Tips for Tikay

[Shrimper1]

It is that time again, fifth time lucky we hope!

Recommend Jack Payne 1st team scorer for Southend at 11-1 with Scuy for those that can (if not first match scorer at 14-1 general) and anytime goalscorer at 11-2 (Billys)

Not sure how the loltraders at scuy (copyright Arbboy)  can go 11-1 first southend scorer and only 14-1 first scorer. I can understand them making mistake in over pricing Jack to score; i mean it is difficult to price every league match, but how can they make a mistake like this. Morecambe are 9-4 to score first so if Jack is 14-1 to score  first he should be max 9.5-1 first Southend scoreer. (15/1.4.2 =10.56 = 9.5-1.) Have they made an amendemnt in one market but not the derivative ones?

Exactly the same reasoning as in all the previous posts, and although he is shorter than in previous games, the value is just as good as this is offset by the fact that Southend are big favourites at home to Morecambe and have around 63% chance of scoring the first goal and a higher goal expectancy than previous games.

Admitedly he had a poor game last week, and will be interesting to see how he fares now that he has become more of a known quantity and will have to cope with teams making plans for him.

All that being said i cannot have him bigger than 13-2 first Southend, 10-1 first and 7-2 anytime.

[horseplayer]

Impressed with Blackpool

Pretty sure the manager there is good and if he doesnt get the players he needs will do a good job for someone

[McGlashan]

Great spot McG!!

Thanks

Thanks. I was hoping for other firms would follow the 13/10 lead so it'd be easier to get a decent bet on.

How do you think Ricky Burns will do on Saturday fighting at light welterweight?

Everything I've seen from Burns recently suggests he is done. I'll be happy to take him on in his next test. He probably wins an unimpressive decision but I'm not overy keen on the 5/6 given his opponent hasn't fought anyone of note.

As a rule of thumb I like opposing the KO win when a fighter is moving up in weight. With no footage of his opponent online there's a lot of guesswork to be done in the betting, still there's a nagging voice in my head saying 5/4 on a Burns KO within 10 rounds is far too short.   

[Chompy]

It is that time again, fifth time lucky we hope!

Recommend Jack Payne 1st team scorer for Southend at 11-1 with Scuy for those that can (if not first match scorer at 14-1 general) and anytime goalscorer at 11-2 (Billys)

Not sure how the loltraders at scuy (copyright Arbboy)  can go 11-1 first southend scorer and only 14-1 first scorer. I can understand them making mistake in over pricing Jack to score; i mean it is difficult to price every league match, but how can they make a mistake like this. Morecambe are 9-4 to score first so if Jack is 14-1 to score  first he should be max 9.5-1 first Southend scoreer. (15/1.4.2 =10.56 = 9.5-1.) Have they made an amendemnt in one market but not the derivative ones?

Exactly the same reasoning as in all the previous posts, and although he is shorter than in previous games, the value is just as good as this is offset by the fact that Southend are big favourites at home to Morecambe and have around 63% chance of scoring the first goal and a higher goal expectancy than previous games.

Admitedly he had a poor game last week, and will be interesting to see how he fares now that he has become more of a known quantity and will have to cope with teams making plans for him.

All that being said i cannot have him bigger than 13-2 first Southend, 10-1 first and 7-2 anytime.

Scuy are now 5-1 for Payne to be first team scorer and have cut him to 10-1 to score first outright.

BMU still go 19-2 about him being first Southend scorer though.

See Phil Orange is early favourite for the Bolton job? Would your lot be devved to see him go?

[Doobs]

Hills, beteveryday and a couple of Irish jokers who only put prices up to wind up the English have gone quarter first 4 in the Arc.  Hills are top priced Flintshire and b365 are top on Dolniya.  Both have nice low draws and are a touch below top class, but at big prices and 4 places they must be a touch of value. 

