Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

Nibali has been matched at 1.8 outright 2 hours after Contador was matched at 1.4

Valverde finished ahead of Contador....

Awful lot to digest after that, but that was a one off stage, it'll be back to more standard stage racing.

Valverde comments after the stage:

"After all bad luck that we had, we could get through the day well," Valverde siad. "When I crashed I was perfectly positioned, within the first ten of the bunch, but some rider hit me from the left side, broke my gearing and made me hit the tarmac - it was quite a blow. I spent some seconds on the ground hurting, but Rojas came fast to give me his bike and all the team was sensational, always by my side.
 
"I had to do the final 60 kilometers, with all cobblestones on the route, with a seatpost 2.5cm smaller than mine, but it was really impossible to switch bikes before the finish, because it was 'full gas.'
 
"We must be happy, because even though we lost quite a bit of time against Nibali, we didn't concede much to others, and even won some seconds to riders like Alberto. It's obvious that Nibali is proving to be strong, as well as Fuglsang and all his team, but this has just started and there's all to play for in this Tour. Anything can happen."

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all look like they had a jolly ride out!

[horseplayer]

[Tonji]

Stage bets:

Degenkolb crashed & has some minor injuries finishing 153rd.

Langeveld & Garmin were well placed, until Talansky crashed & he was forced to pace him back, & finished 33rd.

[TightEnd]

aftertiming, and he was brilliant tonight

but why would you put Vlaar first of five penalties with robben, sneijder, huntelaar and kuyt in the line up?

it might not go to the fifth pen, so get the pens on the board...

grumpy goodnight from me!

[horseplayer]

I would presume because he had the balls to say he wanted to go first?

Looked that way to me was watching on a stream and LVG was asking around and he put his hand up.

Hate the analysis of penalties. Vlaars penalty wasnt great but it wasnt awful infact he struck it just as well as Messi did his. Difference being Romero guessed right and Dutch keeper didnt.

[TightEnd]

I would presume because he had the balls to say he wanted to go first?

Looked that way to me was watching on a stream and LVG was asking around and he put his hand up.

Hate the analysis of penalties. Vlaars penalty wasnt great but it wasnt awful infact he struck it just as well as Messi did his. Difference being Romero guessed right and Dutch keeper didnt.

nothing much wrong with the pen, but surely, as argentina did with messi, you put your top man first. Huntelaar or Rbben for them, and structure it around them?

manager has to insist

[horseplayer]

Garay went second though

Anyway small margins

[arbboy]

Agree with tightend on the pens.  Seems so logical to me i can't believe managers even think of doing it any other way than the best first.  

Anyway bald are still desperate to 'give away' rodrig on the top scorer market as they are obviously full of messi (they are 5/1 when everyone else is 8/1 or 10/1).  They are 8/13 recommend the max with bald and lay back whatever to get a bet we are comfortable with so we get a bet effectively at bigger than 8/13.  Should be able to lay between 1.5 and 1.55 quite easily.

As i type this bwin go 7/10 rodrig which is comical and should obviously also be hoovered up for the max they allow.  Bwin are obviously full of Muller with their huge German client base and go 6/4 Muller when everyone else is 5/2.  Bwin are also bigger than bf messi at 17/1

[Doobs]

There is a will hill offer horse in the 2.40 at Newmarket tomorrow.  Suggest £25 Arab Spring at 5/4.

It is going to be a very good each way race if 8 go, and thread's favourite dodgepot, Pether's Moon is amongst the runners.  Would be a great bet with 8, especially if you can get quarter the odds first 3, but I suggest we should wait on any non runners.

The 3.15 looks a good each way race, but with only b365, laddies and spoils offering quarter first 3, then it might not be so great for thread, though there is a tiny arb on Manage All (just beats win price and place price) with BMU.  Will have a look again tomorrow.  

[arbboy]

Ladbrokes turn to go bonkers and offer 16/5 muller when bf is around 11/4.  

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/top-goalscorer

[mondatoo]

Van Gaals thoughts on the 3rd place playoff : http://sports.yahoo.com/news/louis-van-gaal-blasts-fifa-for-continuing-to-play-world-cup-third-place-game-000718235.html

You would expect Brazil would want to restore some pride after the Germany game so are more likely to be close to full strength.

I'd say there is pretty much 0% chance RVP plays any part in the game.

