Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Khan is certainly not a 33/1 shot to beat Mayweather but he is probably a 11/2 shot and maybe 2/1 to get the fight which makes him nearly 20-1 before you factor in what price he is to win spoty if he does all of that.  Its probably not awful tbh and I actually half fancy him for the Mayweather fight if he gets it.  Think he matches up well.

This is basically my reasoning, red.

It's not a mile out but I like our side over the bookies'. Of course, when you factor in tying up money for a year, it probably evens out.

He could end up fighting Manny, instead. Or get arrested.

[redarmi]

Khan is certainly not a 33/1 shot to beat Mayweather but he is probably a 11/2 shot and maybe 2/1 to get the fight which makes him nearly 20-1 before you factor in what price he is to win spoty if he does all of that.  Its probably not awful tbh and I actually half fancy him for the Mayweather fight if he gets it.  Think he matches up well.

This is basically my reasoning, red.

It's not a mile out but I like our side over the bookies'. Of course, when you factor in tying up money for a year, it probably evens out.

He could end up fighting Manny, instead. Or get arrested.

Just been pointed out to me that Khan is a lot shorter for the fight if it happens.....so if you believe the bookies prices it is probably even better.  Off the top of my head if he beat PBF he would have to be close to odds on.  Hatton would have won it without a doubt if he had neat PBF that year although he fought literally the night before the ceremony which is important.

[Kmac84]

I couldn't have Khan in a month of Sunday's against either Manny or PBF.  I'd also think he was much bigger than an 11/2 chance.   I wouldn't fancy backing anyone at 1/20 TAL but neither would I want to back Khan at anything less thanclose to 11/2.

[BigAdz]

Fair enough. Just putting it out there.

Didn't see Khan fight at weekend, but again fits a profile. However....

Money is going after PacMan next year and I don't see him wanting two fights like that in a year, and beating Money is the key to this bet surely?

[Tal]

Fair enough. Just putting it out there.

Didn't see Khan fight at weekend, but again fits a profile. However....

Money is going after PacMan next year and I don't see him wanting two fights like that in a year, and beating Money is the key to this bet surely?

If Mayweather and Manny were going to fight, they'd have done it five years ago.

[BigAdz]

Fair enough. Just putting it out there.

Didn't see Khan fight at weekend, but again fits a profile. However....

Money is going after PacMan next year and I don't see him wanting two fights like that in a year, and beating Money is the key to this bet surely?

If Mayweather and Manny were going to fight, they'd have done it five years ago.

Big payday at end of careers. Probably still draw just as much money.

Whereas a fight for either a few years back may have stopped the others gravy train? Maybe?

[Mark_Porter]

I couldn't have Khan in a month of Sunday's against either Manny or PBF.  I'd also think he was much bigger than an 11/2 chance.   I wouldn't fancy backing anyone at 1/20 TAL but neither would I want to back Khan at anything less thanclose to 11/2.

I would be a big backer of Khan at 11/2 if I could get it.

He is finally mature and at his peak now and was true world class at the weekend. I think he could push Mayweather all the way.

Issue is whether the fight gets made.

[Marky147]

Fair enough. Just putting it out there.

Didn't see Khan fight at weekend, but again fits a profile. However....

Money is going after PacMan next year and I don't see him wanting two fights like that in a year, and beating Money is the key to this bet surely?

If Mayweather and Manny were going to fight, they'd have done it five years ago.

Big payday at end of careers. Probably still draw just as much money.

Whereas a fight for either a few years back may have stopped the others gravy train? Maybe?

Mayweather has gone after him this time, and from what Pacquaio said, he's not arsed about money this time.

Fingers crossed it comes off, and Pacquaio smashes the granny out of him!

[McGlashan]

If I recall correctly we backed Froch as top 3 e/w terms were appealing. Unfortunately for the first time in his career he fought less than twice in a calendar year, Chavez Jr dragged his heels over a December bout and Froch declined to fight DeGale.  If Froch had won a second bout we'd of all been saying it was a great bet.

