Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Cocks of the Course is my fav

I avoided using "CoC's" for precisely that reason!

But really, are they THAT bad? They must, up to a point, know their stuff, surely?

[Bad Beat]

 Just the ones with the watering-can fetish. They always say the forecast was unclear, (often when rain is clearly predicted), that they re watering to maintain, (then they put 10mm on when 4mm is the amount that is needed to maintain and they let it get softer), they talk about safety when there is no evidence that good/firm causes more injuries and fatalities than good.

 So many great festivals totally ruined. Obviously much harder for punters when the going report is inaccurate, the stick will have the same reading on two days and one will be called good to firm while one is called good to soft. It's hard enough to find an edge but when they constatntly randomize and change the variables it makes for bigger priced winners. The BHA depend on the bookmakers profits from horseracing to fund the sport and they are issuing guidelines to the c of c's. They can get away with this shit by playing the horse welfare card.

 This bloke at Doncaster is a total clown, the Haydock and Goodwood ones are the worst though.

[horseplayer]

There are a few good ones, mainly the ones who are not addicted to getting their hoses out.....

[Doobs]

There used to be a massive thread on the betfair ante post forum called clerkwatch.  In it people moaned about watering and the inconsistencies in going.  Was nearly as long as Tikay's diary. 

[tikay]

Just the ones with the watering-can fetish. They always say the forecast was unclear, (often when rain is clearly predicted), that they re watering to maintain, (then they put 10mm on when 4mm is the amount that is needed to maintain and they let it get softer), they talk about safety when there is no evidence that good/firm causes more injuries and fatalities than good.

 So many great festivals totally ruined. Obviously much harder for punters when the going report is inaccurate, the stick will have the same reading on two days and one will be called good to firm while one is called good to soft. It's hard enough to find an edge but when they constatntly randomize and change the variables it makes for bigger priced winners. The BHA depend on the bookmakers profits from horseracing to fund the sport and they are issuing guidelines to the c of c's. They can get away with this shit by playing the horse welfare card.

 This bloke at Doncaster is a total clown, the Haydock and Goodwood ones are the worst though.

It's not exactly scientiftic though, or is it?

Do they still use this thing?


http://www.turftrax.co.uk/goingstick.html

Whatever way you look at that, it's pushing a stick in the ground.

[tikay]

There used to be a massive thread on the betfair ante post forum called clerkwatch.  In it people moaned about watering and the inconsistencies in going.  Was nearly as long as Tikay's diary. 

Eh?

People on Betfair Forum MOANED?

Not having that.

[claypole]

On the back of my Rodriquez bet at 4/1 - that's a Bok if ever I have seen one, I'd like to put a Doobs bet up with extra insight.

Forever Now is strongly fancied in the first at Newmarket - and with the money back second with Boyles and I guess Hills (never bet there no account) is a bet at 9/4

Reccomend £25

[tikay]

On the back of my Rodriquez bet at 4/1 - that's a Bok if ever I have seen one, I'd like to put a Doobs bet up with extra insight.

Forever Now is strongly fancied in the first at Newmarket - and with the money back second with Boyles and I guess Hills (never bet there no account) is a bet at 9/4

Reccomend £25

Thanks Shaun.

What does "strongly fancied" mean?

We don't use Boyles, but it is 9/4 pretty much everywhere.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/13:40/winner

Presumably, with the "OFFER" added in (Money Back as Free Bet if 2nd) this adds a bit to the value?

Happy to get on, but need someone to hold my hand.

[Doobs]

On the back of my Rodriquez bet at 4/1 - that's a Bok if ever I have seen one, I'd like to put a Doobs bet up with extra insight.

Forever Now is strongly fancied in the first at Newmarket - and with the money back second with Boyles and I guess Hills (never bet there no account) is a bet at 9/4

Reccomend £25

Thanks Shaun.

What does "strongly fancied" mean?

We don't use Boyles, but it is 9/4 pretty much everywhere.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/13:40/winner

Presumably, with the "OFFER" added in (Money Back as Free Bet if 2nd) this adds a bit to the value?

Happy to get on, but need someone to hold my hand.

