Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

small piece of admin

Mere is going to create a new category for "motor sport" , seeing as we are seeing general four wheel bets with increasing frequency. these are currently recorded as F1 when in fact a broader category is correct

"Motorsport" please, rather than "motor sport" or "MotorSport"!! #pedantic

Sorry, Peter, but I read it as "motor sport", because that prius racing competition you tipped up the other day looks like "motorsport" but, on closer inspection, it isn't.

Yes. Yes.

I made a similar mistake.

For "Strictly Come Dancing" I read "pile of poo", and "X Factor" appeared to say "Get A Life".


Easy mistakes, huh!

Ha!

[Doobs]

That might be a little too "arty" for our hero who is very highly principled about such matters.

Value is value.

I'd lower myself to beat on I'm a Celeb or CBB if the bet is good enough.

evening Camel

[TL900]

NFL tonight, first time Ive ever seen this, William Hill have opened lines based on a players fantasy points tonight.

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/t/18743/NFL---Fantasy.html

thoughts on these? Really line Bennett under 11.5 even with Marshall out.

[Marky147]

Obvious winner, is obvious...

Not sure how anyone could have stopped themselves wading into Hamilton



For reference, price movements on the final day:

Rory McIlroy - having been matched as low as 1.09 after he won the PGA Championship (having already won The Open), he then slowly drifted the more likely Hamilton's chance of winning the F1 title became. During the week leading up to the show, he was around 1.5, On the day of the show, he was mostly trading in the 1.6s but then there was a sudden shortening of price in the half hour before the show started at 8pm. He was low 1.4s at 8pm and then constantly shortened during the show (even though the phone lines hadn't yet opened) and eventually hit a low of 1.1 before then bouncing a little to 1.2. His last price matched was 1.15

Lewis Hamilton -
Spent most of Sunday trading in the 2.6 to 2.9 range. Upon McIlroy's shorting, he obviously drifted. He was 3.4 at 8pm and hit a high of 10 before shortening a little. His last price matched was 6.6.

Jo Pavey - as third fav outright (with Bale not far behind) had spent the final week shortening from around 2.5 to near Evs for a Top 3 place, then during the show shortened again down to low 1.6s



Highest prices matched on Hamilton (his lowest price matched all year was 2.48)

20    £26
21    £48
22    £15
23    £13
24    £36
25    £17
26    £6
27    £18
28    £15
29    £4
30    £27

Lowest prices matched on McIlroy (1.1 being hit back in August and again during the show)

1.09    £444
1.10    £7,535
1.11    £18,098
1.12    £22,897
1.13    £28,414
1.14    £21,869
1.15    £13,925
1.16    £30,372
1.17    £33,339
1.18    £37,768
1.19    £29,254
1.20    £35,298
1.21    £19,902
1.22    £16,056
1.23    £17,001
1.24    £14,890
1.25    £10,624
1.26    £11,643
1.27    £6,962
1.28    £13,269
1.29    £11,013
1.30    £13,642


(Nicked from the good chap at BF)

[Doobs]

Obvious winner, is obvious...

Not sure how anyone could have stopped themselves wading into Hamilton



For reference, price movements on the final day:

Rory McIlroy - having been matched as low as 1.09 after he won the PGA Championship (having already won The Open), he then slowly drifted the more likely Hamilton's chance of winning the F1 title became. During the week leading up to the show, he was around 1.5, On the day of the show, he was mostly trading in the 1.6s but then there was a sudden shortening of price in the half hour before the show started at 8pm. He was low 1.4s at 8pm and then constantly shortened during the show (even though the phone lines hadn't yet opened) and eventually hit a low of 1.1 before then bouncing a little to 1.2. His last price matched was 1.15

Lewis Hamilton -
Spent most of Sunday trading in the 2.6 to 2.9 range. Upon McIlroy's shorting, he obviously drifted. He was 3.4 at 8pm and hit a high of 10 before shortening a little. His last price matched was 6.6.

