Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Tighty can we try and get a tenner on Only The Young for X factor at 33/1.  BMU probably best for us.  I have been trying for better on betfair and failed.  Spoils are 40/1 and laid me a tenner max last night so can't do anything for thread there.

Last 3 weeks they have seemed a lot better and really are polling very well at the mo (certainly the last 3 weeks).  They have been in line with the top 4 (probably better than Lauren).  Maybe they can't win, but fairly sure 33/1 is too big.  If people can get on with Spoils then I think they really should.

    Bet Reference: 673044386
    Single
            Only the Young 33/1
        Outright Winner
    Total Stake: (10.00 x 1) 10.00
    Possible Payout (inc. stake) 340.00


Sportingbet

[TightEnd]

College Basketball Started at the weekend I had 3+ Games on the go most of the weekend looking at the usual suspects and I saw a player who could just be the next great big man.
Jahlil Okafor is an 18yr old 6ft11 19 stone freshman at Duke University and it is no surprise that he is a good player as he was rated the best high schooler in america last year.
in his first game he scored 17 points on 7/8 shooting he scored a face up jumper off the glass, a turnaround, a spin move and dunk, and finished a fast break with a dunk. he found the open man when double teamed. offensively he reminds me of Tim Duncan which is about as high a compliment as I can pay.

the rest of his team all looked pretty good and they all played very well together Duke are 10-1 in two places  b365 & laddies
 
so is there value? I think so, all the pre-preseason hype has been about Kentucky and their freshman class and how they have possibly 10 future pro's and how they might be shuttling 5 man units in and out etc etc.
Duke have 4 freshman who were ranked in the top 25 Okafor and the point guard tyus jones have been playing together since the age of about 9 and it shows. Duke has probably the best coach in the world in mike krzyzewski (greg poppovich a possible exception) Kentucky have john calipari who might be the best salesman in the world!.
I would recommend £20 at 10/1 Duke Blue Devils to winn NCAA basketball champs
I will as ever do updates if required.

cheers Moon.

Thanks Moony.

10/1 still available in a few spots for Blue Devils.


http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/ncaab/ncaa-championship/winner

Whether Fred can get on is another matter, but I'll leave it to Tighty to have a look.

£5 ladbrokes 10-1

£5 Bet365 10-1

£10 bwin at 10 (9-1)

restricted on the first two, so ended up with 19/2 overall

[TightEnd]

Can someone try and explain to me why I can back cleverly at odds against in this fight at the weekend. Why isn't he a clear fav? What am I missing? Bellow is just a fat trash talking jobber who never backs up his talk in the ring. He has so much negative energy as well which must be really eating him up mentally in the build up.  he also lost the previous fight so why is he not a clear underdog in this match? Someone stop me from having a max bEt on a sport I don't know that much about.

I posted this on boxing thread and wouldn't mind people's views here as well with a view to it being a Fred bet as well.

IMO the reasons it is priced as a flip are, the move to Cruiserweight is believed to suit Bellew more than Cleverly and his edge in power will be more apparent now that he is not weight drained (he used to fight at heavyweight in the amateurs and was seen as a big puncher) The first fight was a lot closer than most expected and Bellew has has the better results since then. There is also a view that Cleverly may be damaged goods after his beating from Kovalev.

I don't think the move to cruiser will have the effect many believe as Clev has filled out and came in close to the 200lb limit last time and didn't look to be carrying any timber. Whilst the first fight was closer than expected only really Bellew thinks he won the fight. Kovalev is in a different league and there is no shame in losing to him, and it's not like Bellew didn't get handed his arse by Stevenson.

Bellew has the edge in power but that's it. If Cleverly does have a weakness it's that he is too easy to hit and hopefully he has been working hard on that since the Kovalev fight. That said he does have a good chin even if it didn't stand up to Kovalev's bombs.

I think the 2/1 Cleverly on points is a really good bet. I've also had some Cleverly UD at 7/2. I think he outboxes Bellew without having the power to stop him.

so boxing people which do we want?

the win at just over evens http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/nathan-cleverly-v-tony-bellew/winner

points at 2/1 http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/nathan-cleverly-v-tony-bellew/method-of-victory

[arbboy]

Can someone try and explain to me why I can back cleverly at odds against in this fight at the weekend. Why isn't he a clear fav? What am I missing? Bellow is just a fat trash talking jobber who never backs up his talk in the ring. He has so much negative energy as well which must be really eating him up mentally in the build up.  he also lost the previous fight so why is he not a clear underdog in this match? Someone stop me from having a max bEt on a sport I don't know that much about.

I posted this on boxing thread and wouldn't mind people's views here as well with a view to it being a Fred bet as well.

