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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13413314 times)
tikay
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« Reply #89100 on: October 18, 2014, 05:38:30 PM »

Roberto Bautista-Agut, our dual nationality Spaniard, is through to tomorrow's final. He beat Gulbis, the stroppy Latvian, in straight sets 4 & 4.

So Mr T it's freerolllllllllll time.

Gold Top from The Milkman.

Thanks Hector.
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« Reply #89101 on: October 18, 2014, 05:45:50 PM »

Great stuff Hector I got £7.50 EW on Smiley
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« Reply #89102 on: October 18, 2014, 06:51:29 PM »

Thanks Mr End,

2-1 win for Mainz today vs Augsburg and they currently lie in third place in the Bundesliga but it is all very tight. Top 4 rivals Dortmund and Leverkusen both dropped points today. Let's hope we get a sweat on!


 
Been reading this thread with interest for a little while but this is my first contribution. I live in Berlin and I follow German football especially Bundesliga.2 (their version of the Championship). I'm not a big sportsbetter but I am an occasional punter.

Bwin's market for top 4 in Bundesliga doesn't look right to me.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/bundesliga/top-4-finish

Here are the stats from last season.
3. Schalke  points 64
4. Leverkusen 61
5. Wolfsburg 60
6. M'gladbach 55
7. Mainz 54

This season Gladbach & Hoffenheim have 13 points, Leverkusen 12, Mainz and Wolfsburg 11 and Schalke 8

The odds for a top 4 finish on Bwin are as follows:

Schalke evens
Leverkusen 7/20
Wolfsburg 7/4
M'Gladbach evens
Hoffenheim 9/2
Mainz 40/1

These odds don't make sense to me. Mainz changed coaches and many viewed them as overachievers last season and they were knocked out of the Europa preliminaries (which is actually more of a plus than anything for this bet). But they are unbeaten with 2 wins and 5 draws and have much of the same team. They have beaten Dortmund and last week drew away at Gladbach. They have a record of picking unheralded coaches and punching above their weight.

Schalke and Leverkusen have been top four the past two seasons but it has been close both years and both are very inconsistent. You would expect Dortmund to be there but they have had a shocker so far. Wolfsburg and Gladbach are solid teams and Hoffenheim have had a good start. It as a very lopsided division with Bayern so strong, but take them out of the equation and I don't think it is the case that there is a huge gulf between top 6 and the rest, certainly not as big as these Bwin odds suggest. Take out the last two seasons and lots of other sides have made the top 4. Gladbach, Hannover, Hertha, Stuttgart, Werder Bremen and somehow Wolfsburg even won it.

For context, Mainz are best priced at 12s elsewhere. Any Bundesliga fans, what do you think of my thoughts on this market? Am I missing something? Obviously Mainz are outsiders but this much of an outsider? Personally I don't think so and I'm having some money on. There could also be some value with some of the other long odds teams as bwin seen to be heavily favouring the 'Big Six' but I have no idea which of them could put a run together.

hello Mr Roo

first bet too i think

can't resist a bit of 40-1

10/11/2014 9:24 A
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« Reply #89103 on: October 18, 2014, 07:05:21 PM »

Expecting a goalfest at London Road this weekend v Barnsley.

Two young teams, both with plenty of attacking options. Boyle's 3/4 about both teams to score is deece, but prefer the 11-2 about over 4.5 goals with Shut'Em Down Vic.

£30 at that price ta.
A pathological nit, I only heard what I wanted to hear. Wink Apols.
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« Reply #89104 on: October 18, 2014, 07:09:47 PM »

Nice to see Watford so high in the league this season, *****.
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« Reply #89105 on: October 18, 2014, 07:14:59 PM »

Cilic loses the first set to Kukushkin in the other Kremlin semi.
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« Reply #89106 on: October 18, 2014, 08:02:37 PM »

Cilic loses the first set to Kukushkin in the other Kremlin semi.

Who would we prefer in the Final?
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« Reply #89107 on: October 18, 2014, 08:30:50 PM »

Cilic loses the first set to Kukushkin in the other Kremlin semi.

Who would we prefer in the Final?

'im wot lorst.

Sorry watching Steptoe...
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« Reply #89108 on: October 18, 2014, 08:33:04 PM »

If Thom is 25/1 on Monday, I'll pickle me walnuts
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« Reply #89109 on: October 18, 2014, 08:55:33 PM »

How is this 13/8 after a week?

I'm waiting for Matt Lucas to pop up from the side...
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« Reply #89110 on: October 18, 2014, 09:40:21 PM »

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #89111 on: October 18, 2014, 09:45:29 PM »

Who gets married on the tube?
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« Reply #89112 on: October 18, 2014, 09:51:13 PM »

did fred get a bet on pelle for top goal scorer?

if not i would recommend a bet at 20/1 with 1/4 for top 4

think only bookie fred can get on with offering that is laddies

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« Reply #89113 on: October 18, 2014, 10:42:48 PM »

Just back after a meal out. Not one thing on this page makes any sense.
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
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« Reply #89114 on: October 18, 2014, 10:56:50 PM »

Did we do Bolton to stay up at 4/7 last week and throw a £5 at the 250/1 for promotion?

now 2/5 and 125/1 best. 
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