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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16333588 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #93405 on: January 03, 2015, 11:56:05 AM »

I think we can have a decent sweat on the FA Cup.  Seems to me the each way value in recent seasons has been premier league teams who are solid midtable outfits, not likely to be involved in relegation or Europa league places, who also have favourable 3rd round draws.

In the last 10 years, Stoke, Pompey, Everton, West Ham and Hull have all reached the final with that profile.  Only Pompey have actually won from this bunch, but the each way odds are attractive.

With that in mind, what are people's views on throwing a few £5 ew darts at:

Swansea at 40-1 (away to Tranmere)
Stoke at 40-1 (home to Wrexham)
Villa at 66-1 (home to Blackpool)

I actually like Stoke the most.  Might do £10 e/w on them.    Not an original idea by any stretch - but worse a discussion I think.

Villa? ughhhhh

Newcastle?

anyway, not much comment on these.

any thoughts on the theory behind the bets? (avoid teams going for top 6, at risk of bottom 3, liable to huge rotation, lack of motivation to win FA Cup)

obviously a deadline of lunchtime ish

Surely Newcastle should be much shorter, now that they no longer have Pardew holding them back...
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« Reply #93406 on: January 03, 2015, 12:03:12 PM »

Would not be mad keen on villa as a side either

However they are a 66_1 shot very easy to be negative about those and they have the plumb draw as dung says

my objection would be they would be looking over their shoulders at bottom 3

when push comes to shove in round 5 and they have (for the sake of argument) burnley away four days after an away cup tie at (for the sake of argument) cardiff, which team is he putting out at cardiff?

this sort of idea was why swansea, stoke, newcastle appealed. not many sides in the division not looking top six or bottom 3, but they are three of them

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TightEnd
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« Reply #93407 on: January 03, 2015, 12:12:29 PM »

The real, 1980s style, averages of 80, Darts starts today doesn't it?

Anyone got any thoughts on the BDO?

--

tikay, as you asked for ideas, my nfl thoughts for the first game tonight were on http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/44

--

does anyone, anywhere, have an FA Cup upset of the day for us?

the weather is filthy, pick us a fancy dan side who won't like it up em in the wet please?
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« Reply #93408 on: January 03, 2015, 12:28:56 PM »

Not sure if it qualifies as an upset but I like to go against sides in contention for promotion in the cup. To my mind opposing Bournemouth at Rotherham is a decent bet today.
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« Reply #93409 on: January 03, 2015, 12:34:31 PM »

Are we on Fred-favourite Dover to beat the part-timers Crystal & Palace, yet, now that the news of King Alan Pardonk's coronation has reached Planet Earth? I hear he's the worst manager ever to manage a thing.
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« Reply #93410 on: January 03, 2015, 12:48:26 PM »

Not sure if it qualifies as an upset but I like to go against sides in contention for promotion in the cup. To my mind opposing Bournemouth at Rotherham is a decent bet today.

Howe will make at least 8/9 changes, but the squad is strong and keen to impress and keep up the current form. Sure he will have a strong bench to call upon.i think Its a tough one to call.

Saying that 3/1 at home could well be value.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2015, 12:55:18 PM by ripple11 » Logged
Tal
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« Reply #93411 on: January 03, 2015, 01:00:01 PM »

Re the Zona-Panthers game, I'm interested in the sacks market.

Shouty Red Man: Over 5.5 @ 6/5
Joe Choral: Under 5.5 @ 11/10

Am I missing anything?

