Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

NBA Sunday review.

Spurs/Chicago/Portland all won.  Memphis also won again which is bad for Spurs bet.  Knicks/Boston/Brooklyn/Toronto all lost in their division (Toronto might not even need 40 wins out of 82 games to actually win this division it's so bad).  Toronto's first real test of games in next 2 weeks.  They started a 3 game West coast road trip in 4 nights (lost first game last night at LA lakers).  Then they play Lebron and the Cavs twice in a week after that all without their injured best player.  Regression to the mean is expected after their hot start under a favourable schedule.

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/group/3

Rondo had 10 assists.  None of the other assist leaders played Sunday

Rookie of the year - only Wiggins played.  Poor game in another loss for the Twolves.  7 points and 1 rebound for Wiggins.

[TightEnd]

Figures as per the Mere month end report

The final day of November produced a loss of £14

Winners

- £20 Roethlisberger over 290 yards passing for Pittsburgh



- £20 Packers/Patriots under 58 points



losers

- £22 Josh Gordon under 85 yards for Cleveland v the Bills

- £22 London Irish lost 21-9 at home to Gloucester

- £10 Stereo Kicks exited X-Factor. It was totes emosh and not at all scripted

Click to see full-size image.

ongoing positions

Football

Southampton began to mean revert, losing 3-0 at home to Manchester City

could have been worse for Suthampton too, Aguero got booked for being fouled in the box



X-Factor

We have the top two in the betting with 4 remaining

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/winning-act

the big win position on Fleur and Simon winning manager at 4-1. the two favourites are his acts


NFL

- The Packers beating the Patriots sent them to 9-3, a game clear at the top of the NFC North and currently the number 2 seed in the division. We are on for Conference and Superbowl at 14-1

Packers have won 8 of their last 9 and are 6-0 at home this season

Click to see full-size image.

- Aaron Rodgers is now odds-on to be league MVP

Some of his stats this season are superb:

Aaron Rodgers at home in 2014 20 TD passes 0 Interceptions

Aaron Rodgers: 6 straight home games with multiple TD passes and no INT Only QB to match that in Super Bowl-era: Peyton Manning(6, 2010-12)

Aaron Rodgers has not thrown an INT at home in nearly 2 years (Dec 2, 2012)

Aaron Rodgers now at 360 consecutive pass att & 31 pass TDs in a row w/out an INT at home. Both NFL records

- The San Diego Chargers went to 8-4 with a fine win in Baltimore. Denver beat Kansas City last night to go 9-3. We have San Diego to win the divison at 13-2 so they are a game back with 4 to play. They have to play Denver

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- The Pittsburgh Steelers lost at home to the Saints. This makes the two games in the last four weeks against the Bengals crucial to prospects for the conference bet



- The Arizona Cardinals lost at Atlanta, really struggling on offense with a third string quarterback.



Now only a game ahead of the Seahawks and they too have to play each other before the end of the season

- Amongst player bets Matt Ryan threw for over 360 yards (including career high receiving yards for Julio Jones) for Atlanta



- Jamaal Charles was restricted to 35 yards rushing by Denver

- Aaron Donald recorded his sixth sack of the season for the Rams in their 52-0 win over the Raiders. If the Rams can have a strong finish to the season, we might yet be in the hunt for defensive rookie of the year. number 99 below

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- Kelvin Benjamin was restricted to 56 yards receiving on 5 catches for the sinking Carolina Panthers. Benjamin has been overtaken for offensive rookie of the year by the likes of Mike Evans, Odell Beckham etc. in fact it is now regarded as one of the best WR rookie classes ever.

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tonight the Jets play Miami. Its last chance saloon the Jets need to win to keep the Miami finish 4th in the division bet alive

Click to see full-size image.

  

[Tal]

Yes, a nice bit score by the Jets would be exactly what everyone wants. Cheer it home, folks.

[tikay]

It was totes emosh

Excellent!

[Tal]

It was totes emosh

Excellent!

Everyone except Tighty and Bobby1 is funking for the Jets tonight. The battle for the number one seed in Blondepoker Fantasy Footbawl reaches its compelling denouement overnight. The Nimzo Indians are hoping to maintain their status by ensuring Miami's Defence doesn't have a good game.

J-E-T-S
Jets Jets Jets!

[Eddycadub]

Dolphins @ Jets - with Miami having the best pass defense in the league in terms of yards allowed, Smith's troubles on offense before being dropped, and in general Jets being pretty terrible offensively, what do you guys think of Geno Smith Under 210.5 passing yards 10/11 on sky?

He's averaged 162 yards/game so far this season (although I think he may have been dropped mid game so that skews the number a little bit)

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/miami-dolphins-at-new-york-jets/total-passing-yds-geno-smith

[TightEnd]

Dolphins @ Jets - with Miami having the best pass defense in the league in terms of yards allowed, Smith's troubles on offense before being dropped, and in general Jets being pretty terrible offensively, what do you guys think of Geno Smith Under 210.5 passing yards 10/11 on sky?

