Tips for Tikay

[DMorgan]

Love the Sunday report.

+1

Good to see the word 'bullish' experiencing a renaissance too, always imagine you guys placing those Palace bets with a raised eyebrow and a wry smile

I'm on most of the Palace stuff too though so lets get 'em

[sonour]

Kansas City Chief at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sunday Sky Sports 2

DeMaryius Thomas is the Denver Broncos number one receiver, and a touchdown threat throughout any game. In a powerful offense, with the legendary Peyton Manning his quarterback, he scored 14 touchdowns last season, whilst gaining over 1400 receiving yards

In the first week of the new NFL season Thomas was disappointing by the standards expected. Against the Indianaplois Colts he had four receptions for 48 yards. This was only his fifth sub 50 yard receiving performance since December 2012

The performance was affected by two factors a) he was double covered and b) he dropped three passes. Double covering his threat is understandable for any defense but of course it opens up the field for his colleagues. The brilliant Tight End Julius Thomas scored three touchdowns instead. Playing an offense like this, the defense has to pick its poison. Manning is going to throw for a lot of yards, so who do you double cover?

This week the Broncos play divisional rivals the Kansas City Chiefs, who suffered a major injury in the first week loss to the Tennessee Titans when linebacker Derrick Johnson was lost for the season, one of two defensive starters out through injury for this game. Johnson would normally be one of those expected to cover Julius Thomas, and attention in the defensive game plan has to focus on Julius now

Demaryius Thomas' per-game averages in the last four games that followed sub-50-yard tallies are 6.25 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown.In the previous 6 games he was held under 50 yds receiving from Peyton, he came back and scored or hit 100 yards the following week.Given that Thomas has averaged 107.8 yards in his last four games against Kansas City -- including three games of more than 100 yards -- it would be no surprise if he has a similar rebound performance Sunday.  It would be fairly assured if he was single covered, too

The Broncos are 13 point favourites for the game. The line was 7 point favourites a week ago! It should be high-scoring. DeMaryius Thomas has to be a strong candidate for the first touchdown at 15/2 or 7/1.

Especially he has to be backed to go over the receiving yard spread of 85.5 yards with Ladbrokes. This is better value than picking the Broncos -13 given the way the line has moved.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-denver-broncos/total-receiving-yds-demaryius-thomas

We were limited at Ladbrokes, to £27.50

I would happily go over any line under 100 yards

Event Information:    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-09-14 21:25:00
Market:    Receiving Yards - D Thomas
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +85.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000736
Placed at:    10:29 14/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £27.50
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £27.50
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £27.50
   
   £52.50

Good news, these are available in shops.
It took a guy who really wanted to help about 20 minutes to find it. It's not under NFL, American Football, it's on call over, NFL, then player props, then the match.
The line is 90.5 now but Ladbrokes are still stand out price @ 10/11

Tighty, if you want anymore over 90.5 you can have as much of mine as you like ?

[BigAdz]

Bit of a wild one this.

At the start of the year there was a bit of talk that the best 3 year old in France was Ectot.  He put a string of good results together at 2 winning one of the better French 2 year old races in the Criterium International at the end.

Immediately after this race he was installed as the favourite for the French 2000 Guineas.



After that he had a "minor setback", so missed the French 2000 Gunieas.  The horse that finished 2nd to him that day went on and won the French 2000 Guineas.  You could probably argue it wasn't much of a race in hindsight, so that wouldn't be as meaningful as normal.  I have waited a long time for him to hit the racetrack, as the minor setback seems to have lasted all summer and he is eventually coming out to race today in the Prix Neil at 1.30.

Whilst he has been away Arc Favourites have come and gone and none of them has had a perfect campaign.  Treve has been beaten twice, Taghrooda stopped looking as awesome at York, Australia was beaten yesterday.

Our horse is favourite for the Prix Neil today, which used to have a very good record for Arc winners 10 or so years ago.  There haven't been so many recently, but that is probably just a bit of negative variance to counter the postive variance at the start of the millenium.

It is also good to get a summer break in if you want to win the Arc, and it is hard to argue that many horses have had a better break than ours.

On the flip side he has never gone beyond 8 furlongs, but that is likely down to the break he had.  He ran in mile races as a 2 year old on soft ground and didn't have an issue with staying, and he looks like he wants further in the video above.

Anyway it is just a hunch and he is top priced 25/1 with Hills (and a few others), and it beats Betfair.  We have a free bet to use?  It needs to be on before 1.30 if we are going to back it.  After the Prix Neil the price is likely to look terrible or very good.

Finally, here he looks pretty smart at 2 (2 of the horses behind won listed races subsequently and another won a group 3).




