Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

yup suggest away

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/bournemouth-v-liverpool/winner

the bbc reported earlier

"Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe is expected to name his strongest possible team for the League Cup quarter-final tie. "

i think so far the bournemouth league cup sides this season have rested players

--

on the other hand, liverpool should really go for it, best hope of a trophy, mid table etcetc

Yes normally rests most of the first choice players for league cup. However as Eddie constantly says , he has a strong squad and there isn't much between them all....as demostrated by the cup results so far. Rumour is he will mix it up tonight...but no one knows .
B'mouth on a great run of form/confidence high...nothing to lose. However the team names wont be much different to the one that lost to Liverpool in Jan this year in the cup 2-0. When you factor in Liverpool's situation atm , you could therefore argue there wont be much in it tonight.
 

[horseplayer]

I am happy to have the bet on my figures but I really would like horsey's opinion as I seem to remember him writing that Bournemouth were a " seriously good side". I can't add any more to the discussion other than I think Liverpool are too short.

Hi Hector

Yes they are, i certainly wish i had actually backed them way back when i posted that!

As Ripple says they actually have a deceptively strong bench (Dan Gosling for example started and scored a lot in the league cup barely gets a sniff in the league).

Not going to be able to resist backing Gosling in various goal markets if he starts again.

As for the match prices looks like Liverpool will continue to shorten till kick off (were odds against after the weekend) Maybe this is as more people have realised Bournemouth may play a rotated side.

From that point of view if anything Liverpool might be even shorter come kick off when people get the team news (presuming Rodgers picks his strongest team which seems likely)

[TightEnd]

if it is any use, here is the sportinglife piece online as of a few minutes ago

"The Italy international was a second-half substitute in Sunday's defeat at Manchester United, where he made his comeback after more than a month on the sidelines with a groin problem.

Balotelli has stayed behind to receive further treatment on the injury at the club's Melwood training ground with a view to him being fit for Sunday's visit of Arsenal.

Defender Glen Johnson, who came off with a groin injury at Old Trafford, is likely to be out for about a month, meaning on-loan Javier Manquillo could be set for an extended run if manager Brendan Rodgers reverts to a flat back four having experimented with three centre-backs against United.

Rodgers is expected to name a strong side against the Sky Bet Championship leaders as he looks for a much-needed confidence boost after exiting the Champions League and losing against their arch-rivals in the same week.

That could mean Raheem Sterling, in the absence of Balotelli, is again asked to perform in the central striking role as he did against United.

The 20-year-old has reportedly been attracting the interest of Bayern Munich and, although Liverpool have yet to tie him down to a new contract, Rodgers is relaxed about the player's future and does not think they will lose the youngster as they did Luis Suarez to Barcelona in the summer.

"Hopefully it is not going to be the case. We are trying to build something here," said Rodgers.

"We were on a path for a couple of years and we have had to come off that path since the summer having lost some players and have had to regroup.

"He is a real talisman for this team. He has been a great example of the progress that a lot of the players have made here.

"He has gone from a youth team player to one of the top young players in European football.

"The club, I am sure, will work very hard (on his contract) and Raheem is happy here, he loves being a Liverpool player.

"I am sure between them and the representatives we can get a deal done which will see him go on to continue to develop what is an exciting career.

"I will never be surprised teams will be linked with Raheem as he is such a big talent at 20, a wonderful young player, but I am quite relaxed about it."

Of the cup clash on the south coast Rodgers added: "We're in competitions to win trophies, so if we can get the victory against Bournemouth and get through, the aim for us would be to hopefully go on and win the competition.

"This is the first cup competition that you can win, so it was always a priority for me.""

[horseplayer]

Betfred just pushed out Lewis for the darts to 14/1 btw

£100 max if you can or anyone wants to

[Bazzaboy]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

I had a look at this market but really couldn't decide if there was value in it. What have the previous years figures been and is the trend upwards, downwards or a mixture?

Looking at the other market of most individual 180's I quite like the 100/30 on Anderson, can obviously score quite a lot, is second on the most 180's list with 58 (60 for Lewis) and if he carries forward his form from his last win then he could easily be in the final. Others I was looking at was Bunting at 20/1 and Chizzy at 11/1. Thoughts?

I like Ando at top 180s.

I recall backing him either last year or previous, and he knocked em in. Think he was knocked out in quarter but was still ahead after semis, if memory serves. If he is in better form, as I am being told, along with easier draw, should get a good run for the money.

again before i get on Anderson

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/most-180s

if MVG is slated to score 60 180s, how much is backing Anderson just a bet on MVG not going deep in the tournament?

is Lewis a runner here? again, only from cursory research, he hit 60 in 2011

I'm not sure there's any value in Anderson at 10/3 given he is a 3/1 shot to make the final. Since the event has been at the Ally Pally the winner of most 180s has always been a finalist. I like the 2/1 MVG, he is 11/8 to make the final, the only player in the bottom half that could potentially come close to him is Lewis and he has a minefield to negotiate to make the final.

[McGlashan]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

I had a look at this market but really couldn't decide if there was value in it. What have the previous years figures been and is the trend upwards, downwards or a mixture?

Looking at the other market of most individual 180's I quite like the 100/30 on Anderson, can obviously score quite a lot, is second on the most 180's list with 58 (60 for Lewis) and if he carries forward his form from his last win then he could easily be in the final. Others I was looking at was Bunting at 20/1 and Chizzy at 11/1. Thoughts?

I like Ando at top 180s.

