Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

that is a shame

The bet was based around Doyle moving maybe i didnt get that across well enough

hope a few regulars got on

[arbboy]

If anyone spots a bet(s) at skybet which is in a reasonably big event (so limits will be reasonably high - i have a clean account before the gags start!), ante post up to May is fine and is obviously bigger price than it should be can they post.  Looking for things to put in disguised doubles and trebles with a skybet rick.  ty in advance.

[TightEnd]

that is a shame

The bet was based around Doyle moving maybe i didnt get that across well enough

hope a few regulars got on

no you did, and so did chompy

down to me but inevitablly especially when the thread was busy a couple a months ago some things get missed.

not a good one to miss

[geoff123]

Brownlow Medal 2015

The Brownlow medal is for the Aussie rules "best and fairest" player over the season and voted for by the umpires of each game. Perennial favourite is the darling of the AFL Gary Ablett who won in 2013, and would probably have won again in 2014 but for injury. Fitness is everything about this game. With the new season looming and teams stepping up their training, Gary is still only in light training and may have another injury prone season. Of the top 15 last season, 14 were midfielders. So who to punt on. I thought Joel Selwood was unlucky not to win last season and may be worth a try at 12/1. Another worthy of an outside bet is Travis Boak at 30/1. Suggest a 5 pound win on each of them.

[TightEnd]

Brownlow Medal 2015

The Brownlow medal is for the Aussie rules "best and fairest" player over the season and voted for by the umpires of each game. Perennial favourite is the darling of the AFL Gary Ablett who won in 2013, and would probably have won again in 2014 but for injury. Fitness is everything about this game. With the new season looming and teams stepping up their training, Gary is still only in light training and may have another injury prone season. Of the top 15 last season, 14 were midfielders. So who to punt on. I thought Joel Selwood was unlucky not to win last season and may be worth a try at 12/1. Another worthy of an outside bet is Travis Boak at 30/1. Suggest a 5 pound win on each of them.

Hi

I did these on the Betfair exchange, my only way of doing it from these outlets

http://www.oddschecker.com/australian-rules/brownlow-medal/winner

Joel Selwood    12    £5.00    £55.00
Ref: 4716129858 Bet placed: 12:30 04-Feb-15
Travis Boak    30    £5.00    £145.00
Ref: 4716129859 Bet placed: 12:30 04-Feb-15




could you please keep us in touch on how the bets are progressing through the season? thanks

[TightEnd]

The home side, bottom of the league with 4 wins from 18 this season, scored 18 goals, 2nd lowest amount in the league play 5th placed team who have their best points total at this stage of the season ever.

The away side are 7/1/8.6 exchange and the home side are consistently short priced in all their games because they're a 'big club'..

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/bundesliga/dortmund-v-augsburg/winner

When does it end?

Completely agree that Dortmund are a ridic price. Augsberg at 7/1 still feels a bit punty though.

I like Augsberg on the Asian Handicap here. I have had £40 (+1AH) at 2.22 with BMU

Not sure if this is the best route or if the maths are correct (but I have to move now as I won't get a chance later in the day) for this bet so won't recommend it yet. I also notice that +0.5 is best price 7/4, yet you can get 5/1 (9/2 general) for DNB ? what am I missing here?

I personally, like the low variance route of a push with 1 goal defeat

Discussion?

<edit> have also had Augsberg £15 at 5/1 DNB with Betfair. This is a recommend given the differnce between the Asian +0.5

+0.5 you win if the game is a draw.  DNB you get your stake back if it's a draw.  That's what you are missing.  Best price on +0.5 is 21/10 if you lay the jolly on bf at 1.47.  This is the reverse price of 1.47 after commission.  You should also get 6/1 DNB on bf once the market tightens closer to the game.

Duh!! Thanks arb, that's why I work for a living

So you reckon this is best left for the time being? Or just left alone?

