Tips for Tikay

[Omm]

Good to see the Breeders Cup chatter by horsey, Adzy, Methuselah, Bobby, Ice Cream Marky & various others, thank you.

I think Fred should have an old style Breeders Cup weekend, & collectively punish those poor bookies.

How about you all give us your "Breeders Cup Weekend Nap & NB", & we can all have a fun sweat whilst watching some grand racing?

Go on, who'll be the first to blink?

Incidentally, Horse Racing remains our 2nd most profitable sport, only behind football, with, remarkably, Baseball now in 3rd place, but we don't see too many horse racing bets here these days.

Come on, lets go for it. Be great to see some ideas from the other racing gurus, too, Doobs, Lord Grumpy & BE included, Team Maths, Team Non-Maths, & from the Horse Racing Thread, such as Simonnataur, Trigg, Ommy, as well as the King of Flouncers, Chompy & everyone or anyone else.

I await with baited breath - will it be a deafening silence, or are we gonna do this, together?

Go on, you know you want to.

Click to see full-size image.

Great battle cry and just what Fred needs, well done Tikay, can't help with the Horses but may have a dog for tonight at Rommers, waiting for some prices and will post here if it's value.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £435.21

Outstanding Bets £4486.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A loss of £15 yesterday, Djokovic beating Monfils 6-3 7-6 at the ATP Paris Masters

ongoing positions

Nishikori through to the quarters in Paris beating Tsonga 6-4 in the third. He now plays Ferrer

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In the Copa Del Rey, Sevilla beat Sabadell 6-1 to advance, one of two each way bets we have in the half without Barcelona/Real/Atletico

Click to see full-size image.

In the NFL a quiet night for our rookies as the Saints beat the Panthers 28-10. Cooks 3 receptions for 38 yards and Benjamin (really hamstrung by the injury hit Carolina OL preventing Cam Newton from getting much done on offense at all) 2 receptions for 19 yards. The game went under but Saints points and Graham yards went over

With no team in the NFC South with a winning record there is no truth yet in reports that the division has asked to secede from the NFL

Click to see full-size image.

Basketball. Opening night disappointment for Lebron and the Cavaliers on his return to Cleveland, losing 95-90 to the Knicks

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Divisional bet the Dallas Mavs beat the Jazz 120-102 to get off the mark for the season

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[BigAdz]

Mr Blue Sky have what looks a very nice boost on Arsenal/Chelsea and Everton all to win at 4-1.

May have to get on Tinder for those extra wives.

No wonder Adzy always looks tired.

Click to see full-size image.

Thankfully, I don't need the money that much Tony. What this thread has drummed in is the need to max on some of these offers, even if Arsenal do get beat.......

[tikay]

Arazi was undoubtedly very impressive but my favourite BC performance albeit in defeat was Dayjur.

Drawn in the car-park and had the race sown up for all money only to get beaten because it jumped a shadow 50 yards from the winning line.

One of the greatest races for me and just happened to be a Breeders cup race.

55 year old Lester Piggott back from a 5 year retirement that included a stretch inside for tax evasion wins the 1990 Breeders Cup mile with a 'wait as long as possible before delivering' ride on a 6 furlong horse 10 days after returning to the saddle. (after missing the break)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1ThhBVc0bA

...and LESTER WINS IT. Would you absolutely believe it?

Brilliant video, first thing I've watched with my tea this morning and it's given me that feel good factor already.

I suppose the mind plays tricks because we know the result, but watching that video, you just think he was always going to win that.

Doubt anyone on horse racing has given me more pleasure (& occasional pain, when he overdid it) than a Piggott waiting race.

He once won on John Cherry at Chester (Chester Vase perhaps?) in the most breathtaking fashion, dropped out early, nearly tailed off, then just cruised past the whole field, hard-held, then gave that sly look over his shoulder to the other toiling jockeys as he eased up short of the line.

He won the Washington DC International 3 times, but the yankee press (gotta love Armchair Jockeys) hated him, as they did not like his waiting style, they prefer to see horses ridden from the front, so Piggott upset them all.

Anyway, he wins the DC one year on Sir Ivor, & the next year on another horse (forgot it'd name), & goes for the press interview afterewards, which was a bit hostile, as he once again "rode it all wrong". One hapless hack, trying to trap Lester so he could criticise his waiting tactics,  asked him "when did you realise you could win this race, Mr Piggott, was it inside the last 100 yards?"

