Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

See Henry has just signed a £4m per year 6yr deal with Sky, and what was more interesting is that Neville is only  on £1.2m a year.

Going off Neville's deal, how much is Carragher coughing up to keep himself on the firm?

Why the need for a 6yr deal, too?

Not like Real Madrid are going to nick him on a bosman...

Read that as 4m for 6 years, nice work if you can get it.....then re-read....fml 

[hector62]

Tighty I don't know enough about betfair to know if the price is dropping or not. I am happy that at 2.02 to lay Liverpool so I suggest you go for it now.

[Karabiner]

See Henry has just signed a £4m per year 6yr deal with Sky, and what was more interesting is that Neville is only  on £1.2m a year.

Going off Neville's deal, how much is Carragher coughing up to keep himself on the firm?

Why the need for a 6yr deal, too?

Not like Real Madrid are going to nick him on a bosman...

I wonder if gramps has a clause in his contract where he gets paid the same as the top-earner.

[TightEnd]

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Your liability

Liverpool 2.02 £25.00 £25.50

[Mark_Porter]

Is the Queen on her way?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2877751/Bookies-suspend-bettering-Queen-abdicating-Christmas-Day-speech-flurry-bets.html

Coral said: 'There's no smoke without fire' and pulled the plug on the market.

[Marky147]

Is the Queen on her way?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2877751/Bookies-suspend-bettering-Queen-abdicating-Christmas-Day-speech-flurry-bets.html

Coral said: 'There's no smoke without fire' and pulled the plug on the market.

Must have taken at least a bullseye to cause that...

[Marky147]

See Henry has just signed a £4m per year 6yr deal with Sky, and what was more interesting is that Neville is only  on £1.2m a year.

Going off Neville's deal, how much is Carragher coughing up to keep himself on the firm?

Why the need for a 6yr deal, too?

Not like Real Madrid are going to nick him on a bosman...

I wonder if gramps has a clause in his contract where he gets paid the same as the top-earner.

[Chompy]

Is the Queen on her way?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2877751/Bookies-suspend-bettering-Queen-abdicating-Christmas-Day-speech-flurry-bets.html

Coral said: 'There's no smoke without fire' and pulled the plug on the market.

Must have taken at least a bullseye to cause that...

Good publicity for one of Britain's leading bookmakers though.

Never saw this market and I keep a close eye on the novelty stuff. Not saying it never existed...

Similarly, Nicola McLean was quoted as saying Coral had seen a flurry of bets on Jake Quickenden going into the Big Brother house, despite Coral not having a market on who's going into the Big Brother house.

Ms McLean has been busy.

[redarmi]

One the basis of the (bizarre) lineup Rodgers has put out again tonight I think 13/2 Raheem Sterling is a really, really good bet to score first tonight.

[Tal]

Is the Queen on her way?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2877751/Bookies-suspend-bettering-Queen-abdicating-Christmas-Day-speech-flurry-bets.html

Coral said: 'There's no smoke without fire' and pulled the plug on the market.

Must have taken at least a bullseye to cause that...

Good publicity for one of Britain's leading bookmakers though.

Never saw this market and I keep a close eye on the novelty stuff. Not saying it never existed...

Similarly, Nicola McLean was quoted as saying Coral had seen a flurry of bets on Jake Quickenden going into the Big Brother house, despite Coral not having a market on who's going into the Big Brother house.

Ms McLean has been busy.

Indeed.

What a load of tosh! The Queen is not abdicating.

Who would be betting on it? It would have to have come from a very well-connected source, who would be risking quite a lot to leak the news effectively. That person would then bet betting - how much? £200? - on it because it's not like you can walk into Corals and say "Hello. I'd like £50k on The Queen abdicating please".

Perhaps there's a rogue Equerry or a journalist disguised as a corgi?

Been looking for a use for my new favourite gif...

[Tal]

Naturally, when we have King Charles III in January (as I don't expect he'll be George now, as was always anticipated), I'll retire from blonde.

[Peter-27]

Miscellaneous profits (politics, x factor, strictly, big brother, i'm a celebrity, weather, superbowl half time etc) are now over £2,000 with a 35% ROI on 134 bets since thread inceptipon

this is despite Fleur not quite pulling off the big win for us tonight

This matter really exercised me, so I did a little digging.

Variance, luck, (small) sample size, or is there good reason for these numbers?

Below are our top 5 most profitable (measured by amount won, not ROI) Sports.

                  PROFIT      Amt. Bet     ROI           No. of bets
Football       2,585.46     33,194.06       7.79          1,053
Misc.           1,992.80      5,533.44      36.01             137
Baseball       1,037.20     1,726.00      60.09               37
Horses           633.15    33,576.62        1.89           1,029
NFL               553.16      8,632.61        6.41             235


These need to be seen in the context of.....

Overall Profit £4,982.49

Overall amount wagered £130,282

Overall ROI 3.82%

Overall number of bets 4,232

I'm not sure what conclusion we can draw from those numbers.

Horse Racing & Football have a near identical number of bets, & amount wagered, but Horse Racing makes very much less profit for the same sum expended.

The real eye-opener though is "Misc".

From what I recall, the bulk of this comes from.....

Novelty TV (X-Factor, SCD etc)

Weather

SuperBowl Novelty Bets

WSOP (Poker)

In particular, we seem to have been way ahead of the Market on the Novelty TV stuff, consistently getting it in good (beating the price) on X-Factor & SCD.

For those that enjoy the thread, & selectively follow the tips, & like to help make it better, or at least survive a little longer, can we draw any conclusions from that Top 5, & should we be doing anything different?

I'd never have dreamed we could turn a consistent profit (approx 4%) over 4,200 bets & £130,000 wagered, but the Novelty Bets success surprises me even more.

Are the markets badly priced, or are we just blessed with some very perceptive & wise regulars?

ROI on Football and Horses probs should be low as it due to being so popular to bet on, allowing the bookies to get closer to the 'correct' prices.
Would have expected the NFL roi to be higher as we are betting with uk bookies, not the US ones.

Misc is obv the least reliable market for the firms to tissue up, and we got Tal/Chompy! so should be plenty of ricks.

TBH if we are being savvy in our betting we shouldn't really have any losing sports, overall, after this amount of time.

a lot of the NFL is first TD etc, not over/under less juice so that depresses the ROI a bit (unless you bink, which you do less frequently)

on a losing sport like Golf, not sure we have the volume to become statistically significant on finding tournament winners. quite a high variance activity from what i can see

motorsport no spacebar has improved a lot too and on several other losing sports we do much less than we did..partly an affirmative approach to do less where returns are comparatively low

Now you're learning

[rfgqqabc]

One the basis of the (bizarre) lineup Rodgers has put out again tonight I think 13/2 Raheem Sterling is a really, really good bet to score first tonight.

Shame only paddy were open to me at the time. Small top up at with 365 though, might have mis-staked as i missed the two reallys! Good stuff Red.

[icles test]

One the basis of the (bizarre) lineup Rodgers has put out again tonight I think 13/2 Raheem Sterling is a really, really good bet to score first tonight.

gc took it for an interest, cheers

[Peter-27]

One the basis of the (bizarre) lineup Rodgers has put out again tonight I think 13/2 Raheem Sterling is a really, really good bet to score first tonight.

Shame only paddy were open to me at the time. Small top up at with 365 though, might have mis-staked as i missed the two reallys! Good stuff Red.

I got on it! Thanks a lot :-)