Ectot still crushes obviously.  Seems to have the best draw of those at the top of the betting and sat next to his pacemaker.  Can see him getting dropped in near the back though, so maybe the draw isn't as hood for him as it could be for others.

[TightEnd]

Hills, beteveryday and a couple of Irish jokers who only put prices up to wind up the English have gone quarter first 4 in the Arc.  Hills are top priced Flintshire and b365 are top on Dolniya.  Both have nice low draws and are a touch below top class, but at big prices and 4 places they must be a touch of value. 

Ectot still crushes obviously.  Seems to have the best draw of those at the top of the betting and sat next to his pacemaker.  Can see him getting dropped in near the back though, so maybe the draw isn't as hood for him as it could be for others.

Neil wrote up the Arc last night, which i got to when i woke up

Interesting, with this post in mind

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/44


I Have done the following

04 Oct 2014 - 5th Oct 2014 - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - NRMB Rule 4 May Apply - Outright

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Flintshire @ 25/1  EW @ 1/4 1-4

Stake : £40.00 (£20.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
665.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001104/F



15:30 Long (FRA) 5th Oct BOG

    40/1
    £260.00
    Dolniya
    Win
    £ 5 EW

Total Stake: £10.00

restricted, bfsb

I can only do 75p e/w with Bet364 and PP is a no go

haven't got anywhere else to go at 1/4 1,2,3,4 even at 33-1

[TightEnd]

It is that time again, fifth time lucky we hope!

Recommend Jack Payne 1st team scorer for Southend at 11-1 with Scuy for those that can (if not first match scorer at 14-1 general) and anytime goalscorer at 11-2 (Billys)

Not sure how the loltraders at scuy (copyright Arbboy)  can go 11-1 first southend scorer and only 14-1 first scorer. I can understand them making mistake in over pricing Jack to score; i mean it is difficult to price every league match, but how can they make a mistake like this. Morecambe are 9-4 to score first so if Jack is 14-1 to score  first he should be max 9.5-1 first Southend scoreer. (15/1.4.2 =10.56 = 9.5-1.) Have they made an amendemnt in one market but not the derivative ones?

Exactly the same reasoning as in all the previous posts, and although he is shorter than in previous games, the value is just as good as this is offset by the fact that Southend are big favourites at home to Morecambe and have around 63% chance of scoring the first goal and a higher goal expectancy than previous games.

Admitedly he had a poor game last week, and will be interesting to see how he fares now that he has become more of a known quantity and will have to cope with teams making plans for him.

All that being said i cannot have him bigger than 13-2 first Southend, 10-1 first and 7-2 anytime.

Scuy are now 5-1 for Payne to be first team scorer and have cut him to 10-1 to score first outright.

BMU still go 19-2 about him being first Southend scorer though.

See Phil Orange is early favourite for the Bolton job? Would your lot be devved to see him go?

04 Oct 2014 - Southend v Morecambe - Anytime Goalscorer
Tip It

Jack Payne @ 11/2

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
65.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001105/

 Southend United v Morecambe Jack Payne (1st Southend United Goalscorer - 90 Mins) Odds: 19/2 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  105.00

[Nico29]

Have you tried betfair sportsbook for the 40's tighty?

They are going first 4 too.

Just saw who you'd bet with. Ouch.

[TightEnd]

Have you tried betfair sportsbook for the 40's tighty?

They are going first 4 too.

yes i tried for £20 e/w and was restricted to a fiver each-way

the BFSB restrictions for tikay are worse across a range of sports in the last fortnight, which is a shame

[Nico29]

I don't bet with them myself in promo place races like these.

Found out to my cost that they'd removed my bog without telling me and also any promo's whatsoever.

Think it's really unfair that they offer promos like first 4 when normally top 3, but 'only' if you aren't on a certain list.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £20.00

Outstanding Bets £4361.02

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £20 yesterday, with Murray beating Cilic one and four in China to hand us a loser

Click to see full-size image.