I recall backing him either last year or previous, and he knocked em in. Think he was knocked out in quarter but was still ahead after semis, if memory serves. If he is in better form, as I am being told, along with easier draw, should get a good run for the money.

again before i get on Anderson

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/most-180s

if MVG is slated to score 60 180s, how much is backing Anderson just a bet on MVG not going deep in the tournament?

is Lewis a runner here? again, only from cursory research, he hit 60 in 2011

I'm not sure there's any value in Anderson at 10/3 given he is a 3/1 shot to make the final. Since the event has been at the Ally Pally the winner of most 180s has always been a finalist. I like the 2/1 MVG, he is 11/8 to make the final, the only player in the bottom half that could potentially come close to him is Lewis and he has a minefield to negotiate to make the final.

Regarding Horseplayer's above post, would you take Lewis outright at 14-1 rather than e/w?

[Bazzaboy]

Arrers.

PDC World Champs start soon. How about a sweat for the occasion?

The line for 180s is 599.5 with William Tells, at 5/6 each of two. Last year, there were 603 and almost 10% of those were the 2015 SPOTY frontrunner, Sir Michael of Gerwen. That was a record by some distance and the only year that line has been topped.

I expect the punters love betting the overs, which means the line will be higher than it should be, in order to split the handle (no point losing silly money on a submarket - not suggesting for a moment some bookies are risk averse). From what I can find, the board will be the same that has been used in Sky PDC events all year and Taylor having a good run might nudge the 180 count down a bit, given he's a prominent coverer in the green bit.

Does anyone have a view on this? How about £42 for £35 on there being under 599.5 maximums?

I had a look at this market but really couldn't decide if there was value in it. What have the previous years figures been and is the trend upwards, downwards or a mixture?

Looking at the other market of most individual 180's I quite like the 100/30 on Anderson, can obviously score quite a lot, is second on the most 180's list with 58 (60 for Lewis) and if he carries forward his form from his last win then he could easily be in the final. Others I was looking at was Bunting at 20/1 and Chizzy at 11/1. Thoughts?

I like Ando at top 180s.

I recall backing him either last year or previous, and he knocked em in. Think he was knocked out in quarter but was still ahead after semis, if memory serves. If he is in better form, as I am being told, along with easier draw, should get a good run for the money.

again before i get on Anderson

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship/most-180s

if MVG is slated to score 60 180s, how much is backing Anderson just a bet on MVG not going deep in the tournament?

is Lewis a runner here? again, only from cursory research, he hit 60 in 2011

I'm not sure there's any value in Anderson at 10/3 given he is a 3/1 shot to make the final. Since the event has been at the Ally Pally the winner of most 180s has always been a finalist. I like the 2/1 MVG, he is 11/8 to make the final, the only player in the bottom half that could potentially come close to him is Lewis and he has a minefield to negotiate to make the final.

Regarding Horseplayer's above post, would you take Lewis outright at 14-1 rather than e/w?

i would but there's not much in it

[BorntoBubble]

Betfred just pushed out Lewis for the darts to 14/1 btw

£100 max if you can or anyone wants to

I can not see this is it an offer somewhere/has it gone?

[vegaslover]

As a Liverpool fan I would be a +1 to laying Liverpool.
Liverpool have often been poor in cup games under Rodgers and we have a pretty poor record in full against lower league teams.


As to the overs bet in the darts, is it best to wait for the public to get on the overs and move the line higher?

[icles test]

Morning Mr T.

Could we have a discussion about laying Liverpool tonight against Bournemouth. I think too many people are scared to suggest football bets now as there always seems to be somebody who likes to write " it's in the price" or " what do we know that the bookies don't ?" and we are missing some great bets. My figures show me that I have made more from premier league football since the start of the season than any other sport.

I know Liverpool are an average premier team, and Bournemouth are top of the Championship and have scored way more goals than anyone else in the division. We can lay Liverpool at odd on it seems.

I would hope that horsey will comment as I know that he has watched Bournemouth live this season. It may be that we need to see the team sheet before laying Liverpool, as Bournemouth could decide that the league is more important but we should at least be considering this.

Anyway it is something to discuss as I would like to see Fred bet on more football matches to get back to that sense of "all in it together" on big football games. But I am not suggesting betting on all matches in anyway.

Think newcastle are a bet at 7/2 or better if sissoko starts. He is the most important player in the team/driving force and our options without him in the attack minded midfield role are non-existent (unproven that siem de jong actually plays football). Hopefully we will be able to start sissoko.colback and tiote (prefer abeid but hes def out). Arsenal game is forgettable where pardew was finally punished for his ridiculous tactical decision. We need to start perez or cisse upfront, I prefer perez with cisse from the bench, but not both. But spurs being bigger favourites to knock out newcastle then liverpool to beat bournemouth cant be right. We have injuries but we beat city with our B team, and beat spurs at home in the league.

[McGlashan]

Betfred just pushed out Lewis for the darts to 14/1 btw

£100 max if you can or anyone wants to

I can not see this is it an offer somewhere/has it gone?

Gone. Might be one of those price boosts things that kicks in again roundabout 6pm.

[hector62]

OK Mr T.

A number of people like the lay of Liverpool, and as horsey thought they have shortened a smidgeon this afternoon, can we lay them to lose £25 on betfair currently it is 10/11.

[TightEnd]

2.00-2.02 on betfair

i assume you want me to wait for Liverpool money to come?

i am not online after 6.30pm so will lay then if i have to/it hasn't shortened

[TightEnd]

Newcastle were also mentioned earlier

available above 7/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/tottenham-v-newcastle/winner

again, 6.30pm deadline if the consensus is we want on them later

[Marky147]

See Henry has just signed a £4m per year 6yr deal with Sky, and what was more interesting is that Neville is only  on £1.2m a year.

Going off Neville's deal, how much is Carragher coughing up to keep himself on the firm?

Why the need for a 6yr deal, too?

Not like Real Madrid are going to nick him on a bosman...