Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Hillies are joint biggest about Europe for the Ryder Cup (8/13) and are still bizarrely offering 1/5 July being the hottest month.

Essentially the 1/5 is just good for boosting any of their prices until they finally take it down and the double here comes to just shy of evens. Suggest flicking in a hundo.

all whill stuff on hold until our finance director completes a rebalance sorry  

Just deposited £200 on WH, with some difficulty, I might add, as my Card has changed since my last deposit there.

I don't actually recall ever topping up the WH Account before, we must have run good with them, & yet they have never Restricted me in any way.  I know we are not supposed to admire bookmakers (all boo in unison), but that is the best account we have, in many ways.

[redarmi]

Thinking aloud slightly but I wonder if there is a correlation today between Australia (340 York) and Kingston Hill (305 York) in that the Derby is clearly the key piece of form for both horses and there are now some doubts about its validity.  If Kingston Hill was to win today that would boost that form and make Australia slightly more likely to win.  Conversely if Kingston Hill got beat Australia might be more likely to lose.  I would probably go with the latter view personally and think perming something like Hartnell/Snow Sky/Postponed with Mukhadram/Telescope in doubles might provide some value.  Bit of a shame the 340 isn't an each way race or it might be a bet to go to town with.

[TightEnd]

I can't get on with Ladbrokes, but they are the only ones offering 10/1 Statutory in the 4.20.  This one seems sure to stay.  He carries too weight, but has a bit of class.  Think the place terms are very good. 

I assume we can still get something on, so suggest 20 e/w at the 10/1 if we can get it.

8/1 i am afraid

juggling too many balls to be very quick this morning

take or leave?

[TightEnd]

Hillies are joint biggest about Europe for the Ryder Cup (8/13) and are still bizarrely offering 1/5 July being the hottest month.

Essentially the 1/5 is just good for boosting any of their prices until they finally take it down and the double here comes to just shy of evens. Suggest flicking in a hundo.

all whill stuff on hold until our finance director completes a rebalance sorry 

going to leave this one for now. likely to have a fair amount of mobile offer activity this week on WH

if at the end of the week i can park £100 on 8/13 coupled with 1/5 then i will do so

That 1/5 has to be daft doesn't it? it was positively autumnal yesterday.

[Doobs]

I can't get on with Ladbrokes, but they are the only ones offering 10/1 Statutory in the 4.20.  This one seems sure to stay.  He carries too weight, but has a bit of class.  Think the place terms are very good. 

I assume we can still get something on, so suggest 20 e/w at the 10/1 if we can get it.

8/1 i am afraid

juggling too many balls to be very quick this morning

take or leave?

I took 9/1 with Shy.  Am just going out, if it is less than that elsewhere, give it a miss.

[TightEnd]

I can't get on with Ladbrokes, but they are the only ones offering 10/1 Statutory in the 4.20.  This one seems sure to stay.  He carries too weight, but has a bit of class.  Think the place terms are very good. 

I assume we can still get something on, so suggest 20 e/w at the 10/1 if we can get it.

8/1 i am afraid

juggling too many balls to be very quick this morning

take or leave?

I took 9/1 with Shy.  Am just going out, if it is less than that elsewhere, give it a miss.

ok 9/1 betway and the exchange only so will leave it and check later

[TightEnd]

I missed one earlier.  Basateen is 2/1 in the 2.30, best 9/4 elsewhere, so the maths should bd strong enough on that one.  I know this means we have 2 in that race, but both are good due to the enhancements(pity we missed that 7/1, assuming they can't palp on an enhancement! It did look much better than their average one to me).

placed £25 at 2-1, money back as free bet if 2nd

[redarmi]

Thinking aloud slightly but I wonder if there is a correlation today between Australia (340 York) and Kingston Hill (305 York) in that the Derby is clearly the key piece of form for both horses and there are now some doubts about its validity.  If Kingston Hill was to win today that would boost that form and make Australia slightly more likely to win.  Conversely if Kingston Hill got beat Australia might be more likely to lose.  I would probably go with the latter view personally and think perming something like Hartnell/Snow Sky/Postponed with Mukhadram/Telescope in doubles might provide some value.  Bit of a shame the 340 isn't an each way race or it might be a bet to go to town with.

Interestingly Betfair Sportsbook have an enhanced double Australia and Kingston Hill at 3/1 which is better than their multiplied Betfair exchange prices.  As much as I don't really fancy them I think that is probably a touch of value given possible correlation.

[Doobs]

I can't get on with Ladbrokes, but they are the only ones offering 10/1 Statutory in the 4.20.  This one seems sure to stay.  He carries too weight, but has a bit of class.  Think the place terms are very good.  

I assume we can still get something on, so suggest 20 e/w at the 10/1 if we can get it.

8/1 i am afraid

juggling too many balls to be very quick this morning

take or leave?

I took 9/1 with Shy.  Am just going out, if it is less than that elsewhere, give it a miss.

ok 9/1 betway and the exchange only so will leave it and check later

All 3 handicaps are down to 16 already, so definitely a good decision.  

[arbboy]

Hillies are joint biggest about Europe for the Ryder Cup (8/13) and are still bizarrely offering 1/5 July being the hottest month.

Essentially the 1/5 is just good for boosting any of their prices until they finally take it down and the double here comes to just shy of evens. Suggest flicking in a hundo.

