Tips for Tikay

[swinebag22]

The home side, bottom of the league with 4 wins from 18 this season, scored 18 goals, 2nd lowest amount in the league play 5th placed team who have their best points total at this stage of the season ever.

The away side are 7/1/8.6 exchange and the home side are consistently short priced in all their games because they're a 'big club'..

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/bundesliga/dortmund-v-augsburg/winner

When does it end?

Completely agree that Dortmund are a ridic price. Augsberg at 7/1 still feels a bit punty though.

I like Augsberg on the Asian Handicap here. I have had £40 (+1AH) at 2.22 with BMU

Not sure if this is the best route or if the maths are correct (but I have to move now as I won't get a chance later in the day) for this bet so won't recommend it yet. I also notice that +0.5 is best price 7/4, yet you can get 5/1 (9/2 general) for DNB ? what am I missing here?

I personally, like the low variance route of a push with 1 goal defeat

Discussion?

<edit> have also had Augsberg £15 at 5/1 DNB with Betfair. This is a recommend given the differnce between the Asian +0.5

[arbboy]

The home side, bottom of the league with 4 wins from 18 this season, scored 18 goals, 2nd lowest amount in the league play 5th placed team who have their best points total at this stage of the season ever.

The away side are 7/1/8.6 exchange and the home side are consistently short priced in all their games because they're a 'big club'..

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/bundesliga/dortmund-v-augsburg/winner

When does it end?

Completely agree that Dortmund are a ridic price. Augsberg at 7/1 still feels a bit punty though.

I like Augsberg on the Asian Handicap here. I have had £40 (+1AH) at 2.22 with BMU

Not sure if this is the best route or if the maths are correct (but I have to move now as I won't get a chance later in the day) for this bet so won't recommend it yet. I also notice that +0.5 is best price 7/4, yet you can get 5/1 (9/2 general) for DNB ? what am I missing here?

I personally, like the low variance route of a push with 1 goal defeat

Discussion?

<edit> have also had Augsberg £15 at 5/1 DNB with Betfair. This is a recommend given the differnce between the Asian +0.5

+0.5 you win if the game is a draw.  DNB you get your stake back if it's a draw.  That's what you are missing.  Best price on +0.5 is 21/10 if you lay the jolly on bf at 1.47.  This is the reverse price of 1.47 after commission.  You should also get 6/1 DNB on bf once the market tightens closer to the game.

[swinebag22]

The home side, bottom of the league with 4 wins from 18 this season, scored 18 goals, 2nd lowest amount in the league play 5th placed team who have their best points total at this stage of the season ever.

The away side are 7/1/8.6 exchange and the home side are consistently short priced in all their games because they're a 'big club'..

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/bundesliga/dortmund-v-augsburg/winner

When does it end?

Completely agree that Dortmund are a ridic price. Augsberg at 7/1 still feels a bit punty though.

I like Augsberg on the Asian Handicap here. I have had £40 (+1AH) at 2.22 with BMU

Not sure if this is the best route or if the maths are correct (but I have to move now as I won't get a chance later in the day) for this bet so won't recommend it yet. I also notice that +0.5 is best price 7/4, yet you can get 5/1 (9/2 general) for DNB ? what am I missing here?

I personally, like the low variance route of a push with 1 goal defeat

Discussion?

<edit> have also had Augsberg £15 at 5/1 DNB with Betfair. This is a recommend given the differnce between the Asian +0.5

+0.5 you win if the game is a draw.  DNB you get your stake back if it's a draw.  That's what you are missing.  Best price on +0.5 is 21/10 if you lay the jolly on bf at 1.47.  This is the reverse price of 1.47 after commission.  You should also get 6/1 DNB on bf once the market tightens closer to the game.

Duh!! Thanks arb, that's why I work for a living

So you reckon this is best left for the time being? Or just left alone?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £328.84

Outstanding Bets £3690.97

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=19

A loss of £62 yesterday

-£25 No premier league manager to depart before the end of the season. We reckoned without the dehabilitiating effect of knee operations on managers unable to sign players in a transfer window

Click to see full-size image.

-£10 Lara Gut in the skiiing

-£15 Ilshan lost to De Schepper in 3 sets in ATP Mntpellier

-£10 Jodie Kidd, who looked like a newly born giraffe in ski boots when attempting to ski cross, then found herself in the air jump against an Olympic heptathlete. this did not end well, and she was eliminated

Click to see full-size image.

