Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Tighty,

Am on catch up here after a few days away.

I note that various people kindly placed bets on behalf of Fred whilst I was away, & so I need to sort out who I owe money to, & how much.

Doobs

(He has paid me £17.50 over the weekend so I think we are square again).

Mark Porter

T Mar


To save me trawling though 200+ Posts (looks like we had a fun weekend!), do I owe Mark Porter & T Mar any money, & if so, how much, please?

Mark owes you £7.50

TMar, you owe him £20

Have paid this today by Bank TX.

Thanks Tom, much appreciated.

[tikay]

I would suggest Mark holds onto this, it may be useful if he helps us again in the future, & we'll settle up at the month's end maybe?

Shipped back Tikay, just to keep things easy and I will likely forget otherwise.

Happy to get us on if needs be, especially with Guernsey floundering as they are. They have been so disappointing this season after all the bullish reports I got pre-season. Unfortunately the whole 'being on an island' thing has hindered the home side more than the opposition. That and the squad just not being where I thought it would be.

Thanks Mark, confirmed safely received.

Don't be worrying about the Guernsey bet, it's the sort of bet we all love, but sometimes things don't pan out as planned. Love bets like this, & if we lose a few, so be it.

[tikay]

Tighty,

Am on catch up here after a few days away.

I note that various people kindly placed bets on behalf of Fred whilst I was away, & so I need to sort out who I owe money to, & how much.

Doobs

(He has paid me £17.50 over the weekend so I think we are square again).

Mark Porter

T Mar


To save me trawling though 200+ Posts (looks like we had a fun weekend!), do I owe Mark Porter & T Mar any money, & if so, how much, please?

All sorted.

[tikay]

Just to confirm, Fred has received a £25 Refund for the Gemma Collins bet.

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

Can someone try and explain to me why I can back cleverly at odds against in this fight at the weekend. Why isn't he a clear fav? What am I missing? Bellow is just a fat trash talking jobber who never backs up his talk in the ring. He has so much negative energy as well which must be really eating him up mentally in the build up.  he also lost the previous fight so why is he not a clear underdog in this match? Someone stop me from having a max bEt on a sport I don't know that much about.

I posted this on boxing thread and wouldn't mind people's views here as well with a view to it being a Fred bet as well.

[Tal]

Not convinced a max bet on a Matchroom fight is ever a good idea. Clev should logically be a good favourite, mind, IMO. Is he carrying an injury?

[Matt.NFFC.]

Isn't the fight on in Liverpool?  Bellew's home turf?

You know how it is with judges in boxing.  You have to beat your opponent and 3 judges to get a result away from home, factor that in to the price.

[arbboy]

Isn't the fight on in Liverpool?  Bellew's home turf?

You know how it is with judges in boxing.  You have to beat your opponent and 3 judges to get a result away from home, factor that in to the price.

You are correct.  Their first fight was also in Liverpool as well which Cleverly won which was at light heavyweight. This fight being at Cruiserweight surely favours Bellow slightly which i am assuming is the main reason for the current prices along with home arena advantage.  Both are managed by Hearn as well which surely limits the potential for a 'Hearn decision'.  If anything going forward if Hearn wanted to push one fighter surely it would be Cleverly over Bellow for longer term revenue streams?

[horseplayer]

Tighty any views on Bishop Sankey under 58.5 rushing yards.Looking on the titans site he might be on kick returns and also not on 3rd downs.Get the feeling he won't be getting enough work to rush 50 odd yards.

Well done

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £439.29

Outstanding Bets £3986.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

No bets completed yesterday

I have added back the Gemma Collins refund

ongoing positions

Over 100 moves after it started, game 7 of the world chess championship was drawn, and Carlsen is a point ahead with 5 games to go. Anand white today, and white in three of the last five

After playing for six hours, they trot into a press conference and sit side by side and analyse the game. Here, there are psychological points to be scored too

Vishy: "The last hour was a bit superfluous"

Magnus replies to the next question: "When he went for this he 'signed up for suffering"

Quite entertaining, in a cerebral way. A bit like watching University Challenge, you know its all a bit above you but sooner or later you'll get a barb from Paxman, these press conferences are the same

Click to see full-size image.

Moving on

Pittsburgh beat the Titans 27-24 last night, having been 11 points down. On a night when Roethlisberger was frequently off the mark the running back Le'Veon Bell essentially won the game for the Steelers with over 200 yards rushing. They got the ball 3 points up with seven minutes left to play and ran it consistently over 28 plays to win the game

Click to see full-size image.

The Steelers, who we have at 14-1 to win the AFC went to 7-4, joint top of the division, into a play off spot with six games to go

Meanwhile this is a fun read if you are on the Packers, as we are http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pete-prisco/24817087/monday-musings-rodgers-packers-look-frightfully-good-falcons-on-rise

Meanwhile, because the topic is germane to many an NFL bettor, a look at the returns made from backing overs in NFL primetime games. this year has been painful for unders bettors



Monday's NBA action with relevance to us

Dallas Mavericks beat the Charlotte Somethings (hornets? bobcats?) 107-80

Denver Nuggets beat the Cleveland Cavs 106-97

San Antonio Spurs beat the Philadelphia 76ers 100-75

Chicago Bulls beat the LA Clippers 105-89

Click to see full-size image.

