Tips for Tikay

[Nico29]

There is a difference between likely to happen and value.
They may not be likely to happen but if they beat the Betfair price they are almost certainly value.

+1000

Don't get the unlikely to happen argument. It is all about value simples.

[tikay]

 My only remaining pleasure in life is sex.

Not getting that one through buddy.

He might be confusing sex with holding his willy during the spuktdtdpt thingy.

You must read my Twitter blatherings, Ralph.

I must admit, my Bosses did arch an eyebrow at my comment. I thought my comment conveyed my feelings quite well. And it was true. Back in the day, it was what all kids did when they were excited.

[tikay]

Until last week Singhee hadn't been on the forum for nearly two years. It is great that he is back

Since that time though the majority of bets are now placed by me, and personally i find it far easier to have a few lines, a paragraph, or a couple of bullet points of reasoning for a bet

this helps me put the bet on knowing it is based off something logical. After all for the thread it is not my money

It also helps others to know the reasoning so they can question, agree or disagree or point out mistakes if it happens to coincide with an area they have knowledge in

i agree that some posters are auto-bet but its not too easy to pile £100+ onto something with one line, whoever posts it

that said, i wasn't in a position to do yesterday's, but thats the process i think we should follow.

Not everyone wants to do War Ant Peace but putting down some of the reasoning and research is what can set us apart

Thats no problem to be honest i prefer putting up the reasoning...................but the times I dont is when im posting off my phone and i dont have the time

So to clarify i dont have time to put up the reason you would prefer for me not to put the bet up?

Morning singheee.

I think my comment was perhaps clumsily worded, my apologies, but it does give me opportunity to clarify.

First & most important, it matters not if Fred gets on or not, what matters is that everyone here sees the Post, & can make their own minds up. It's clear that almost all the Freddies got on, BOOM!, so that justifies your Post, as presented.

And yes, you have always been an auto-bet with Fred.

Since you last Posted, 2 years ago, Tighty has taken over the bet placement. When he took over placing the bets (which is still with my money) I only gave him one instruction/request, which was to try & get some proper reasoning & logic before placing bets. Which sort of "crossed" with the guys we auto-bet. (The exception being, ignore Chompy & his Big Brother bollox, obv).

There are exceptions of course - when time is of the essence from a trusted Poster, etc, which was presumably the case here. In many such cases, Fred simply does not have the time to get on when Recommends are Posted late.

For the record, I think, except in awkward circumstances, (late info or Posts etc) ALL Recommends should have some reasoning attached, simply because it helps all of us to learn. An "auto-bet" does not HAVE to have reasoning, but it has to be better if it has. When any of the Elders or auto-bet lads stick a bet up, it almost always has some reasoning attached, which I think is a great thing.

A bet went up last night which Fred missed, & the bet won. (Costa to score first for Chelsea). I know Tighty would never have bet it, as it offered no reasoning at all. Others could, & did, I hope. The point is, WHY was it a good bet? There was no reasoning or explanation, just the bet & the price. Personally, I prefer to know WHY we are punting something, so I can make my own mind up. Maybe I'm an awkward old sod, but I do like to be able to apply some judgement to the logic. So I'm pleased others got on, or I hope they did, but for me, I much prefer to see, where possible, the reasoning.

[horseplayer]

Also
 Instabet app I've been backing blind this weekend as I've been super busy have the bets all still been good?

I personally don't think so, but it depends on your definition. Yes,they all beat the Betfair price, but I didn't back any of the recent ones because I didn't feel that they were very likely to happen:

3/1 Dzeko anytime: Although 90+% likely to start, he's not exactly prolific
11/4 Dzeko or Jovetich to score anytime: see above
3/1 Sanchez to score anytime: A big name, but new to the prem so I wouldn't want to back or put in my FPL team - takes most attackers at least a few months to settle/find their feet when coming in from a foreign league   ;-)
5/2 14+ goals in 3pm prem league games: teams often start their campaigns quite conservative, especially when they are quite evenly matched in ability as a lot of these were on Saturday.

If your getting Dzeko at 3/1 anytime every game this season you will be winning money by the end of the season

[tikay]

Also
 Instabet app I've been backing blind this weekend as I've been super busy have the bets all still been good?

