sport/golf for the rest of the market paying six places

Just about everyone is going 6 places

Also don't bet on golf until you know the draw and if there is any weather bias (there probably won't be with this bet but as 8 firms are offering 40-1/6 places, we can wait a day) - I'm sure bobby1 said this in the early days of the thread but it is always ignored. 

You want a late draw?  Rain forecast in the afternoon, but the wind drops a little later and is better in the morning.  

On The Open, we should really wait until the offers are in too. A few firms paid 7 or 8 places and you could back chunks of the field +EV on those terms.  I think it was The Open last year where we had chunks on too early, so missed better bets later.

Still mulling it over.  Don't think there is huge difference overall in the wind but def seems that it's going to be quite wet in the afternoon - also cold and day two the wind seems to be much the same all day. 

Would def play in the morning on Thursday if I had the choice

I dislike doing anything in the rain, but I thought wind was generally worse than rain.  Guess there isn't much in the draw, so I can just do my usual trawling of prices and not worry too much.

[Doobs]

Froome abandons the tour de France.  Good news for Wilkinson backers in SPOTY, not so much for those of us who have laid him in the Betfair place market