[TightEnd]

If I recall correctly we backed Froch as top 3 e/w terms were appealing. Unfortunately for the first time in his career he fought less than twice in a calendar year, Chavez Jr dragged his heels over a December bout and Froch declined to fight DeGale.  If Froch had won a second bout we'd of all been saying it was a great bet.

i think i disagree

any sport with big bbc coverage is going to get a lot of puff compared to boxing which these days is PPV and certainly non terrestial

there is a big move to nominating minority sports as you can see from the top ten

would be extremely surprised if Hatton and Calzaghe were not the last boxing top 3 in SPOTY for a long long long time barring a complete superstar emerging who becomes a household name

Froch isn't a household name and this vote confirmed that

--


you also don't have ronnie o nominated, no mvg, no ryan moore etc etc...the top ten is getting more and more difficult to predict every year and i think this in itself tends to mitigate against ante post pokes at spoty particularly in a year withbig bbc events like commonwealth games, winter olympics etc .

we got lucky this time

[icles test]

If I recall correctly we backed Froch as top 3 e/w terms were appealing. Unfortunately for the first time in his career he fought less than twice in a calendar year, Chavez Jr dragged his heels over a December bout and Froch declined to fight DeGale.  If Froch had won a second bout we'd of all been saying it was a great bet.

i think i disagree

any sport with big bbc coverage is going to get a lot of puff compared to boxing which these days is PPV and certainly non terrestial

there is a big move to nominating minority sports as you can see from the top ten

would be extremely surprised if Hatton and Calzaghe were not the last boxing top 3 in SPOTY for a long long long time barring a complete superstar emerging who becomes a household name

Froch isn't a household name and this vote confirmed that

--


you also don't have ronnie o nominated, no mvg, no ryan moore etc etc...the top ten is getting more and more difficult to predict every year and i think this in itself tends to mitigate against ante post pokes at spoty particularly in a year withbig bbc events like commonwealth games, winter olympics etc .

we got lucky this time

mvg?

Froch is a paper champion only fighting andre ward would catapult him into true contention.

There are trends for certain years, I think I posted when we first dicussed an athlete always top3s when theres a CW games which certainly adds weight to your BBC line. Line seems to be major BBC coverage that takes place summer or later. TBH I was thinking how close does bale get there if hes english.

[bobby1]

just out now phil

mvp watch, part of

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/15/nfl-week-15-winners-losers/

Thanks Rich

[TightEnd]

van gerwen. taylor i should have put instead, not a dutchman

what i am implying is the list is utterly middle class and bbc

the panel that decides the top ten includes, among others sue barker, clare balding etc


ask the average sports fan for a top ten for a SPOTY hosted by sky/itv on it you would have snooker, darts, racing, boxing etc etc

instead you have bbc sports, famously including the dressage lady in 4th a sport i saw memorably described last night as "sitting on a horse while it twats about"

you have to take this into account when looking at spoty ante post and add onto prices for khan, joshua etc etc for the fact that they are less likely to make the cut for a bbc event

[Doobs]

If I recall correctly we backed Froch as top 3 e/w terms were appealing. Unfortunately for the first time in his career he fought less than twice in a calendar year, Chavez Jr dragged his heels over a December bout and Froch declined to fight DeGale.  If Froch had won a second bout we'd of all been saying it was a great bet.

i think i disagree

any sport with big bbc coverage is going to get a lot of puff compared to boxing which these days is PPV and certainly non terrestial

there is a big move to nominating minority sports as you can see from the top ten

would be extremely surprised if Hatton and Calzaghe were not the last boxing top 3 in SPOTY for a long long long time barring a complete superstar emerging who becomes a household name

Froch isn't a household name and this vote confirmed that

--


you also don't have ronnie o nominated, no mvg, no ryan moore etc etc...the top ten is getting more and more difficult to predict every year and i think this in itself tends to mitigate against ante post pokes at spoty particularly in a year withbig bbc events like commonwealth games, winter olympics etc .

we got lucky this time

mvg?

Froch is a paper champion only fighting andre ward would catapult him into true contention.

Did you not get the memo?

Since the Scots have started getting bolshy, we have widened the field to include the Dutch.  Of course only winners will be welcome as honorary Brits, runners up and other losers will remain Dutch.   HTH

[TightEnd]

so what is there in 2015?

cricket world cup. against: early in the year, not on bbc. we won't win. becoming a minority sport

rugby world cup: late in the year. on itv. northern hemisphere chances

athletics world champs: which is why jessica ennis and mo farah are on the ante post list. in beijing on the bbc, going to be a big bbc treatment event

chris froome is favourite for the tdf



fwiw i would be thinking of athletes who might win their events in the world championships, outside mo and jess ennis who are already quoted

far more likely to win than any boxer barring something extraordinary, which is just my opinion