I personally don't think so, but it depends on your definition. Yes,they all beat the Betfair price, but I didn't back any of the recent ones because I didn't feel that they were very likely to happen:

3/1 Dzeko anytime: Although 90+% likely to start, he's not exactly prolific
11/4 Dzeko or Jovetich to score anytime: see above
3/1 Sanchez to score anytime: A big name, but new to the prem so I wouldn't want to back or put in my FPL team - takes most attackers at least a few months to settle/find their feet when coming in from a foreign league   ;-)
5/2 14+ goals in 3pm prem league games: teams often start their campaigns quite conservative, especially when they are quite evenly matched in ability as a lot of these were on Saturday.

If your getting Dzeko at 3/1 anytime every game this season you will be winning money by the end of the season

Logically, yes, because he has scored 46 in 118 appearances for Man City. If we can assume he will contnue to be so prolific, it seems like an extraordinary price.

[a.sparrow]

Thanks again singhee! Just to echo what others have said, auto bet for me even without reasoning.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £340.43

Outstanding Bets £3938.31

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28

A profit of £50 yesterday with Atlanta beating Pittsburgh 7-3 for Singhee and a £55 profit, offset by Diego Costa not first goal scorer (he scored second) at Turf Moor for a loss of £5

Atlanta scored 6 runs in the first innings, which set things up nicely

Click to see full-size image.

Costa close but no coffee for us

Click to see full-size image.

elsehwere in the baseball, for the season ebts, more good news

The Royals beat the Twins 6-4. With Detroit not playing, The Royals moved 2 games clear at the top of the AL central, and are 21-5 in the last month. In a sport where every team is 40% to 60% wins over a season, this is quite a run. 

Click to see full-size image.

The Orioles beat the White Sox 8-2, with the Yankees not playing they moved 7.5 games clear at the top of the AL East

Click to see full-size image.

Meanwhile, as cricket fans are great fans of stats, it was nice to see the Top Trumps game updated yesterday

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

A profit of £50 yesterday with Atlanta beating Pittsburgh 7-3 for Singhee and a £55 profit, offset by Diego Costa not first goal scorer (he scored second)

We never missed Singheeee this time, thank you!

Apologies for the wrong info as to Costa in my earlier Post, but it does not alter my point.

[arbboy]

Chelski 1/4 with betbright at weekend v Leicester.  Worth £50 if fred has betbright account.  Is already shorter on bf.

[TheChipPrince]

FWIW 3/1 Dzeko was a half time instabet, the 11/4 Dzeko or Jovetic to score 1st was the pre-game one

[sonour]

Tikay,

When I saw the first Singhee bet late at night just before the game was due to start I nearly bet it for Fred.
I knew you and Tighty were busy and unlikely to get on and I thought Singhee was autobets for Fred as he is for me.
What do you want to do in future ?
Is there a list of autobets posters ? Would you want to publish one ?

[redarmi]

Chelski 1/4 with betbright at weekend v Leicester.  Worth £50 if fred has betbright account.  Is already shorter on bf.

Feel quite strongly that this isn't value.  That's not to say you shouldn't bet it as if it is shorter it is tradeable I just don't think they are value.  Massive overreaction to their win last night imo.

[arbboy]

Chelski 1/4 with betbright at weekend v Leicester.  Worth £50 if fred has betbright account.  Is already shorter on bf.

Feel quite strongly that this isn't value.  That's not to say you shouldn't bet it as if it is shorter it is tradeable I just don't think they are value.  Massive overreaction to their win last night imo.

That's pretty much all i did to nick a score risk free.  They would only lay just under a grand at 1/4 anyway.

[tikay]

Tikay,

When I saw the first Singhee bet late at night just before the game was due to start I nearly bet it for Fred.
I knew you and Tighty were busy and unlikely to get on and I thought Singhee was autobets for Fred as he is for me.
What do you want to do in future ?
Is there a list of autobets posters ? Would you want to publish one ?

Thanks Lisa,

Think it's partly true that Tighty & I were so busy that it sort of got demoted in our priorities, with more time, I'm sure we'd have sorted it. I was so busy fetching lattes for Tighty, unbelievable.

There is not a formal "list" of "autobet" posters, & if I posted a rough guide as to who they were, I'd upset a lot of people, I fear......!

I will send it to you by PM though, & if you feel able, when you know Tighty & I are a bit waylaid, if you could get something on, it'd be much appreciated.  Might take me an hour or two to formulate, otherwise I'll forget a few, so bear with me please.

A grand gesture, thank you very much.

[horseplayer]

Not sure when they did but Lads are first 4 places the Leger

They are also competitive or best on most of the main fancies, havent looked at race in any detail just putting it out there