Jo Pavey - as third fav outright (with Bale not far behind) had spent the final week shortening from around 2.5 to near Evs for a Top 3 place, then during the show shortened again down to low 1.6s



Highest prices matched on Hamilton (his lowest price matched all year was 2.48)

20    £26
21    £48
22    £15
23    £13
24    £36
25    £17
26    £6
27    £18
28    £15
29    £4
30    £27

Lowest prices matched on McIlroy (1.1 being hit back in August and again during the show)

1.09    £444
1.10    £7,535
1.11    £18,098
1.12    £22,897
1.13    £28,414
1.14    £21,869
1.15    £13,925
1.16    £30,372
1.17    £33,339
1.18    £37,768
1.19    £29,254
1.20    £35,298
1.21    £19,902
1.22    £16,056
1.23    £17,001
1.24    £14,890
1.25    £10,624
1.26    £11,643
1.27    £6,962
1.28    £13,269
1.29    £11,013
1.30    £13,642


(Nicked from the good chap at BF)

Obviously too busy laying Jonny Wilkinson

Regards

D

[Tal]

NFL tonight, first time Ive ever seen this, William Hill have opened lines based on a players fantasy points tonight.

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/t/18743/NFL---Fantasy.html

thoughts on these? Really line Bennett under 11.5 even with Marshall out.

That's an interesting one. It's a huge game for Bennett tonight (and for very few other people probably) as he's close to a pro bowl selection. He told the Chicago Tribune this week:

"If another guy is on that other side, I'm like, man, I'm gonna outplay this (guy). I hate when they have a better game than me. How many times do people get to see both of you at the same time? People talk about the tight ends in the league, so when I go out there Monday night — prime-time games I always ball out."

He was referring to playing against another elite Tight End and he has one tonight in Jimmy Graham of the Saints.

Let's also remember the Saints are biblically terrible against the pass and the Bears have decided they don't like using one of the best running backs in the game to run the ball, so pay Cutler a billion pounds a week to spray it about like a pierced can of pop.

I'm not rich enough to back against any receiver scoring points against New Orleans. Interested to know what the grown ups think, though.

[Tal]

Well done, TL900. Chicago's offense didn't turn up, so I hope you were on. What a mess they are!

[tikay]

Miscellaneous profits (politics, x factor, strictly, big brother, i'm a celebrity, weather, superbowl half time etc) are now over £2,000 with a 35% ROI on 134 bets since thread inceptipon

this is despite Fleur not quite pulling off the big win for us tonight

This matter really exercised me, so I did a little digging.

Variance, luck, (small) sample size, or is there good reason for these numbers?

Below are our top 5 most profitable (measured by amount won, not ROI) Sports.

                 PROFIT      Amt. Bet     ROI           No. of bets
Football       2,585.46     33,194.06       7.79          1,053
Misc.           1,992.80      5,533.44      36.01             137
Baseball       1,037.20     1,726.00      60.09               37
Horses           633.15    33,576.62        1.89           1,029
NFL               553.16      8,632.61        6.41             235


These need to be seen in the context of.....

Overall Profit £4,982.49

Overall amount wagered £130,282

Overall ROI 3.82%

Overall number of bets 4,232

I'm not sure what conclusion we can draw from those numbers.

Horse Racing & Football have a near identical number of bets, & amount wagered, but Horse Racing makes very much less profit for the same sum expended.

The real eye-opener though is "Misc".

From what I recall, the bulk of this comes from.....

Novelty TV (X-Factor, SCD etc)

Weather

SuperBowl Novelty Bets

WSOP (Poker)

In particular, we seem to have been way ahead of the Market on the Novelty TV stuff, consistently getting it in good (beating the price) on X-Factor & SCD.

For those that enjoy the thread, & selectively follow the tips, & like to help make it better, or at least survive a little longer, can we draw any conclusions from that Top 5, & should we be doing anything different?

I'd never have dreamed we could turn a consistent profit (approx 4%) over 4,200 bets & £130,000 wagered, but the Novelty Bets success surprises me even more.