 

Not so wild now.

Pricewise had put it up a while back at 50s. Looks juicy now.

[Doobs]

Bit of a wild one this.

At the start of the year there was a bit of talk that the best 3 year old in France was Ectot.  He put a string of good results together at 2 winning one of the better French 2 year old races in the Criterium International at the end.

Immediately after this race he was installed as the favourite for the French 2000 Guineas.



After that he had a "minor setback", so missed the French 2000 Gunieas.  The horse that finished 2nd to him that day went on and won the French 2000 Guineas.  You could probably argue it wasn't much of a race in hindsight, so that wouldn't be as meaningful as normal.  I have waited a long time for him to hit the racetrack, as the minor setback seems to have lasted all summer and he is eventually coming out to race today in the Prix Neil at 1.30.

Whilst he has been away Arc Favourites have come and gone and none of them has had a perfect campaign.  Treve has been beaten twice, Taghrooda stopped looking as awesome at York, Australia was beaten yesterday.

Our horse is favourite for the Prix Neil today, which used to have a very good record for Arc winners 10 or so years ago.  There haven't been so many recently, but that is probably just a bit of negative variance to counter the postive variance at the start of the millenium.

It is also good to get a summer break in if you want to win the Arc, and it is hard to argue that many horses have had a better break than ours.

On the flip side he has never gone beyond 8 furlongs, but that is likely down to the break he had.  He ran in mile races as a 2 year old on soft ground and didn't have an issue with staying, and he looks like he wants further in the video above.

Anyway it is just a hunch and he is top priced 25/1 with Hills (and a few others), and it beats Betfair.  We have a free bet to use?  It needs to be on before 1.30 if we are going to back it.  After the Prix Neil the price is likely to look terrible or very good.

Finally, here he looks pretty smart at 2 (2 of the horses behind won listed races subsequently and another won a group 3).




 

Not so wild now.

Pricewise had put it up a while back at 50s. Looks juicy now.

Didn't know that.  Got 4.4 today on Betfair, though that isn't a good sign when I was expecting about 2/1.

[BigAdz]

Corals 7/4 Cursory Glance 3.40 Curr for next 10 mins when 11/8 elsewhere. Only £20, but all helps.

[sonour]

Kansas City Chief at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sunday Sky Sports 2

DeMaryius Thomas is the Denver Broncos number one receiver, and a touchdown threat throughout any game. In a powerful offense, with the legendary Peyton Manning his quarterback, he scored 14 touchdowns last season, whilst gaining over 1400 receiving yards

In the first week of the new NFL season Thomas was disappointing by the standards expected. Against the Indianaplois Colts he had four receptions for 48 yards. This was only his fifth sub 50 yard receiving performance since December 2012

The performance was affected by two factors a) he was double covered and b) he dropped three passes. Double covering his threat is understandable for any defense but of course it opens up the field for his colleagues. The brilliant Tight End Julius Thomas scored three touchdowns instead. Playing an offense like this, the defense has to pick its poison. Manning is going to throw for a lot of yards, so who do you double cover?

This week the Broncos play divisional rivals the Kansas City Chiefs, who suffered a major injury in the first week loss to the Tennessee Titans when linebacker Derrick Johnson was lost for the season, one of two defensive starters out through injury for this game. Johnson would normally be one of those expected to cover Julius Thomas, and attention in the defensive game plan has to focus on Julius now

Demaryius Thomas' per-game averages in the last four games that followed sub-50-yard tallies are 6.25 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown.In the previous 6 games he was held under 50 yds receiving from Peyton, he came back and scored or hit 100 yards the following week.Given that Thomas has averaged 107.8 yards in his last four games against Kansas City -- including three games of more than 100 yards -- it would be no surprise if he has a similar rebound performance Sunday.  It would be fairly assured if he was single covered, too

The Broncos are 13 point favourites for the game. The line was 7 point favourites a week ago! It should be high-scoring. DeMaryius Thomas has to be a strong candidate for the first touchdown at 15/2 or 7/1.

Especially he has to be backed to go over the receiving yard spread of 85.5 yards with Ladbrokes. This is better value than picking the Broncos -13 given the way the line has moved.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-denver-broncos/total-receiving-yds-demaryius-thomas

We were limited at Ladbrokes, to £27.50

I would happily go over any line under 100 yards

Event Information:    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-09-14 21:25:00
Market:    Receiving Yards - D Thomas
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +85.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000736
Placed at:    10:29 14/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £27.50
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £27.50
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £27.50
   
   £52.50

Good news, these are available in shops.
It took a guy who really wanted to help about 20 minutes to find it. It's not under NFL, American Football, it's on call over, NFL, then player props, then the match.
The line is 90.5 now but Ladbrokes are still stand out price @ 10/11

Tighty, if you want anymore over 90.5 you can have as much of mine as you like ?

