Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

http://watch.na.lolesports.com/en_US

Starting now.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £195.05

Outstanding Bets £4173.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £68 yesterday

One winner, £15, Daniil Kvyat to qualify in the top 10 at Sochi, which he impressively did in 5th. He was 0.743secs quicker than Vergne. Previous biggest gap 0.483secs. Kvyat is on the Ricciardo/Bottas list of future champions

Click to see full-size image.

losers

£30 Emily Middlemas not a wild card in Fix-factor

£33 under 2.5 goals in Lincoln-Telford

£20 Wrexham losing at home to Grimsby

Unfortunately, as remarked by conference watchers this year, the conference is very unpredictable, with a lack of good teams and most teams capable of beating any other


ongoing positions

football

league one

Peterborough United won 4-1 away at Crawley and are 2nd, 5 points behind leaders Bristol City. Our various Peterborough bets are £300 top 6, £20 e/w the title and £220 on a match bet with Doncaster. Anyone would think we had a Peterborough fan around the place.  Doncaster did not play yesterday, and Peterborough are nine points ahead of them currently having played two games more

Click to see full-size image.

Conor Washington scored for Peterborough, but the runaway leader in the league one goalscoring charts is Eoin Doyle of Chesterfield, a 150-1 ante post shot, currently six clear



league 2

Newport County beat York City 3-1 (with some help, see picture below) and are now three points off the play-offs. After a slow start they have lost one game in the last nine and are going in the right direction

Click to see full-size image.

Conference

Dover Unathletic beat Chester 2-0 to climb to 17th, two points off the drop we require

Ryman

Guernsey visited Hastings, were 1-1 for a long time, fell behind, chased an equaliser and lost 4-1


Hearts won 1-0 at Alloa with a late winner and are now 9 points clear of Rangers at the top, having played a game more

Click to see full-size image.

F1

Our various bets today on Bottas, safety car (you might have noticed we need a safety car today, every time the ignition on it fires up we know about it    ) look to have chances. Magnussen's gearbox failed about ten minutes into FP3. I'll shut up next time

Today could be the day that Mercedes win the constructors, a bet we've had for nine months



X-Factor

In so far as I can tell, the best acts last night are considered to be a singer called Lauren and an Italian bloke in a Christmas jumper called Andrea who Mel B, pictured below, proclaimed in her best Bradford mellifluous tones "you're the winner". No news yet if this means we can just show repeats of Escape to Victory on ITV primetime on Saturday nights through to Christmas



Strictly

Hello sailor. The best performance yet from Thom Evans last night, as he climbed from mediocrity to mediocrity

Click to see full-size image.

Baseball (you thought you'd escaped)

Game 2 of the ALCS in Baltimore. The Royals secured hits on their first three at bats, and went 2-0 up. Baltimore got one back, the Royals went 3-1 up and then the Orioles pulled back to 3-3. After 5 innings the sides were tied at 4-4, and the excellent bullpen pitchers of both sides went to work. It remained 4-4 through to the start of the final innings until, for the Royals Escobar and Cain hit runs to take the Royals 6-4 up.

Click to see full-size image.

Enter, once again, closer Greg Holland who proceeded to strike out the final three Baltimore hitters to secure another win for the Royals, who went 2-0 up and now the series goes back to Kansas Cty for three games starting Monday

Click to see full-size image.

Tremendously exciting.

The run of the Royals is a very rare occurrence. They are only the 4th team to win its 1st 6 games in a single postseason, joining the 2007 Rockies, 1976 Reds, 1970 Orioles.

A fun Survation Poll overnight

Survation/Mail on Sunday: CON 31% (NC), LAB 31% (-4), LD 7% (-1), UKIP 25% (+6) OTHERS 9% (+1)

Prof John Curtice says that if the nation voted on pattern seen in Survation/MoS poll UKIP could win 128 MPs

Click to see full-size image.

[Peter-27]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?   Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

[exstream]

Going to be 0-1 down.

[Doobs]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?   Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

It is all a bit theoretical as Tighty is going to be limited to £1.24, but should we be betting more on way too high than on thin value? 

[Omm]

http://watch.na.lolesports.com/en_US

Starting now.

Can't believe it, our team look like a bunch of nerds vs the cool kids. 1-0 down.

[TightEnd]

Big result for Fred today in the Hearts game. Alloa can be a tricky place to go to as they have that rubber type pitch.

If Fred has the testicular fortitude I wouldn't mind us having an extra few quid on Hearts @10/11 outright. My suggestion pre season was £100 e/w which was a bit much for Tighty at this early stage I am happy that we are free rolling the place part of the bet.

So I 'm suggesting £55 outright  @'10/11

I think you were probably looking at a stale price, or one i needed to get to it much earlier than i have done this morning, 8/11 best

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/scottish/championship/winner

what is the expectation for Rangers from here? Hearts nine points clear, Rangers one game in hand.

 

[exstream]

http://watch.na.lolesports.com/en_US

Starting now.