He's averaged 162 yards/game so far this season (although I think he may have been dropped mid game so that skews the number a little bit)

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/miami-dolphins-at-new-york-jets/total-passing-yds-geno-smith

Hello,

the quote is low, but he's one of the worst QBs in the league

the best we could get would be o/u 200

Miami are 7 point favourites

points quotes around 42 i think

some of the various stats are as follows

He ranks last in the NFL in passing yards per game (162) as you said

As you say also that may not flatter him as he was pulled from two games and came into last week's game part way through, so i went to

http://www.nfl.com/player/genosmith/2539335/gamelogs

and tried to extract the data from full games only this season, of which there are 6

passing yards of 221, 176, 316, 209, 190, 226

which is 1338/6=223 yards per game. in those six you have a mixed bag of generally tough defenses (detriot, denver, new england amongst them)

since all of those games Percy Harvin is on board which in theory, but not practice yet, gives a big play receiver for a Jets QB


the match up looks bad though

Dolphins have a good pass defense, ranking fourth in passing yards per game allowed (211.7) and tied for fourth in sacks (31).


So my summary would be it instinctively feels right that he would struggle tonight, but quotes around 200 don't give you a lot to go at on the under given what he achieved before his benching

See what Talwise thinks!

[TightEnd]

think this would count as miscellaneous

"The Ladbrokes betting autumn statement bingo. Will Osborne use any of these?"

http://bit.ly/c5gpH6

Click to see full-size image.

[Chompy]

Jermain Defoe lolprice with the green clowns for those that can.

http://www.squawka.com/news/leicester-set-to-battle-qpr-to-bring-jermain-defoe-back-to-the-premier-league/234640

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/jermain-defoe/club-after-january-transfer-window

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/jermain-defoe/next-club

Sky and VC both around evens, with a time frame, lolpadraig 11-2 without a time frame. Worth £7.55 of anyone's money.

[Eddycadub]

Dolphins @ Jets - with Miami having the best pass defense in the league in terms of yards allowed, Smith's troubles on offense before being dropped, and in general Jets being pretty terrible offensively, what do you guys think of Geno Smith Under 210.5 passing yards 10/11 on sky?

He's averaged 162 yards/game so far this season (although I think he may have been dropped mid game so that skews the number a little bit)

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/miami-dolphins-at-new-york-jets/total-passing-yds-geno-smith

Hello,

the quote is low, but he's one of the worst QBs in the league

the best we could get would be o/u 200

Miami are 7 point favourites

points quotes around 42 i think

some of the various stats are as follows

He ranks last in the NFL in passing yards per game (162) as you said

As you say also that may not flatter him as he was pulled from two games and came into last week's game part way through, so i went to

http://www.nfl.com/player/genosmith/2539335/gamelogs

and tried to extract the data from full games only this season, of which there are 6

passing yards of 221, 176, 316, 209, 190, 226

which is 1338/6=223 yards per game. in those six you have a mixed bag of generally tough defenses (detriot, denver, new england amongst them)

since all of those games Percy Harvin is on board which in theory, but not practice yet, gives a big play receiver for a Jets QB


the match up looks bad though

Dolphins have a good pass defense, ranking fourth in passing yards per game allowed (211.7) and tied for fourth in sacks (31).


So my summary would be it instinctively feels right that he would struggle tonight, but quotes around 200 don't give you a lot to go at on the under given what he achieved before his benching

See what Talwise thinks!

Hi
With the line moving down to 200.5 on sky,  its certainly less attractive and I agree with your points. I suppose there is some chance he doesn't play the entire game tonight though, but that's hard to factor in. Maybe with all the info you provided O185.5 on PP becomes closer to a bet now lol, or perhaps just a stay-away overall. Thanks for your input.

[Tal]

Jets have had less prep time, albeit for a divisional game. The bet probably rides on Geno not playing the full hour or the Jets being ahead and clock managing. They'll be so desperate to win, if they were to go ahead, there will be absolutely no risks taken. They do have a competent running game, after all.

Dolphins have some injuries at cornerback, which might be worth monitoring if we fancy the overs on a player prop. Rex admitted the team needed to be more balanced in his press conference after the basting against the Detroit Bills. The Dolphins got whalloped by the Broncos' running game, so you'd expect them to be better in that department tonight. All suggests not wanting to play unders on passing yards.

An alternative to the bet would be pass attempts at 32.5. He's averaging 57.6% and 5.96 yards per completion (per ESPN). He went over four times, which is most of the times he's played the whole game. If you can see Rex sticking two fingers up to the boardroom on his way out and pulling Geno to the bench, this might be the better line. Otherwise, I'd be more inclined to plump for the overs. I don't think I'm betting on this one, though.

[RobS]

Patrick can't be too careful.

City to win Prem 9/2

Straight forecast City 1st, Chelsea 2nd?

7/2

[Doobs]

Patrick can't be too careful.

City to win Prem 9/2

Straight forecast City 1st, Chelsea 2nd?

7/2

It is inevitable they'd still restrict you to shrapnel too.

[DungBeetle]

Here we go again........

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/next-manager-to-leave-post

[arbboy]

You know it's a shit day of sport when you flick through sky sports and your options for the evening are.....

ssp1 - u21 epl football followed by a documentary on Gibralter national football team

ssp2 - live badminton

ssp3 - live mosconi cup pool

ss4 - trliby tour golf (wtf is that!)

ss5 replays of la liga.