I went in yesterday for a four figure bet at 1/5 and they have still held it.  I have no idea what is going on.  I had a detailed look at a 4 week forecast at the met office yday and it looks impossible to get much above average temp for the time of year til mid september never mind close to 90 degrees.  Totally agree with Chompy on putting it in doubles with anything at hills.  Not sure when they will settle.  I am assuming 31 Oct given they don't offer November in their betting.

I think when the DMail run the heatwave for August story a few weeks back they actually laid some lumpy bets on August as July actually drifted on the day of the story when they shortened August so they might be happy to accommodate 1/5 backers now to 'green up' on the coup.  Looks a real 1/20 shot to me.  A 'clean' hills account will lay a £250/£1250 bet.

[tikay]

Hillies are joint biggest about Europe for the Ryder Cup (8/13) and are still bizarrely offering 1/5 July being the hottest month.

Essentially the 1/5 is just good for boosting any of their prices until they finally take it down and the double here comes to just shy of evens. Suggest flicking in a hundo.

I went in yesterday for a four figure bet at 1/5 and they have still held it.  I have no idea what is going on.  I had a detailed look at a 4 week forecast at the met office yday and it looks impossible to get much above average temp for the time of year til mid september never mind close to 90 degrees.  Totally agree with Chompy on putting it in doubles with anything at hills.  Not sure when they will settle.  I am assuming 31 Oct given they don't offer November in their betting.

I think when the DMail run the heatwave for August story a few weeks back they actually laid some lumpy bets on August as July actually drifted on the day of the story when they shortened August so they might be happy to accommodate 1/5 backers now to 'green up' on the coup.  Looks a real 1/20 shot to me.  A 'clean' hills account will lay a £250/£1250 bet.

It's a near perfect bet, it seems, the only drawback being tying up cash for another 10 weeks. redarmi has a term for that ("loss of utility" or something), & it's a reasonable point. The double, of course, which gets us to Evens (assuming the "long shot" gets home) is more attractive to those of us who bet smaller. A single @ 1/5, for 10 weeks, appeals much less when big stakes are involved.

As a pro punter, of course, it's a no-brainer.

God bless Chompers. How does he spot these things? Guess there is not much to do out in the Fens.

[Tal]

Tighty and others, when do we start thinking about backing the Cowboys to beat the 49ers on 7 September?

Two very heavy defeats in preseason so far (aggregate of 57-3) contract disputes, a reportedly very unhappy dressing locker room and playing away against a team that can only attack.

Currently 21/10 for the Cowboys to win. 5.5 points the spread, if that appeals instead, although I think that's about the same anyway.

[TightEnd]

Tighty and others, when do we start thinking about backing the Cowboys to beat the 49ers on 7 September?

Two very heavy defeats in preseason so far (aggregate of 57-3) contract disputes, a reportedly very unhappy dressing locker room and playing away against a team that can only attack.

Currently 21/10 for the Cowboys to win. 5.5 points the spread, if that appeals instead, although I think that's about the same anyway.

we've already played overs on the points. Cowboys defense looks horrible, just lacks talent even before injuries and the 49ers are going to be missing some key pieces

there is only one contract dispute isn't there? Boone the guard

personally, whilst accepting that 5.5 point home dogs to start the season is a big spread i don't have much confidence in the cowboys going into the season and thought the points, not having to sweat a team winning, was a better play

[Tal]

Tighty and others, when do we start thinking about backing the Cowboys to beat the 49ers on 7 September?

Two very heavy defeats in preseason so far (aggregate of 57-3) contract disputes, a reportedly very unhappy dressing locker room and playing away against a team that can only attack.

Currently 21/10 for the Cowboys to win. 5.5 points the spread, if that appeals instead, although I think that's about the same anyway.

we've already played overs on the points. Cowboys defense looks horrible, just lacks talent even before injuries and the 49ers are going to be missing some key pieces

there is only one contract dispute isn't there? Boone the guard

personally, whilst accepting that 5.5 point home dogs to start the season is a big spread i don't have much confidence in the cowboys going into the season and thought the points, not having to sweat a team winning, was a better play

Fair enough, if you've already played the game, no point doing more.

3 points in two games is a worry, when the Cowboys will be having 50 point games every week.

[TightEnd]

Tighty and others, when do we start thinking about backing the Cowboys to beat the 49ers on 7 September?

Two very heavy defeats in preseason so far (aggregate of 57-3) contract disputes, a reportedly very unhappy dressing locker room and playing away against a team that can only attack.

Currently 21/10 for the Cowboys to win. 5.5 points the spread, if that appeals instead, although I think that's about the same anyway.

we've already played overs on the points. Cowboys defense looks horrible, just lacks talent even before injuries and the 49ers are going to be missing some key pieces

there is only one contract dispute isn't there? Boone the guard

personally, whilst accepting that 5.5 point home dogs to start the season is a big spread i don't have much confidence in the cowboys going into the season and thought the points, not having to sweat a team winning, was a better play

Fair enough, if you've already played the game, no point doing more.

3 points in two games is a worry, when the Cowboys will be having 50 point games every week.

its pretty irrelevant

Kaepernick/Gore/Crabtree/Boldin/Vernon Davis and co will click just fine for a fortnight's time

as a first team unit the offense is yet to play more than a series together this pre-season

this is something useful you might like to bookmark

http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/