IMO the reasons it is priced as a flip are, the move to Cruiserweight is believed to suit Bellew more than Cleverly and his edge in power will be more apparent now that he is not weight drained (he used to fight at heavyweight in the amateurs and was seen as a big puncher) The first fight was a lot closer than most expected and Bellew has has the better results since then. There is also a view that Cleverly may be damaged goods after his beating from Kovalev.

I don't think the move to cruiser will have the effect many believe as Clev has filled out and came in close to the 200lb limit last time and didn't look to be carrying any timber. Whilst the first fight was closer than expected only really Bellew thinks he won the fight. Kovalev is in a different league and there is no shame in losing to him, and it's not like Bellew didn't get handed his arse by Stevenson.

Bellew has the edge in power but that's it. If Cleverly does have a weakness it's that he is too easy to hit and hopefully he has been working hard on that since the Kovalev fight. That said he does have a good chin even if it didn't stand up to Kovalev's bombs.

I think the 2/1 Cleverly on points is a really good bet. I've also had some Cleverly UD at 7/2. I think he outboxes Bellew without having the power to stop him.

cheers Bazza

[horseplayer]

http://en.valenciacf.com/ver/39065/ian-cathro-profile-interview-with-the-times.html

[horseplayer]

Click to see full-size image.

[Marky147]

Tighty can we try and get a tenner on Only The Young for X factor at 33/1.  BMU probably best for us.  I have been trying for better on betfair and failed.  Spoils are 40/1 and laid me a tenner max last night so can't do anything for thread there.

Last 3 weeks they have seemed a lot better and really are polling very well at the mo (certainly the last 3 weeks).  They have been in line with the top 4 (probably better than Lauren).  Maybe they can't win, but fairly sure 33/1 is too big.  If people can get on with Spoils then I think they really should.

Slipping up the inside unnoticed...



This is actually pretty decent, compared to most of the stuff they have been given by the leprechaun!

[claypole]

I haven't done anything with it yet

shall we watch for now, see what sales are when it goes to number one this week? it could go shorter?

Seems sensible - seems to be hardening towards 4/7 most firms

[sonour]

Ladbrokes are BOG in all shops between 12 and 1pm

[geoff123]

AFL 2015

I have been looking at next season's Aussie Rules. I know its a little early but there may be an opportunity here. It is very tough for an outside team to make the final 8, but Port Adelaide have shown its possible with the right setup, and came very close to making the Grand Final last season. The top 6 teams will be odds on and will definately be in the final 8, leaving two places to find. Usual suspects will be Adelaide Crows, Richmond, West Coast and Essendon, but the team that catches my eye as young, improving, good coaching team are the Greater Western Sydney Giants. They have recently gained a couple of experienced players, but also have 3 of the first 7 selections in next months AFL Draft. A speculative bet then would be 20 on GWS Giants to make the last 8 in the AFL. Should be able to get 8.0 or better

[Doobs]

Tighty can we try and get a tenner on Only The Young for X factor at 33/1.  BMU probably best for us.  I have been trying for better on betfair and failed.  Spoils are 40/1 and laid me a tenner max last night so can't do anything for thread there.

Last 3 weeks they have seemed a lot better and really are polling very well at the mo (certainly the last 3 weeks).  They have been in line with the top 4 (probably better than Lauren).  Maybe they can't win, but fairly sure 33/1 is too big.  If people can get on with Spoils then I think they really should.

Slipping up the inside unnoticed...



This is actually pretty decent, compared to most of the stuff they have been given by the leprechaun!

Think they have done ok the last 3 weeks or so.  I get the impression they are now doing songs they are happy with rather than the ones Louis thinks are best.  I think their happiness shows in their performances too.  They can obviously throw in a bad one, and they probably desreved to go the other week; their Saturday performance was poor, and their attempt to be saved was absolutely dire.  Hopefully that is behind them, and all the judges seem to be on script now.

Talking of dire, I thought Fleur's performance at the weekend was a dogs dinner too.  Must have sounded like a good idea before hand, and she clearly tried hard, but that couldn't disguise that mess.   The judges seemed happily oblivious to it, and she got another good ramping.  I must have seen something different as she was topping the Saturday poll on digital spy the last time I looked.  Only The Young were top 3 too, but more importantly the Andrea juggernaut seems to have stalled and he no longer has a big poll lead and he was behind everyone but Jay and Stevi on itunes this week (our two 2nd and 3rd).  Lauren is falling away too, think she was 2nd favourite last time I posted, but is at least double the price she was then.  If I had an account with Winner or Titan that Cheryl to lose her acts first seems much nearer a flip to me than the 5/2 on offer, though that probably isn't out of line with current prices.

