Tips for Tikay

[scotty2hatty]

After failing a drug test less than 18 months ago, Marin Clic won the US Open in the first final without one of the big three and Murray since 2005

big 4*

[a.sparrow]

Any thoughts on bale to score 2 or more vs Andorra tonight? Similar to the lewandowski bet the other night.  Wales are obviously big favorites, Bale is in good scoring form and i read a tweet last night saying that Coleman is thinking of playing him as a striker tonight.  I wish i had posted at the time of reading as I can't find it now to post here.  Anyway he is current top price of 13/5 :

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/andorra-v-wales/to-score-2-or-more-goals

I've had a bet, i'm not sure if its value or not, but if some others agree maybe fred can get on, if not then some others may want to follow.  I guess it depends on if he does start upfront or not, in which case it may be worth waiting for team news before placing.

[Marky147]

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/wolves-kenny-jackett-dismisses-mario-7739531

1.01 landed!

Not the only 1.01 landed today

[TightEnd]

caption competition?

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[ripple11]

caption competition?

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A legend of horse racing, exceedingly brave, incredibly talented, winners galore........

and AP McCoy.

[Marky147]

caption competition?

Click to see full-size image.

A legend of horse racing, exceedingly brave, incredibly talented, winners galore........

and AP McCoy.

Well played, sir!

[arbboy]

Our Indyref bet is as follows

29-Aug   arbboy   ladbrokes   sept-2014   misc.   independence referendum   Yes 45-50%   7/2   50

this is currently trading at 11/8, offered in one place

 http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage


the last few days have seen a big close up in the polls

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- On Saturday night the YouGov poll put Yes ahead for the first time, 51-49



- later that evening Panelbase released as follows

Yes: 44% No: 48% Undecided: 8% Excluding undecideds Yes: 48% No: 52%

- In the Sunday times, economist david smith highlighted the big momentum in the yes vote

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- Over the weekend, the Westminster Unionist parties decided to launch "devo-max" in attempts to sway undecideds back

- last night the TNS Poll put Yes on 38%, up six points on the company’s previous poll in late July and early August, while No are just marginally ahead on 39%. (Don’t Knows, always relatively high in TNS BMRB’s polls, are unchanged at 23%.)

That No lead is so small that once the Don’t Knows are eliminated, Yes and No are both on 50% (as is also the case of we only look at those who say they are ‘certain or very likely’ to vote). This represents an eight point swing to Yes, and is by far and away the highest Yes vote recorded by TNS in any of their polls.

- and the Press has been really ramping it up this morning

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and for us English, if you took the Scottish MPs away in 2010, the Conservatives would have had a majority of 20

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so, its all to play for. Momentum with Yes, into 2/1, No 4/9

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome


(there, don't shout at me, nice neutral report)

Ladbrokes are still 2/1 45-50% the yes vote and i seriously think this is close to max bet material.  It's a much better bet now at 2/1 than it was at 7/2 when we originally placed itgiven the market movements recently on the outright price because of the recent polls.

no is 1.42 on betfair (70.5% likely to happen)  and we can back no to win by 50-55% which is the inverse of yes 45-50% at 2/1 (33.33%).  This means we are saying it's more likely no wins by more than 55% (70.5-33.3 = 37.2%) of the vote than 50-55% (33.3%).  Surely given the polls and how tight they are it's very hard to see how the no vote can win by much more than 55% surely.  I am pretty certain 45-50 yes vote should be close to odds on here given my explanation above.  bet365 have gone 13/8 which i still don't think is short enough.  Ladbrokes are still 2/1.

Another factor to consider how tight the vote should be around the 50% mark is the over/under 48.5% line which is the line for the yes vote with under slight fav even though the outright prices are 2/5 5/2 with only 1.5% more of the votes added.  All this combined makes the likelihood of no winning with more than 55% of the votes much much more unlikely than by 50-55% yet the odds are at total disagreement to this.

Any other maths guru's got any opinions on my analysis?

[TightEnd]

not a maths guru

an an amateur psephologist

i regard no >55% as the least likely outcome

a staking plan that has a bigger position on no 45-50% with a yes saver seems to make a lot of sense

something like

£50 45-50% 7/2 - on already
£50 45-50% 2/1 - to place
£50 Yes 2/1 to place

means

outcome: Yes less than 45%. we would lose £150 given the momentum i can't see that
outcome: 45-50% Yes. we would win £175+£100-£50=£225
outcome: Yes wins. we would breakeven £100-£50-£50=£0

[arbboy]

happy to do something along those lines.  Yes is 3.35 on bf and 45-50% at 2/1 is around a 4/7 shot coupled.  Happy to go with your idea.

[Tonibell]

Hi, there. Long time listener, first time caller &c. (Thanks for those Battista vids above btw).
Might be stating the obvious but I think it's unsound equating probabilities implied by BF numbers with polling numbers and mixing them in a calculation. Generally it's unsound because the market price is already partly derived from poll standings  and more particularly in this case because a Sunday paper was always going to commission a poll showing that the horse race was 'neck and neck'. They've done it in this case by stripping out the Don't Knows which is only like to exacerbate the indyref equivalent of the Shy Tory problem. And while every paper has an interest in talking up the horse race, one has more of an interest than others.


Just putting a couple of negatives out there, one mathematical one not. Hope this is some help. 

[TightEnd]

Hi, there. Long time listener, first time caller &c. (Thanks for those Battista vids above btw).
Might be stating the obvious but I think it's unsound equating probabilities implied by BF numbers with polling numbers and mixing them in a calculation. Generally it's unsound because the market price is already partly derived from poll standings  and more particularly in this case because a Sunday paper was always going to commission a poll showing that the horse race was 'neck and neck'. They've done it in this case by stripping out the Don't Knows which is only like to exacerbate the indyref equivalent of the Shy Tory problem. And while every paper has an interest in talking up the horse race, one has more of an interest than others.


Just putting a couple of negatives out there, one mathematical one not. Hope this is some help. 

thank you, and welcome to the thread

if you were having a bet on indyref today, what would it be?

[Chompy]

  Tonibell.

It's tradition for newbie posters to give their top five TfT tipsters.

Welcome to the fold sir.

[Tonibell]

Cheers. If you're having a bet today, you're betting the Don't Knows.

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If you think those are Shy Unionists (and reluctance to confess an unfashionable opinion increases in inverse proportion to the big mo'), you'll bet No, but if you think those are low information voters only now switching on to the contest and being convinced, you'll bet Yes.

I know the parties' private polling will be psephologically rigorous. I know that the polling companies have learned a lot since '92 but I also know that they're commercial entrprises that know how to unlearn it when a newspaper client needs a headline. So I know that there is going to be two sets of numbers floating about. I know which polls people betting into this market in a big way will use.

It's a pretty banal conclusion, but I would say that the BF market is much more likely to be close to the result than the headline polls. 

[Tonibell]

Tonibell.

It's tradition for newbie posters to give their top five TfT tipsters.

Welcome to the fold sir.

Ty. How many picks can I have for my top five?  Big shout though to the guy who put up a 400/1 shot for the Vuelta KOtM. No opinion on the race just happy he has faith we can all outlive such variance. 

[arbboy]

Hi Toni.  Welcome to TFT.

Where did you get that analysis and graph from please?  Can you post the link?  It does help to explain why ladbrokes are so keen to keep layign 45-50% at a price which is way too big and is just liability driven.  They are 'giving away' huge chunks of their EV margin from mug over 55% voters to sharps betting the wrong prices just to balance their book.