Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Ok. This is a bonkers one and Fred'll only get tuppence ha'penny on, but I'll stick it up anyway. 

Judy Murray is the worst dancer in Strictly. She's also the most improved of those still in. Seriously. She is. She started so far behind the others left that it's hard to appreciate just how much she has closed the gap. I suspect she goes this week, though. 

One of the main reasons I think she'll go is because I expect her to score well by her standard, which means there won't be as many "let's vote to keep the rubbish one in" and "I feel sorry for her with those nasty comments" types. Historically, the bad one that sticks around longer than expected goes out on a good week. The judges probably manipulate that a little by remembering being kind is a good way to get the public to vote for other people.

Judy is doing a Viennese Waltz this week. She has struggled when dancing on her own and when trying to remember anything technically detailed. This week, she's doing a dance almost exclusively done in hold and which only has three basic moves (spinning clockwise, spinning anticlockwise and a flicky spin in the middle - natural turn, reverse turn and Fleckerl, if you want to know the technical names). She'll only be doing the first two of those as well. There will be bits and bobs either side and there's a classic strictly fun moment at the end, but the point is she'll be more comfortable. 

Her training footage has actually been surprisingly good. Nothing sensational, but a marked improvement. She has nice big steps and clean feet. She doesn't have any posture to speak of and no sway, but it's far from a car crash. 

Last week, for her panto paso doble, she was given 3/5/5/5 so 18 points. She will be over 19 tonight (can get 4/7 on that with Billy Eels if you like that sort of thing). I think she's at least a point better per head tonight. 

The red blokes have a market on her exact score tonight. Two stand out.

22 is 6/1 (4/6/6/6, for example)
23 is 8/1 (4/6/7/6 or 5/6/6/6)

I'd not want 24 at 7/1 because that's asking Craig to go over five or two people to give sevens. That's asking a bit much. 

Those two are worth a tenner a pop. 

[TightEnd]

Thank you once again, but restricted to £2 each

tikay's reputation as a dancing judge precedes him

[Chompy]

Top SCD posts from Tal, vwp sir.

I don't watch it but, reading the above post, it feels like the 4/7 with Hills should be hammered pretty hard on here.

[Tal]

Thank you once again, but restricted to £2 each

tikay's reputation as a dancing judge precedes him

Tremendous. I reckon he's rung the bookies and restricted himself so we can't have any more bets

[TightEnd]

Wm H also have 6/4 Judy Murray next elimination

reading the posts above, that sounds like another cracking price doesn't it?

at 22-23 she's going to be bottom score, but perhaps by less than previous weeks

i know there is a big patriotic Scottish vote but is she going to vote that much stronger to get above two others with only nine couples left

thoughts, Tal?

and would you like us to have a blast on o19 at 4/7?

[TightEnd]

the point being the minute she's in the bottom two she's gone

[Tal]

I really can't see her getting 19 unless she stops or falls over. 4/7 isn't massively appetizing, but I think that's probably just because of how short it is. If she we were 10/11 for over 21.5, I'd recommend £20. Maybe someone can help me put that into a bet size for 4/7 over 19.5?

As for next to go at 6/4, it simply can't be a terrible bet, unless we know she'll finish top two with the public vote. As long as we're happy she isn't miles ahead with the 'phone votes, it's a good week for a bet on her to go IMO.

As we can't get a bet on anywhere else, I don't mind either. I know that's indecisive, but hope it helps.

[TightEnd]

ok. well i have done both.

"I really can't see her getting 19 unless she stops or falls over"

that would be entertaining anyway



15 Nov 2014 - Strictly Come Dancing 2014 - 7th Elimination - Next Elimination
Tip It

Judy Murray @ 6/4

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
50.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001130/F
Single

15 Nov 2014 - Strictly Come Dancing 2014 - Judy Murray Total Score (15th Nov) - Weekly Specials
Tip It

Over 19.5 Points @ 4/7

Stake : £70.00
Estimated Returns : £
110.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001131/F

[TightEnd]

Luton 1 Tranmere 0

FT

Good shout this morning Darren, thanks

[redarmi]

If you haven't had a bet in PP you prob should do.. 18runners, 5 places pretty sweet...

Doesn't really matter what you go for i dont think.. I like Caid De Berlais @ 14/1

indeed

N1,  anyone saw what happened with ours, fell way back then came again, did it hit a fence?  

waiting for replay, had written it off but seemed to come back once the jumping finished

Was ready to post hope they pay first 17.

Think that is very wrong switching 5 places to 4 without any non runners.  Feels at least a bit sly.

They did that?  That is awful.  I tend to think firms need to cover themselves a bit more in terms of reducing place terms when there are non runners on these races where they pay extra places as they leave themselves wide open but if there are no non runners it is just awful imo

[arbboy]

If you haven't had a bet in PP you prob should do.. 18runners, 5 places pretty sweet...

Doesn't really matter what you go for i dont think.. I like Caid De Berlais @ 14/1

indeed

N1,  anyone saw what happened with ours, fell way back then came again, did it hit a fence?  

waiting for replay, had written it off but seemed to come back once the jumping finished

Was ready to post hope they pay first 17.

Think that is very wrong switching 5 places to 4 without any non runners.  Feels at least a bit sly.

They did that?  That is awful.  I tend to think firms need to cover themselves a bit more in terms of reducing place terms when there are non runners on these races where they pay extra places as they leave themselves wide open but if there are no non runners it is just awful imo

Did it change when the opening show came through from the track or before that?  Either way it's very under handed and these type of things seem to be becoming more and more frequent.

[TightEnd]

It changed late

on oddschecker 10 minutes prior to race was 5 places

go to WH, didn't even check the terms, place bet

bet receipt says 4 places

Sneaky

[Tal]

More NFL and fewer England internationals at Wembley, please. This is turgid.

[icles test]

More NFL and fewer England internationals at Wembley, please. This is turgid.

took both the front two for first gs as prices seemed wrong, got to admit was disappointed it was an OG so Id feel the need to keep watching. Awful

[Doobs]

ok. well i have done both.

"I really can't see her getting 19 unless she stops or falls over"

that would be entertaining anyway



15 Nov 2014 - Strictly Come Dancing 2014 - 7th Elimination - Next Elimination
Tip It

Judy Murray @ 6/4

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
50.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001130/F
Single

15 Nov 2014 - Strictly Come Dancing 2014 - Judy Murray Total Score (15th Nov) - Weekly Specials
Tip It

Over 19.5 Points @ 4/7

Stake : £70.00
Estimated Returns : £
110.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001131/F

Sneaks through the £70 bet while England are on.  18 last week?  bit of a sweat here Tighty.  I assumed they were throwing her under the bus from now on.  Think the 6/4 must be ok if they are though?