Can't believe it, our team look like a bunch of nerds vs the cool kids. 1-0 down.

nerds in computer game will prevail!

[TightEnd]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?  Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

Bet365 bets are difficult. i could get a sum total of just over a pound on the second and third bets.

Not sure "thin value" is really what we are looking for either.

the first bet i could get on at 2-1

 Bet Receipt
Single Selections
Race Markets Adrian Sutil (Group B - Race) Odds: 2/1 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  45.00

[Chompy]

Conor Washington actually scored twice yesterday - he got an obvious touch on Burgess's header - and should get the second shipped his way on review.

Eoin Doyle is already odds-on for the League One boot and the quarter 1-2-3-4 has vanished. Our best chance will be for some panicky Championship side to pick him up in January.

Poshies have got all their players back now, aside from Vassell and Mendez, and were ridic good yesterday, albeit the Creepies were crap. The goals are about to start flying in.

Barnsley fans...are your lot liable to give up and get a good whooping next weekend? You're pretty much drawing dead tbh, catching us at completely the wrong time.

X Factor is beyond a joke now. Only three of them are remotely half-decent and they're at the top of the market.

Overload were garbage but so were Stereo Dicks and 21st century Bucks Fizz. As long as our boys don't get the boot tonight, anything could happen in the groups section.

Sideshow Fleur was ordinary imo.

http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor

[Peter-27]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?   Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

It is all a bit theoretical as Tighty is going to be limited to £1.24, but should we be betting more on way too high than on thin value?  

This is something I get asked a lot, and I guess I have a difference in opinion to other regular gamblers. I take both value and probability into consideration when determining my stake, rather than just value - just a preference to be honest. It can be argued that this isn't as profitable long term, but I've yet to be convinced of the validity of this argument.

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?  Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

Bet365 bets are difficult. i could get a sum total of just over a pound on the second and third bets.

Not sure "thin value" is really what we are looking for either.

the first bet i could get on at 2-1

 Bet Receipt
Single Selections
Race Markets Adrian Sutil (Group B - Race) Odds: 2/1 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  45.00

That surprises me! Sure, more value is better - but value is still value? 

[exstream]

Going to be 0-2 down....hopefully ban rumble next

or not, 1-1 i guess

[Doobs]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?   Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

It is all a bit theoretical as Tighty is going to be limited to £1.24, but should we be betting more on way too high than on thin value?  

This is something I get asked a lot, and I guess I have a difference in opinion to other regular gamblers. I take both value and probability into consideration when determining my stake, rather than just value - just a preference to be honest. It can be argued that this isn't as profitable long term, but I've yet to be convinced of the validity of this argument.

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?  Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

Bet365 bets are difficult. i could get a sum total of just over a pound on the second and third bets.

Not sure "thin value" is really what we are looking for either.

the first bet i could get on at 2-1

 Bet Receipt
Single Selections
Race Markets Adrian Sutil (Group B - Race) Odds: 2/1 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  45.00

That surprises me! Sure, more value is better - but value is still value? 

I definitely think you should take the volatility of a bet into account. You should definitely bet more on even money chances than 2/1 chances if your edge is the same.  But here you have acknowledged that one bet us way better than the other yet bet smaller.  I'd say you should be betting at least as much on bet 3 as bet 2. 

If you want to investigate this further, Google Kelly calculator betting or similar.  I am not suggesting that you start betting in these amounts (Tikay would never sleep) but it will give you a feel for respective bet sizes.  So if you think your 8/11 chance should really be 4/6, then you should bet less than you would on an 8/1 chance that should be 5/1. 

I think you need to be very sure on your probabilities before you start reading too much in to it though.

[DropTheHammer]

They've gone out to 9/1 for Bet 3 now   

[BigAdz]

I noted in the usual(ly)   excellent Tighty write up, that UKIP are expected to only get 3 seats at the next election.

I understand the standard "its only a protest by election result" inevitable replies, but I think we are drastically under estimating the general consensus, and ill feeling about immigration.

I know we have a number of wet liberals/say the right thing merchants on here( ), but I suspect people are thinking, it doesn't matter who gets in next time, they will do their best to **** it up, be it economically, health wise, school wise, etc etc. People are understanding that Immigration also has a massive knock on detrimental effect on all of those major factors now too.

With this in mind, I think there is a seaswell of folk out there who will look at Immigration as their main factor when deciding who to vote for, especially in coastal areas most hit by arriving folk.

I was shocked to see that Billy have 5 or more as the bench at 5/4. Looks mighty big to me, and I would expect well in excess of that. I was hoping to get some decent prices on 20/30 plus.

Im not a politician, or spend hours looking at Mori polls etc, but thought this worthy of consideration for the big lump.

Politics aside, thoughts please?

Based on Tighty 128 seat notage, a bump for this. Or are we already on something like this, that I have missed, or am I getting the "just like being at home" treatment, and basically just being ignored?

NB, just another 16-1 winner on racing thread.