 
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« Reply #93412 on: January 03, 2015, 01:00:46 PM »

Would not be mad keen on villa as a side either

However they are a 66_1 shot very easy to be negative about those and they have the plumb draw as dung says

my objection would be they would be looking over their shoulders at bottom 3

when push comes to shove in round 5 and they have (for the sake of argument) burnley away four days after an away cup tie at (for the sake of argument) cardiff, which team is he putting out at cardiff?

this sort of idea was why swansea, stoke, newcastle appealed. not many sides in the division not looking top six or bottom 3, but they are three of them



West Ham at 40/1?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #93413 on: January 03, 2015, 01:14:07 PM »

rounding up, as i have to pop offline for a bit

this was newportlads's restricted as feared

Event Information:    Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2015-01-03 21:35:00
Market:    Passing Yards - R Lindley
Selection:    Under @ 10/11
Handicap:    +215.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000811
Placed at:    12:35 03/01/2015
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £22.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £22.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £22.00
   
   
   £42.00

-- these are dungbeetle's


    Bet Reference: 685636883
    Single
            England - FA Cup - 2014/15 - Winner
            Stoke City 40/1   
            Each Way: 1/2 1 - 2
        England - FA Cup - 2014/15 - Winner
    Total Stake: (5.00 x 2) 10.00
    Possible Payout (inc. stake) 310.00

Your bet has now been placed
Single

Swansea City40/1Outright - 30/05/2015
Each Way
Stake £10.00
Estimated Return:£310.00
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Return: £310.00

--

pending/ undecided

dover (not sure if serious) 7/1 tomorrow

rotherham (different views) 3/1+ today

west ham (i remember forest away last season, big sam...) 40/1 outright

nfl sacks.
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Tal
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« Reply #93414 on: January 03, 2015, 01:26:16 PM »

In a market that requires marginally more thought, Cardinals are woeful against opposing tight ends and Carolina have one of the best in Greg Olsen.

The Cardinals have allowed a NFL-high 1,085 yards receiving (on 85 rec.) to tight ends this season, along with eight touchdowns. (Athlon Sports)

 Click to see full-size image.


Red Shouty Man says Olsen will get 5.5 receptions and offers 5/4 on the overs. Carolina won't be in need of long passes to Kelvin Benjamin by the end and, with Arizona's offensive woes, having more time with the ball in Cam's hand suggests more low-risk, short passes on third downs to the safest pair of hands in the team. He's had two quiet weeks leading up to this but had been nursing injuries, plus the Panthers barely threw the ball at all last week (16 times total) while destroying the Falcons.

Could be a good spot for an overs bet, methinks. £24 for £30, please.
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Tal
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« Reply #93415 on: January 03, 2015, 01:30:03 PM »

Re the Zona-Panthers game, I'm interested in the sacks market.

Shouty Red Man: Over 5.5 @ 6/5
Joe Choral: Under 5.5 @ 11/10

Am I missing anything?

 

Just to highlight: 93% two horse book, here. We must be able to do something right. Worst case scenario, just get as much as we can on both sides and keep the change.

There can't be half a sack for a team, can there?
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Tal
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« Reply #93416 on: January 03, 2015, 01:56:22 PM »

Oh and sorry, in relation to the Dover tip, not even a little bit serious. Just a gentle prod to the Pardew mob.

Will Palace fans have the signs ready for the game or will they be back at Selhurst for maximum impact?
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« Reply #93417 on: January 03, 2015, 02:04:30 PM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/uk-ireland/aviva-premiership/saracens-v-london-irish/anytime-tryscorer
2pm bully-off.

Geoff Cross is 17/1 with Paddy Power (11/1 best elsewhere) - I don't know how "restricted" tikay is.

It's wet and windy at Saracens and London Irish have a strong line-out which may lead to a prop driving over from short range.

Cross has started 3 games for Irish and scored in two of them.
He's likely to play about 50-55 minutes.
http://www.premiershiprugby.com/matchcentre/fixtures/squads.php?player=4755&includeref=dynamic
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« Reply #93418 on: January 03, 2015, 02:12:03 PM »

Can arrange if Fred wants. Let me know.
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« Reply #93419 on: January 03, 2015, 02:17:36 PM »

Tikay

think we discussed big Mcnulty for Luton before on here

Good article here with him

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/fa-league-cups/steve-mcnulty-shows-vision-matters-more-than-size-ahead-of-cambridge-united-vs-luton-town-in-fa-cup-9954851.html
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