I just said to the shop manager, that bet of mine has moved the line, it's 95.5 now.
He said well it won't move again because no other ****** will find it !

[pleno1]

Hey

Very sure Peter Beardsley next Newcastle manager is a very good bET.

Ashley likes to build from within.

He doesn't like to spend money on compensation packages.

He knows the fans need to get back on side as Peole are very very angry at the moment.

Beardsley has developed young talent like rolando aarons, Armstrong etc and will be familiar with them.

He's obviously a legend in the club.

Perhaps most importantly he Always tells the fans how great ashley is.

Crucially, Pardew will get fired and I think Beardsley will be out in charge as temporary manager. Our next fixtures are


Hull (h)
Crystal palace (a)
Stoke (a)
Swansea (a)
Leicester (h)

There's a good chance he does well in these games and gets the job.

I'd imagine he should be in the top three favourites for the job but he is currently 50/1.

[simonnatur]

3.40 Curragh

This race is interesting because favourites have quite a poor record, with only 2 obliging in the last 7 years (although 2009 may have been a freakish result due to ground described as desperate) We have a ten runner race in which I think we can readily discount the 5 at the bottom of the market that are currently 14-1 + as being unlikely to be good enough.Trends back this up as the biggest price winner barring the 2009 race was a 10-1 shot.
The other trend worth noting for me was that the vast majority of winners had previously won or run well over 7f.
Of the remainder I thought Osaila was more likely to cause an upset on softer ground and was probably flattered and not value for the distance she beat
Muraaqaba at Ascot, also not tried over 7f and 50 day break probably not ideal.
Lucida narrowly beaten over C&D last time out and winning time not likely to be good enough here, also upset in stalls on first run.
Found  The sire Galileo has a good record in this race, won first time out over 8f in a slowly run race. The form of this has not worked out great, with the 2nd beaten 2.5 lengths next time out in a race over C&D run much faster despite slower ground. Again the 4th that day was only 3rd next time out in a 7f maiden. May be overbet due to O'Brien factor
Cursory Glance  Albany is best form on offer, though not yet tried 7f and I get the sense she has won flat out having got a trouble free run.
I think Malabar 8/1 may be the one to back each way. I felt she may have had quite a bit in hand when winning impressively last time out over 7f at Goodwood.
With this sort of race there is always the chance of something improving dramatically but I'm happy to recommend £15 or £20 e/w depending how gambly you're feeling.

[Chompy]

Guess it was Pardew's decision to kick Marcus Maddison out? Should be sacked for that alone.

[TightEnd]

Corals 7/4 Cursory Glance 3.40 Curr for next 10 mins when 11/8 elsewhere. Only £20, but all helps.

sorry i missed this, was battling with a recalcitrant Leg of Lamb

[vegaslover]

Kansas City Chief at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sunday Sky Sports 2

DeMaryius Thomas is the Denver Broncos number one receiver, and a touchdown threat throughout any game. In a powerful offense, with the legendary Peyton Manning his quarterback, he scored 14 touchdowns last season, whilst gaining over 1400 receiving yards

In the first week of the new NFL season Thomas was disappointing by the standards expected. Against the Indianaplois Colts he had four receptions for 48 yards. This was only his fifth sub 50 yard receiving performance since December 2012

The performance was affected by two factors a) he was double covered and b) he dropped three passes. Double covering his threat is understandable for any defense but of course it opens up the field for his colleagues. The brilliant Tight End Julius Thomas scored three touchdowns instead. Playing an offense like this, the defense has to pick its poison. Manning is going to throw for a lot of yards, so who do you double cover?

This week the Broncos play divisional rivals the Kansas City Chiefs, who suffered a major injury in the first week loss to the Tennessee Titans when linebacker Derrick Johnson was lost for the season, one of two defensive starters out through injury for this game. Johnson would normally be one of those expected to cover Julius Thomas, and attention in the defensive game plan has to focus on Julius now

Demaryius Thomas' per-game averages in the last four games that followed sub-50-yard tallies are 6.25 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown.In the previous 6 games he was held under 50 yds receiving from Peyton, he came back and scored or hit 100 yards the following week.Given that Thomas has averaged 107.8 yards in his last four games against Kansas City -- including three games of more than 100 yards -- it would be no surprise if he has a similar rebound performance Sunday.  It would be fairly assured if he was single covered, too

The Broncos are 13 point favourites for the game. The line was 7 point favourites a week ago! It should be high-scoring. DeMaryius Thomas has to be a strong candidate for the first touchdown at 15/2 or 7/1.