This is the latest poll on Digital Spy which is your favoourite overall

Andrea Faustini 40 (14.81%)
Ben Haenow 39 (14.44%)
Fleur East 55 (20.37%)
Lauren Platt 21 (7.78%)
Only the Young 90 (33.33%)
Stereo Kicks 9 (3.33%)
Stevi Richie 16 (5.93%)

Obviously not many voters, but it has to be good news for the Only The Young bet, and don't think it is bad for Fleur either.  Tellymix has everyone bar Stevi about level, but despite having more voters, I am not sure there are many more uniques!  I wouldn't be rushing to back anyone else right now (Andrea still looks short to me), and think we are in really good shape.  I certianly wouldn't be laying Only The Young anywhere near 33/1.

Must be a very quiet betting day, Only The Young the 4th most popular on oddschecker, and was as high as 3rd earlier when I looked.   

[engy]

Tighty can we try and get a tenner on Only The Young for X factor at 33/1.  BMU probably best for us.  I have been trying for better on betfair and failed.  Spoils are 40/1 and laid me a tenner max last night so can't do anything for thread there.

Last 3 weeks they have seemed a lot better and really are polling very well at the mo (certainly the last 3 weeks).  They have been in line with the top 4 (probably better than Lauren).  Maybe they can't win, but fairly sure 33/1 is too big.  If people can get on with Spoils then I think they really should.

Slipping up the inside unnoticed...

im on at 85/1  80/1 and 50/1 on betfair



This is actually pretty decent, compared to most of the stuff they have been given by the leprechaun!

Think they have done ok the last 3 weeks or so.  I get the impression they are now doing songs they are happy with rather than the ones Louis thinks are best.  I think their happiness shows in their performances too.  They can obviously throw in a bad one, and they probably desreved to go the other week; their Saturday performance was poor, and their attempt to be saved was absolutely dire.  Hopefully that is behind them, and all the judges seem to be on script now.

Talking of dire, I thought Fleur's performance at the weekend was a dogs dinner too.  Must have sounded like a good idea before hand, and she clearly tried hard, but that couldn't disguise that mess.   The judges seemed happily oblivious to it, and she got another good ramping.  I must have seen something different as she was topping the Saturday poll on digital spy the last time I looked.  Only The Young were top 3 too, but more importantly the Andrea juggernaut seems to have stalled and he no longer has a big poll lead and he was behind everyone but Jay and Stevi on itunes this week (our two 2nd and 3rd).  Lauren is falling away too, think she was 2nd favourite last time I posted, but is at least double the price she was then.  If I had an account with Winner or Titan that Cheryl to lose her acts first seems much nearer a flip to me than the 5/2 on offer, though that probably isn't out of line with current prices.

This is the latest poll on Digital Spy which is your favoourite overall

Andrea Faustini 40 (14.81%)
Ben Haenow 39 (14.44%)
Fleur East 55 (20.37%)
Lauren Platt 21 (7.78%)
Only the Young 90 (33.33%)
Stereo Kicks 9 (3.33%)
Stevi Richie 16 (5.93%)

Obviously not many voters, but it has to be good news for the Only The Young bet, and don't think it is bad for Fleur either.  Tellymix has everyone bar Stevi about level, but despite having more voters, I am not sure there are many more uniques!  I wouldn't be rushing to back anyone else right now (Andrea still looks short to me), and think we are in really good shape.  I certianly wouldn't be laying Only The Young anywhere near 33/1.

Must be a very quiet betting day, Only The Young the 4th most popular on oddschecker, and was as high as 3rd earlier when I looked.   

[Bazzaboy]

Gemma Collins gone

[JoeBeevers]

http://www.itv.com/imacelebrity/jungle-spy/gemma-collins-leaves-the-jungle

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £429.29

Outstanding Bets £4001.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A loss of £10 yesterday

Brandin Cooks of the New Orleans Saints was placed on injured reserve, ending his season with a broken wrist. He finished his rookie year with 550 yards and 4 touchdowns but won't be winning offensive rookie of the year

ongoing positions

Merstham FC. A footballing giant, near Redhill in Surrey. Hosted Guernsey last night in the Ryman One South. I settled down expectantly watching twitter. Two hours later i was less than expectant, as Merstham won 8-0, Guernsey's biggest ever competitive loss to send them to 18th in the table

None of our NBA positions were in action last night

Carlsen and Anand drew game 7 in the world chess championship. Carlsen leads 4-3 with 4 games to go, has white today and we need him to win another game

Yesterday did not seem too taxing



also last night

Click to see full-size image.