Thiago Silva, who was clearly a huge miss, may well want to play as it could be his last World Cup, his thoughts http://www.goal.com/en-sg/news/3999/world-cup-2014/2014/07/10/4948049/thiago-silva-brazil-need-our-fans-now-more-than-ever

Maybe best avoided since it's possibly going to play out like a friendly. What price before we want to back Brazil ?

They are currently best price 11/8 at BetBictor

[horseplayer]

"I asked two players to take the first ball before ending up with Vlaar," said new Manchester United boss Van Gaal.

Van Gaal, who will begin his new job at Old Trafford after the tournament, also rued the intervention of Romero, who he signed in 2007 when he was coach of AZ Alkmaar.
Monaco keeper Romero, 27, spent two seasons playing under Van Gaal at the Dutch club before the coach left to join Bayern Munich.
"I taught Romero how to stop penalties, so that hurts," he said. "We were the club to bring him to Europe. He was a big talent, and someone who has the qualities to do that."

Lvg still wins....

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £13.36

Outstanding Bets £2213.20

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=27

A loss of £1 yesterday

- Argentina made the World Cup final for a profit of £75 (3-1)

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- Netherlands didn't, loss of £60

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- Stage losers on the Tour De France stage 5 -£16

the stage included a lotto rollover.

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For the World cup final we now have £50 e/w Argentina at 4-1, for the match between what has emerged as the best team of the tournament against the team of the best player of his generation, and Argentina are in as 13/5 underdogs for the final

We also have an interesting one with the Neymar e/w for golden boot at 14-1 as the goals have dried up for the main contenders since his injury

currently 

James RODRIGUEZ   6   
Thomas MUELLER   5   
NEYMAR   4   
Lionel MESSI   4   
Andre SCHUERRLE   3   
Toni KROOS    2   
Miroslav KLOSE    2   
Mats HUMMELS   2   

the e/w bet pays 4 places so we are hoping none of the Germans on the list above catch him up, or anything silly like a Higuain hat-trick, to at least salvage a small profit

Messi, (£10 at 7-1) still leads the whoscored.com player ratings for the World Cup, see

http://www.whoscored.com/Regions/247/Tournaments/36/Seasons/3768/Stages/10274/PlayerStatistics/International-FIFA-World-Cup-2014

In the TdeF the general classification was shaken up yesterday on the wet cobbles, and Nibali is 13/10 favourite, Contador 7/4 12/1 after the exit of Froome yesterday
The last time the reigning Tour de France winner started and abandoned the Tour was in 1980 (Bernard Hinault)

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not a good tour for British riders

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in the overall we have Valverde who lies 10th, 2.11 off the yellow jersey. Back to a sprinters stage today

In the cricket just about advantage India after the first of 25 days of test cricket in the next 42. With the weather expected to be bad, the draw is now odds-on. If the weather was to hold, a different story

Pujara scored 38, and looked as if he was in for the day until..

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it was left to Murali Vijay to bat all day
 

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in the tennis Fognini plays Golubevs today in the Mercedes open

in baseball, the Royals took the series off the Rays thanks to a 3 run hit in the 9th from Salvador Perez. The Orioles lost and the yankees won

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[TightEnd]

There is a will hill offer horse in the 2.40 at Newmarket tomorrow.  Suggest £25 Arab Spring at 5/4.

It is going to be a very good each way race if 8 go, and thread's favourite dodgepot, Pether's Moon is amongst the runners.  Would be a great bet with 8, especially if you can get quarter the odds first 3, but I suggest we should wait on any non runners.

The 3.15 looks a good each way race, but with only b365, laddies and spoils offering quarter first 3, then it might not be so great for thread, though there is a tiny arb on Manage All (just beats win price and place price) with BMU.  Will have a look again tomorrow. 

£25 Arab Spring 5/4 WH Mobile

Money back as free bet if 2nd


I am out until this evening, so badger tikay if there are any more, whether Newmarket or any other sport, today please

[TightEnd]

arbboy's posts on golden boot

currently

James RODRIGUEZ   6   
Thomas MUELLER   5   
Lionel MESSI   4

and the market

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/top-goalscorer

7/10- bwin j-rod
11/4 muller ladbrokes
14/1 coral messi   

are the best available tikay. up to you if you want to press any of these given the indication that the front two prices are out of line due to shape of books