Last night was game 2 of the ALDS in Anaheim. Two rookie pitchers faced each other, Yordano Ventura and Matt Shoemaker

Click to see full-size image.

The Royals took the lead in the second innings and the Angels equalised in the 6th. Both pitchers, backed up by strong defense, were virtually unhittable

After regulation innings the teams were tied. Once more, extra innings

Through to the 11th inning and The Royals Eric Hosmer hit a two run homer to take the Royals 3-1 up.

Click to see full-size image.

They followed up as Alex Gordon walks, steals second, moves to third on an error and scores on a single by SalvadorPerez.

Leading 4-1, closer Greg Holland once again saw the game out

Huge underdogs the Kansas City Royals are 2-0 up with three games to play, and now head back to the mid-west for the third game with their ace pitcher James Shields on the mound

The Royals are the first team in Major League history to win three consecutive extra-inning postseason games.

Click to see full-size image.

I know I go on, but find it tremendously exciting to see something that is energising the US sportsworld that we are on at 18-1. I tried to think of a British equivalent. Something like Watford going for the Premier League title in April. Meanwhile the Orioles are 2-0 up on the Tigers in their ALDS.

The Royals have a very unfashionable strategy. Good pitching, defense and speed....people to steal bases, get on base and "small ball"...rather than big home runs

Once more the highlight videos are fun to watch http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2014_10_03_kcamlb_anamlb_1&mode=box#gid=2014_10_03_kcamlb_anamlb_1&mode=video

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Nico Rosberg beats Lewis Hamilton to pole for the Japanese Grand Prix, with the pair six tenths ahead of the nearest competitior and well over a second clear of most of the field. Could be a big pole position if the bad weather coems for the race



Big news overnight. Vettel to Ferrari, Kvyat to Red Bull, Alonso probably to McLaren and Button probably to sportscars as the driver merry-go-round really kicked off for 2015



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A Ryan Hughes double at Warwick ties the jockeys championship again at 146 wins each

http://www.thepja.co.uk/championships/flat-jockeys-championship/

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In advance of tomorrow

Click to see full-size image.

[Bad Beat]

Doobs and I must have some sort of telepathy going. Bit spooky. I'd have happily taken 16/1 and 33/1 those two.

 By the way, Ascot watered the other day, even though I make it October and it wasn't even good/firm. Yesterday it rode on the soft side of good according to the midget crooks and today it's pissing it down in the West country and heading across the country. Redcar is also good and just good to firm in places because they watered too. Now they are expecting rain.

 So all week we've had shit racing with barely 8 runners in any races at all and now the best day of the week has arrived and the racing will be run and false ground.

 I guess the 4.50 will have a few non-runners, hopefully not our two.

 This is a conspiracy between the BHA and the big bookmakers to boost the levy and I think it's disgraceful.

[horseplayer]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2779640/Julio-Arca-The-former-Premier-League-star-pays-3-50-subs-turn-Willow-Pond-FC-second-division-pub-side.html

[Doobs]

Will lay you a tenner e/w on Dolniya at 40/1

[tikay]

Doobs and I must have some sort of telepathy going. Bit spooky. I'd have happily taken 16/1 and 33/1 those two.

 By the way, Ascot watered the other day, even though I make it October and it wasn't even good/firm. Yesterday it rode on the soft side of good according to the midget crooks and today it's pissing it down in the West country and heading across the country. Redcar is also good and just good to firm in places because they watered too. Now they are expecting rain.

 So all week we've had shit racing with barely 8 runners in any races at all and now the best day of the week has arrived and the racing will be run and false ground.

 I guess the 4.50 will have a few non-runners, hopefully not our two.

 This is a conspiracy between the BHA and the big bookmakers to boost the levy and I think it's disgraceful.

I see Lord Grumpy has awoken in a good mood again today.

Incidentally, in case anyone still wants to get on, it is the 3.50, not 4.50, I think.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ascot/15:50/winner

Good luck us, & thanks Neil.