Especially he has to be backed to go over the receiving yard spread of 85.5 yards with Ladbrokes. This is better value than picking the Broncos -13 given the way the line has moved.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-denver-broncos/total-receiving-yds-demaryius-thomas

We were limited at Ladbrokes, to £27.50

I would happily go over any line under 100 yards

Event Information:    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-09-14 21:25:00
Market:    Receiving Yards - D Thomas
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +85.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000736
Placed at:    10:29 14/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £27.50
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £27.50
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £27.50
   
   £52.50

Good news, these are available in shops.
It took a guy who really wanted to help about 20 minutes to find it. It's not under NFL, American Football, it's on call over, NFL, then player props, then the match.
The line is 90.5 now but Ladbrokes are still stand out price @ 10/11

Tighty, if you want anymore over 90.5 you can have as much of mine as you like ?

You 2 have killed the line..
TBH I couldn't find it on the saddies website, had to go through the oddschecker link

[TightEnd]

Hey

Very sure Peter Beardsley next Newcastle manager is a very good bET.

Ashley likes to build from within.

He doesn't like to spend money on compensation packages.

He knows the fans need to get back on side as Peole are very very angry at the moment.

Beardsley has developed young talent like rolando aarons, Armstrong etc and will be familiar with them.

He's obviously a legend in the club.

Perhaps most importantly he Always tells the fans how great ashley is.

Crucially, Pardew will get fired and I think Beardsley will be out in charge as temporary manager. Our next fixtures are


Hull (h)
Crystal palace (a)
Stoke (a)
Swansea (a)
Leicester (h)

There's a good chance he does well in these games and gets the job.

I'd imagine he should be in the top three favourites for the job but he is currently 50/1.

the top three in the market are Moyes,Pulis, Lennon

I would imagine these will be the top three in most Premier league positions that might become vacant, and any of them could fit Newcastle just fine?

but the factors you mention must hold weight, even allowing for the faxct there isn't a vacancy yet so the fixtures for any caretaker might not be those you list. The person hiring is a one-off though

so for the sport...

 Next Permanent Manager Peter Beardsley (Outright - Specials) Odds: 50/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  510.00


 Next Permanent Manager Peter Beardsley (Outright - Specials) Odds: 50/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  510.00 

[TightEnd]

3.40 Curragh

This race is interesting because favourites have quite a poor record, with only 2 obliging in the last 7 years (although 2009 may have been a freakish result due to ground described as desperate) We have a ten runner race in which I think we can readily discount the 5 at the bottom of the market that are currently 14-1 + as being unlikely to be good enough.Trends back this up as the biggest price winner barring the 2009 race was a 10-1 shot.
The other trend worth noting for me was that the vast majority of winners had previously won or run well over 7f.
Of the remainder I thought Osaila was more likely to cause an upset on softer ground and was probably flattered and not value for the distance she beat
Muraaqaba at Ascot, also not tried over 7f and 50 day break probably not ideal.
Lucida narrowly beaten over C&D last time out and winning time not likely to be good enough here, also upset in stalls on first run.
Found  The sire Galileo has a good record in this race, won first time out over 8f in a slowly run race. The form of this has not worked out great, with the 2nd beaten 2.5 lengths next time out in a race over C&D run much faster despite slower ground. Again the 4th that day was only 3rd next time out in a 7f maiden. May be overbet due to O'Brien factor
Cursory Glance  Albany is best form on offer, though not yet tried 7f and I get the sense she has won flat out having got a trouble free run.
I think Malabar 8/1 may be the one to back each way. I felt she may have had quite a bit in hand when winning impressively last time out over 7f at Goodwood.
With this sort of race there is always the chance of something improving dramatically but I'm happy to recommend £15 or £20 e/w depending how gambly you're feeling.

for this one I am only getting 1/4 the odds in one place, don'tbeteverydayoftheyear, at a bad price so had to go 1/5 at 8/1

Curragh 15:40
Outright Betting
EW 1/5 1,2,3    Malabar    8/1    
Total stake   £ 30.00
Estimated return   £ 174.00
Full stake   £ 30.00
Full estimated return   £ 174.00

[TightEnd]

I also fear we may have seen the last of Treve

didn't move at all well

[pleno1]

Guess it was Pardew's decision to kick Marcus Maddison out? Should be sacked for that alone.

yeh hes so so so good, ridiculous decision lol.

How's he been doing? Watched him a lot at Gateshead and we was the best player in the league imo.