I have no view/knowledge on the game at all.  All other things being equal, the DNB market is not tight at the minute on betfair (103%) and the dnb price is 5.2/1 now.  So once it tightens to closer to 100% the dnb price should get closer to 6/1.  Obviously commission on top of that to deduct.  It's an easy mistake to make with asian handicaps/dnb prices you ain't the first and you certainly won't be the last to misunderstand them.

here is another view just out

https://betting.betfair.com/football/german-football/bundesliga-betting-previews-tues-03-and-wed-04-february-2015-020215-140.html?rfr=798967&mpch=ads

views seem pretty mixed on backing augsburg on here. watching brief for now

[tikay]

that is a shame

The bet was based around Doyle moving maybe i didnt get that across well enough

hope a few regulars got on

Yes, one of those things John, but I got on, as I got nudged by His Lordship.

Great bet, thank you.

[swinebag22]

3.40 at Chelmsford City has a short favourite and looks to be a decent EW race

Apache Storm 14/1 on spotty bot (12/1 general)
Anonymous john 12/1 most firms

Both seem correctly priced and are not fully proven at this class, but with 1/5 odds 3 places paid, think the EW terms can't be ignored. ( or as Arb says "impossible to have a bad EW bet")

recommend £10 EW on both

[TightEnd]

15:40 ANONYMOUS JOHN (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 12/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  164.00
15:40 APACHE STORM (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 14/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  188.00

e/w 1/5 1,2,3 8 runners

betvictor

[DungBeetle]

It might go against some positions we already have, but I'm starting to see value in a Tory/LibDem coalition at around the 4-1 mark.  Looking at the current projections from Spin (mids)

Tories   283
Labour   279
LibDem   28
UKIP   9
SNP   36

Many doubts about whether SNP actually want a coalition with Labour (and indeed if Labour would want that).  I don't expect UKIP to do as well as this and perhaps 5 of these seats go back to Tories.   The Tories may also experience the "incumbent bounce" in the final month, and current momentum (and press) is definitely against Miliband.

Even with these factors I would be surprised if Tories can get a majority which leaves us with Coalition (or minority I suppose).

If Tories abandon their EU referendum in coalition that will be seen as a big triumph for the Lib Dem grassroots, and there are lots of nice strap lines along the lines of

"5 more years together to finish the job"
"We'll continue to tone down the excess of the Tories as we work with them"

All in all, it seems to me that this scenario plays out a lot more than 20% of the time. 

I think it's about a 3/1 shot.

Thoughts? 

[TightEnd]

It might go against some positions we already have, but I'm starting to see value in a Tory/LibDem coalition at around the 4-1 mark.  Looking at the current projections from Spin (mids)

Tories   283
Labour   279
LibDem   28
UKIP   9
SNP   36

Many doubts about whether SNP actually want a coalition with Labour (and indeed if Labour would want that).  I don't expect UKIP to do as well as this and perhaps 5 of these seats go back to Tories.   The Tories may also experience the "incumbent bounce" in the final month, and current momentum (and press) is definitely against Miliband.

Even with these factors I would be surprised if Tories can get a majority which leaves us with Coalition (or minority I suppose).

If Tories abandon their EU referendum in coalition that will be seen as a big triumph for the Lib Dem grassroots, and there are lots of nice strap lines along the lines of

"5 more years together to finish the job"
"We'll continue to tone down the excess of the Tories as we work with them"

All in all, it seems to me that this scenario plays out a lot more than 20% of the time. 

I think it's about a 3/1 shot.

Thoughts? 

its wide open.

minority government on a confidence and supply basis looks pretty likely to me

9/2 or 5/1 each of five possible governement complexions tells us its wide open

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government

the price SNP will ask of Labour is a second referendum in the life of a parliament?

[arbboy]

It might go against some positions we already have, but I'm starting to see value in a Tory/LibDem coalition at around the 4-1 mark.  Looking at the current projections from Spin (mids)

Tories   283
Labour   279
LibDem   28
UKIP   9
SNP   36

Many doubts about whether SNP actually want a coalition with Labour (and indeed if Labour would want that).  I don't expect UKIP to do as well as this and perhaps 5 of these seats go back to Tories.   The Tories may also experience the "incumbent bounce" in the final month, and current momentum (and press) is definitely against Miliband.