"About 9 months ago" he mumbled.

[tikay]

Good to see the Breeders Cup chatter by horsey, Adzy, Methuselah, Bobby, Ice Cream Marky & various others, thank you.

I think Fred should have an old style Breeders Cup weekend, & collectively punish those poor bookies.

How about you all give us your "Breeders Cup Weekend Nap & NB", & we can all have a fun sweat whilst watching some grand racing?

Go on, who'll be the first to blink?

Incidentally, Horse Racing remains our 2nd most profitable sport, only behind football, with, remarkably, Baseball now in 3rd place, but we don't see too many horse racing bets here these days.

Come on, lets go for it. Be great to see some ideas from the other racing gurus, too, Doobs, Lord Grumpy & BE included, Team Maths, Team Non-Maths, & from the Horse Racing Thread, such as Simonnataur, Trigg, Ommy, as well as the King of Flouncers, Chompy & everyone or anyone else.

I await with baited breath - will it be a deafening silence, or are we gonna do this, together?

Go on, you know you want to.

Click to see full-size image.

Great battle cry and just what Fred needs, well done Tikay, can't help with the Horses but may have a dog for tonight at Rommers, waiting for some prices and will post here if it's value.

Well we can't force peeps to stick stuff up, nor should we, but we have a wealth of punting talent here, so fingers crossed we can all pull together.

Look forward to your Romford Dog Coup tonight to get us warmed up for the Breeders Cup.

[TightEnd]

restricted to £25 with Ladbrokes

Event Information:    21:25 Santa Anita
2014-10-31 21:25:00
Market:    Race winner
Selection:    Commemorative @ 10/1
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000766
Placed at:    09:06 31/10/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £25.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £25.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £25.00
      £275.00

William hill, as ladbrokes restricted to £10

31 Oct 2014 - 10:50 Santa Anita - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!

Partisan Politics @ 20/1

Stake : £40.00
Estimated Returns : £
840.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001120/F
Total Stake : £40.00

[horseplayer]

Ladbrokes are supposed to be laying anyone on the Breeders this year!

Except fred it seems

[DungBeetle]

Spent ages watching fkin' horse races on youtube tonight

What a ride from Piggott there!


While I'm mooching around on Youtube, here is a video of this year's winner




Recommended by Doobs at 33/1, and now best priced 15/2

<3 Fleur.  Before the live shows, she was mooching round the bottom of the polls and Facebook likes, now flying high with the two favorites.  http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor/201005-poll-x-factor-2014-finalists-whos-your-favourite-week-4.html.  Seems to be popular in the love show threads on digital spy every week and has a pretty big fan thread there.

If there is such a thing as momentum, she has it.  Hopefully we can get a run to the final, and a Tikay will have to tune in.  

Cheers for this one Doobs - I picked up a buy at 3 at £15 on the Sporting Index 50 index, now trading 11-14.

I'm going to let it run I think.

[horseplayer]

Good article on Chompys favourite player

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/football-league/peterborough-striker-marcus-maddison-finds-team-ethic-after-academy-failure-9829276.html

[TightEnd]

"There is little doubt that Aaron Donald is special. From the outset the Rams rookie was different to most defensive tackles – because he is vastly smaller than average at the position – but he has always made up for that with devastating quickness and fantastic hands."

for anyone who wants a really detailed look at our NFL Defensive rookie of the year bet, and former winning NFL draft bet

"There are some impressive performances over half a season from this crop of rookies. Khalil Mack in Oakland and Anthony Barr in Minnesota have made some big plays and had some impressive games, but there might not be a more impressive looking rookie than Aaron Donald right now."

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/10/29/analysis-notebook-week-8-4/

[Chompy]

Good article on Chompys favourite player

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/football-league/peterborough-striker-marcus-maddison-finds-team-ethic-after-academy-failure-9829276.html

Pardew can have him back for £10 millioth

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/assist-leader

Rondo 11/4 most assists ladbrokes

Another nba max bet (each way this time) which is even stronger than the Toronto division bet imo.  I don't mind how much fred has on this (appreciate we are tying up a lot of money ante post) but i have backed this very large ew.  I make Rondo a decent fav in this market which, barring injury, is a 3 or 4 horse race realistically based on the previous 3 or 4 years assists stats shown below.  The front two in the market should be the clear front two in the market but for me ladbrokes have them the wrong way round.  On top of this 'rick' it's an incredibly good ew betting market.  It would be like bookies offering the EPL outright market at 1/4 1234 imo maths wise at the start of the season.