Are the markets badly priced, or are we just blessed with some very perceptive & wise regulars?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £398.94

Outstanding Bets £4007.95

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=33

No bets completed yesterday

the only action with relevance to our bets was in basketball

"Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker left the Milwaukee Bucks' game against the Phoenix Suns early in the third quarter because of a left knee sprain. "

Parker is one of our rookie of the year bets

He's averaging 12.3 PPG this season, 2nd among rookies to Andrew Wiggins (12.8 ) who we also have in the portfolio

Its unknown as yet how long Parker will be out for

Click to see full-size image.

in matches last night

the Cleveland Cavs lost 97-98 to the Charlotte Hornets

the Chicago Bulls lost 86-93 to the Atlanta Hawks

in better news

Toronto Raptors beat Orlando 95-82

Portland Trailbazers beat the San Antonio Spurs 108-95, though we have positions on both teams

LA Clippers beat the Detroit Pistons 113-91


in the NCAA Duke won again to go 9-0. their star player Jahlil Okafor became the first Duke player with a 20-point, 20-rebound game since 1998

this was a freshman record for duke in rebounds

[TightEnd]

Miscellaneous profits (politics, x factor, strictly, big brother, i'm a celebrity, weather, superbowl half time etc) are now over £2,000 with a 35% ROI on 134 bets since thread inceptipon

this is despite Fleur not quite pulling off the big win for us tonight

This matter really exercised me, so I did a little digging.

Variance, luck, (small) sample size, or is there good reason for these numbers?

Below are our top 5 most profitable (measured by amount won, not ROI) Sports.

                  PROFIT      Amt. Bet     ROI           No. of bets
Football       2,585.46     33,194.06       7.79          1,053
Misc.           1,992.80      5,533.44      36.01             137
Baseball       1,037.20     1,726.00      60.09               37
Horses           633.15    33,576.62        1.89           1,029
NFL               553.16      8,632.61        6.41             235


These need to be seen in the context of.....

Overall Profit £4,982.49

Overall amount wagered £130,282

Overall ROI 3.82%

Overall number of bets 4,232

I'm not sure what conclusion we can draw from those numbers.

Horse Racing & Football have a near identical number of bets, & amount wagered, but Horse Racing makes very much less profit for the same sum expended.

The real eye-opener though is "Misc".

From what I recall, the bulk of this comes from.....

Novelty TV (X-Factor, SCD etc)

Weather

SuperBowl Novelty Bets

WSOP (Poker)

In particular, we seem to have been way ahead of the Market on the Novelty TV stuff, consistently getting it in good (beating the price) on X-Factor & SCD.

For those that enjoy the thread, & selectively follow the tips, & like to help make it better, or at least survive a little longer, can we draw any conclusions from that Top 5, & should we be doing anything different?

I'd never have dreamed we could turn a consistent profit (approx 4%) over 4,200 bets & £130,000 wagered, but the Novelty Bets success surprises me even more.

Are the markets badly priced, or are we just blessed with some very perceptive & wise regulars?

we have knowledge across a whole load of sports, but the novelty markets (if you can get on) are comparatively inefficiently priced

if anything, we should be looking to increase them (frequency and size) as opportunities arise

[horseplayer]

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/dec/16/sam-torrance-nick-faldo-arsehole-sergio-garcia-ryder-cup?CMP=share_btn_tw

[horseplayer]

Leeds and Forest are inline to win the Skybet 250k prize

Slight problem they are banned from buying anybody

[TightEnd]

Leeds and Forest are inline to win the Skybet 250k prize

Slight problem they are banned from buying anybody

can be used for paying loan players and wages of free transfers

[TightEnd]

Band Aid 30 50-1

ben haenow 1-7

loser incoming

http://www.oddschecker.com/christmas/christmas-number-one/winning-act

[horseplayer]

1/7 haenow is an example.of value at a short price?

Can't see any scenario it can be beat?