It means it has shortened in price.  I have backed Windshear in that race under the offer, but the maths is much the same on either.  Our Ascot winner, Hartnell, has been a bit of a drifter in that race.  The Hills price is a long way from Betfair on Hartnell, so that definitely isn't one for the offer (just back it on Betfair if you fancy it).

Edit.  This is a bit like the last race on .  Hartnell and  Windshear have the Asvot form, Forever Now is very promising but hasn't beat much. 

[tikay]

On the back of my Rodriquez bet at 4/1 - that's a Bok if ever I have seen one, I'd like to put a Doobs bet up with extra insight.

Forever Now is strongly fancied in the first at Newmarket - and with the money back second with Boyles and I guess Hills (never bet there no account) is a bet at 9/4

Reccomend £25

Thanks Shaun.

What does "strongly fancied" mean?

We don't use Boyles, but it is 9/4 pretty much everywhere.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/13:40/winner

Presumably, with the "OFFER" added in (Money Back as Free Bet if 2nd) this adds a bit to the value?

Happy to get on, but need someone to hold my hand.

It means it has shortened in price.  I have backed Windshear in that race under the offer, but the maths is much the same on either.  Our Ascot winner, Hartnell, has been a bit of a drifter in that race.  The Hills price is a long way from Betfair on Hartnell, so that definitely isn't one for the offer (just back it on Betfair if you fancy it).

I was just trying to find a way of asking the question without seeming rude. "strongly fancied" could apply to a lot of proposed bets.

Anyway, I'll load up in a tick.

[tikay]

On the back of my Rodriquez bet at 4/1 - that's a Bok if ever I have seen one, I'd like to put a Doobs bet up with extra insight.

Forever Now is strongly fancied in the first at Newmarket - and with the money back second with Boyles and I guess Hills (never bet there no account) is a bet at 9/4

Reccomend £25

Thanks Shaun,

We are on board.

£25 @ 9/4, Wm Hil MOBILE, FOREVER NOW, Free Bet if 2nd

BET PLACED

[claypole]

Pm sent Tikay

[arbboy]

Someone fancies ivey to take down the wsop main event on betfair as a day 2 chip leader.  They just had £50 at 13/1 he wins the main event and another £35 at 19/1.  People are queuing up to get on at 30/1.  Is the great man really that good even with a chip lead?  What price would people seriously make him at this stage given his chip count which is 18 times starting stack.

[tikay]

Someone fancies ivey to take down the wsop main event on betfair as a day 2 chip leader.  They just had £50 at 13/1 he wins the main event and another £35 at 19/1.  People are queuing up to get on at 30/1.  Is the great man really that good even with a chip lead?  What price would people seriously make him at this stage given his chip count which is 18 times starting stack.

Well surely x-times starting stack is irrelevant?

In theory, we'd need to know how many runners remain, then factor in his skill advantage against the field.

If I were forced to bet on the winner, he's as good as any, but I could not take those prices, not even close. I'd want a LOT better, 50/1, even 66/1. 

It ought to be possible to do the maths, as to how many left, his edge, & his stack size.

[claypole]

Someone fancies ivey to take down the wsop main event on betfair as a day 2 chip leader.  They just had £50 at 13/1 he wins the main event and another £35 at 19/1.  People are queuing up to get on at 30/1.  Is the great man really that good even with a chip lead?  What price would people seriously make him at this stage given his chip count which is 18 times starting stack.

I was thinking exactly the same this morning - clearly he has a massive chip stack, in a tournament with a ridiculously slow structure combined with lots of spots and his undoubted talent - balanced with it's the end of day two ffs and he has to negotiate 4 more days and a final with loads if good players still in - at this is hold em so do not care what anyone says he may be the greatest but his edge against any top hold em players is not as great as the mainstream media would believe or what it is in some mixed game fields.

I was thinking I would be happy to lay at up to 50/1. I would lay all day at the two prices you have seen taken this morning, and if I was rolled accordingly I would be laying win only at 30/1. Pure instinct tho based on runnjng deep in that comp (thin), having an opinion on Ivey and poker - no maths and I haven't got a clue what that would say but would be genuinely interested