I assume this is because Rondo was injured for most of last season and didn't register on the assist leaderboard.  It just stinks of bad odds compiling by ladbrokes and the 1/5 123 ew terms are quite insane in a market like this.  In an injury free season Rondo would seriously be about 1/20 to top 3 in this market.  He is a big time pass first (which is an assist) rather than shoot first point guard.  Scoring is Rondo's biggest weakness in his game which makes him such an effective assist man.  Rondo is approaching his peak years in his career so there is little reason to think he will at least hold his previous stats, if not improve on them.  Secondly, this is a 'contract year ' for Rondo as he is in the last year of his current 5 year deal and his next contract will be the largest of his career so this season he is absolutely going to be focused on putting up huge numbers to secure that contract esp after missing a season through injury last year.  

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2014
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2013
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2012
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2011

Both Chris Paul and Rondo (the two market leaders) have played 1 game each so far with Rondo having 12 assists in his game and Paul 7 in his.  The clear 3rd fav is John Wall who has played 2 games so far and averaged 11.5 assists across his 2 games and is a live 3rd fav.  Barring these 3 i find it very hard to consider any other player making a serious run at winning this category.

[TightEnd]

Charlie Hall Chase

Wetherby tomorrow

11/10 Silviniaco Conti
7/2 Taquin Du Seuil
 6 Menorah
10 The Giant Bolster, Medermit
14 Double Ross
18 Wayward Prince
66 Ballypatrick

some books pay 3 places e/w

its early season, some will be fitter than others and (this may or may not be correct, but i've read it somewhere i can't remember where which is helpful) Nicholls is in a bit of a transitional phase, talking having a tough season etc

can we find something to beat the favourite here?

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/assist-leader

Rondo 11/4 most assists ladbrokes

Another nba max bet (each way this time) which is even stronger than the Toronto division bet imo.  I don't mind how much fred has on this (appreciate we are tying up a lot of money ante post) but i have backed this very large ew.  I make Rondo a decent fav in this market which, barring injury, is a 3 or 4 horse race realistically based on the previous 3 or 4 years assists stats shown below.  The front two in the market should be the clear front two in the market but for me ladbrokes have them the wrong way round.  On top of this 'rick' it's an incredibly good ew betting market.  It would be like bookies offering the EPL outright market at 1/4 1234 imo maths wise at the start of the season.

I assume this is because Rondo was injured for most of last season and didn't register on the assist leaderboard.  It just stinks of bad odds compiling by ladbrokes and the 1/5 123 ew terms are quite insane in a market like this.  In an injury free season Rondo would seriously be about 1/20 to top 3 in this market.  He is a big time pass first (which is an assist) rather than shoot first point guard.  Scoring is Rondo's biggest weakness in his game which makes him such an effective assist man.  Rondo is approaching his peak years in his career so there is little reason to think he will at least hold his previous stats, if not improve on them.  Secondly, this is a 'contract year ' for Rondo as he is in the last year of his current 5 year deal and his next contract will be the largest of his career so this season he is absolutely going to be focused on putting up huge numbers to secure that contract esp after missing a season through injury last year. 

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2014
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2013
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2012
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2011

Both Chris Paul and Rondo (the two market leaders) have played 1 game each so far with Rondo having 12 assists in his game and Paul 7 in his.  The clear 3rd fav is John Wall who has played 2 games so far and averaged 11.5 assists across his 2 games and is a live 3 fav.  Barring these 3 i find it very hard to consider any other player making a serious run at winning this category.

i know its pathetic, as i would have done three figures each way, but we were restricted as below

Event Information:    2014/15 NBA Regular Season Most Assists Per Game
American
2014-11-05 00:05:00
Market:    Award Winner
Selection:    Rajon Rondo @ 5/2
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000767
Placed at:    10:46 31/10/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £20.00
Number of lines:    2
Stake:    £40.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £40.00
   
   
   £100.00

[Tonji]

Question for Arb, do you factor in injury rates on season bets? I'd imagine basketball has a higher incidence than many sports.