Last night's Yougov poll

CON 33% (+2)
LAB 32% (-1)
UKIP 15% (-3)
GRN -8% (+3)
LD 7% (-)
GRN ahead of LD, at their highest ever polling share   

all looking good for LD bears.

[claypole]

Apologies if anyone has posted as I haven't read fred this week.

Cannot believe the new Band Aid single is as big as 10/11 to be Christmas number one. There is general apathy towards the X factor, the video gets premiered tommorow on said show, every one direction fan in the world will buy, plus all of us 40 something's with general nostalgia towards the original and at a time when there's lots of shit in the world Ebola is pretty high on people's minds. I appreciate charity records are a bit old school, however this is the daddy of charity records. Have no doubt will shorten after tommorws video premiere and being all over news this evening.

Think 10/11 is massive value. Reccomend £110 at 10/11 and get out of half I predict at 4/7 ish in next seven days

Not sure what you've done with this Tighty - and havent checked liquidity in Betfair altho obv has shortened to near 4/7. I'll leave to you, however in spirit of Fred did say £110 to lay some back as was certain price would move.  Obviously a good value bet now, however so much dependant on CD sales and also I note some slightly negative PR today and on News last night altho not sure how much that impacts the masses.

[TightEnd]

I haven't done anything with it yet

shall we watch for now, see what sales are when it goes to number one this week? it could go shorter?

[Bazzaboy]

Can someone try and explain to me why I can back cleverly at odds against in this fight at the weekend. Why isn't he a clear fav? What am I missing? Bellow is just a fat trash talking jobber who never backs up his talk in the ring. He has so much negative energy as well which must be really eating him up mentally in the build up.  he also lost the previous fight so why is he not a clear underdog in this match? Someone stop me from having a max bEt on a sport I don't know that much about.

I posted this on boxing thread and wouldn't mind people's views here as well with a view to it being a Fred bet as well.

IMO the reasons it is priced as a flip are, the move to Cruiserweight is believed to suit Bellew more than Cleverly and his edge in power will be more apparent now that he is not weight drained (he used to fight at heavyweight in the amateurs and was seen as a big puncher) The first fight was a lot closer than most expected and Bellew has has the better results since then. There is also a view that Cleverly may be damaged goods after his beating from Kovalev.

I don't think the move to cruiser will have the effect many believe as Clev has filled out and came in close to the 200lb limit last time and didn't look to be carrying any timber. Whilst the first fight was closer than expected only really Bellew thinks he won the fight. Kovalev is in a different league and there is no shame in losing to him, and it's not like Bellew didn't get handed his arse by Stevenson.

Bellew has the edge in power but that's it. If Cleverly does have a weakness it's that he is too easy to hit and hopefully he has been working hard on that since the Kovalev fight. That said he does have a good chin even if it didn't stand up to Kovalev's bombs.

I think the 2/1 Cleverly on points is a really good bet. I've also had some Cleverly UD at 7/2. I think he outboxes Bellew without having the power to stop him.

[Doobs]

Tighty can we try and get a tenner on Only The Young for X factor at 33/1.  BMU probably best for us.  I have been trying for better on betfair and failed.  Spoils are 40/1 and laid me a tenner max last night so can't do anything for thread there.

Last 3 weeks they have seemed a lot better and really are polling very well at the mo (certainly the last 3 weeks).  They have been in line with the top 4 (probably better than Lauren).  Maybe they can't win, but fairly sure 33/1 is too big.  If people can get on with Spoils then I think they really should.

[tikay]

College Basketball Started at the weekend I had 3+ Games on the go most of the weekend looking at the usual suspects and I saw a player who could just be the next great big man.
Jahlil Okafor is an 18yr old 6ft11 19 stone freshman at Duke University and it is no surprise that he is a good player as he was rated the best high schooler in america last year.
in his first game he scored 17 points on 7/8 shooting he scored a face up jumper off the glass, a turnaround, a spin move and dunk, and finished a fast break with a dunk. he found the open man when double teamed. offensively he reminds me of Tim Duncan which is about as high a compliment as I can pay.

the rest of his team all looked pretty good and they all played very well together Duke are 10-1 in two places  b365 & laddies
 
so is there value? I think so, all the pre-preseason hype has been about Kentucky and their freshman class and how they have possibly 10 future pro's and how they might be shuttling 5 man units in and out etc etc.
Duke have 4 freshman who were ranked in the top 25 Okafor and the point guard tyus jones have been playing together since the age of about 9 and it shows. Duke has probably the best coach in the world in mike krzyzewski (greg poppovich a possible exception) Kentucky have john calipari who might be the best salesman in the world!.
I would recommend £20 at 10/1 Duke Blue Devils to winn NCAA basketball champs
I will as ever do updates if required.

cheers Moon.

Thanks Moony.

10/1 still available in a few spots for Blue Devils.


http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/ncaab/ncaa-championship/winner

Whether Fred can get on is another matter, but I'll leave it to Tighty to have a look.