-£2 Louie Spence was also knocked out in the mens jump off

Click to see full-size image.

ongoing positions

one of our BA teams last night, the Portland Trailblazers beat the Utah Jazz 103-102. 25 points from Damian Lilliard

[TightEnd]

Speculative in the extreme, but I wonder if Wayne Parnell has done enough in the last 2 games for force his way into the SAF line up.

5 wickets in 20 overs at 4.7.

Pitches at world cup should suit.

80-1 at Lads.   50-1 elsewhere.

Thoughts?

Steyn
Morkel
Philander
Tahir

then its the balance of the side. Duminy to bowl 10 overs or pick Parnell/Phangiso?

over a possible 9 matches i think you will see the first four play the important matches and the rest get rotated

i doubt Parnell will play the games to get in the hunt. its going to take 18-20 wickets to win it and 12-15 to get placed

 

[TightEnd]

Anyone have any tips on the Cricket World Cup? Seems like a lot of bad pricing in the top batsmen market(Sangakkara, Mathews, Amla to name a few). Imran Tahir seems decently priced in the bowlers market as well.

bad pricing in that they are too short or offer value, in your opinion?

[DungBeetle]

Yes you're probably right.  Relying on an injury or loss of form for Philander I guess.

[TightEnd]

Yes you're probably right.  Relying on an injury or loss of form for Philander I guess.

which could happen. its a six week tournament, injuries are a certainty and form will come and go

how to predict and plan for that, and in particular try to work out who will be rested for matches against the weaker sides (when there are going to be a lot of runs scored (wickets taken) under these regulations, and thus can swing tournament long sub markets considerably) is a big challenge

[TightEnd]

tonyfernandes has confirmed Les Ferdinand has been handed a new role as QPRFC's Director of Football

Hoddle left yesterday

Chris Ramsey and Kevin Bond in temporary charge of first team.

sherwood 2/5 25/1 bar!!

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/qpr/next-permanent-manager

[arbboy]

The home side, bottom of the league with 4 wins from 18 this season, scored 18 goals, 2nd lowest amount in the league play 5th placed team who have their best points total at this stage of the season ever.

The away side are 7/1/8.6 exchange and the home side are consistently short priced in all their games because they're a 'big club'..

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/bundesliga/dortmund-v-augsburg/winner

When does it end?

Completely agree that Dortmund are a ridic price. Augsberg at 7/1 still feels a bit punty though.

I like Augsberg on the Asian Handicap here. I have had £40 (+1AH) at 2.22 with BMU

Not sure if this is the best route or if the maths are correct (but I have to move now as I won't get a chance later in the day) for this bet so won't recommend it yet. I also notice that +0.5 is best price 7/4, yet you can get 5/1 (9/2 general) for DNB ? what am I missing here?

I personally, like the low variance route of a push with 1 goal defeat

Discussion?

<edit> have also had Augsberg £15 at 5/1 DNB with Betfair. This is a recommend given the differnce between the Asian +0.5

+0.5 you win if the game is a draw.  DNB you get your stake back if it's a draw.  That's what you are missing.  Best price on +0.5 is 21/10 if you lay the jolly on bf at 1.47.  This is the reverse price of 1.47 after commission.  You should also get 6/1 DNB on bf once the market tightens closer to the game.

Duh!! Thanks arb, that's why I work for a living

So you reckon this is best left for the time being? Or just left alone?

I have no view/knowledge on the game at all.  All other things being equal, the DNB market is not tight at the minute on betfair (103%) and the dnb price is 5.2/1 now.  So once it tightens to closer to 100% the dnb price should get closer to 6/1.  Obviously commission on top of that to deduct.  It's an easy mistake to make with asian handicaps/dnb prices you ain't the first and you certainly won't be the last to misunderstand them.

[arbboy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/31113011

The harsh reality of the other side of 'professional sport' where it is a job that pays the bills and nothing else.  Interesting thoughts from the youngster.  Fair play to him for following his dreams away from football.  Would be so easy to stay.

[horseplayer]

Hope we got on the Williams suggestion?

on now best price which looks about right needs 4 goals rest of the season to get the lot

[TightEnd]

Hope we got on the Williams suggestion?

on now best price which looks about right needs 4 goals rest of the season to get the lot

no, there was a debate about 3 places or 2 places which i don't think were resolved then the discussion got lost as the thread moved on

completely by accident i failed to get on

[Doobs]

Think we are £25 better in the accounts, Tighty.  The next manager market was a freebie.

Jodie Kidd looked a bit short on practice all the way through, wasn't a good bet.

Think Stevo looks very solid.  Has won everything so far and hopefully can keep Tindall away from the jump off in the final.  

[TightEnd]

Think we are £25 better in the accounts, Tighty.  The next manager market was a freebie.

thanks, it was