Even with these factors I would be surprised if Tories can get a majority which leaves us with Coalition (or minority I suppose).

If Tories abandon their EU referendum in coalition that will be seen as a big triumph for the Lib Dem grassroots, and there are lots of nice strap lines along the lines of

"5 more years together to finish the job"
"We'll continue to tone down the excess of the Tories as we work with them"

All in all, it seems to me that this scenario plays out a lot more than 20% of the time. 

I think it's about a 3/1 shot.

Thoughts? 

I still think the tories are going to power home and get a majority 11/2 6/1ish looks a big price to me given how bad red ed is.  For the tories to be ahead in the polls already it can only go one way surely and Labour must be close to beat already.  Don't think this will be 6/1 in 2 months time.

Dung - what made you ask the question?  Have you read the 2 page article in the RPost today about the election affecting racing and betting? It's a good read i am currently half way through it.

[DungBeetle]

Have yet to read it Arb - been debating on a Watford forum with the lefties and as I working through the permutations it just seemed to be the most likely outcome so when I checked the odds I was surprised it was 9/2.  On reflection though, minority governments certainly muddy the waters a lot.  Tories may prefer to go that way.

How does the fixed term parliament work in that scenario.  Are Tories allowed to go minority and then have another election in 9 months?  Given they are better funded than the other parties they may find that option attractive.

I agree Labour look like a horse whose jockey is furiously working the whip at the moment though!  Think Ed needs the debates to come around soon - his stock can't get much lower so the debates might give him a bounce if he plays a blinder.

[arbboy]

Have yet to read it Arb - been debating on a Watford forum with the lefties and as I working through the permutations it just seemed to be the most likely outcome so when I checked the odds I was surprised it was 9/2.  On reflection though, minority governments certainly muddy the waters a lot.  Tories may prefer to go that way.

How does the fixed term parliament work in that scenario.  Are Tories allowed to go minority and then have another election in 9 months?  Given they are better funded than the other parties they may find that option attractive.

I agree Labour look like a horse whose jockey is furiously working the whip at the moment though!  Think Ed needs the debates to come around soon - his stock can't get much lower so the debates might give him a bounce if he plays a blinder.

He just doesn't appeal to his core voters.  Labour is just stuffed with champagne socialists like red ed who their core northern vote have nothing in common with imo.

[bookiebasher]

It might go against some positions we already have, but I'm starting to see value in a Tory/LibDem coalition at around the 4-1 mark.  Looking at the current projections from Spin (mids)

Tories   283
Labour   279
LibDem   28
UKIP   9
SNP   36

Many doubts about whether SNP actually want a coalition with Labour (and indeed if Labour would want that).  I don't expect UKIP to do as well as this and perhaps 5 of these seats go back to Tories.   The Tories may also experience the "incumbent bounce" in the final month, and current momentum (and press) is definitely against Miliband.

Even with these factors I would be surprised if Tories can get a majority which leaves us with Coalition (or minority I suppose).

If Tories abandon their EU referendum in coalition that will be seen as a big triumph for the Lib Dem grassroots, and there are lots of nice strap lines along the lines of

"5 more years together to finish the job"
"We'll continue to tone down the excess of the Tories as we work with them"

All in all, it seems to me that this scenario plays out a lot more than 20% of the time. 

I think it's about a 3/1 shot.

Thoughts? 

I still think the tories are going to power home and get a majority 11/2 6/1ish looks a big price to me given how bad red ed is.  For the tories to be ahead in the polls already it can only go one way surely and Labour must be close to beat already.  Don't think this will be 6/1 in 2 months time.

Dung - what made you ask the question?  Have you read the 2 page article in the RPost today about the election affecting racing and betting? It's a good read i am currently half way through it.

Think Tories should be 1-2 to win most seats. Been filling my boots for a few months at odds against and gone in today at 9-10 with bwin . Had a small bet on Tories at 6.8 on betfair overall majority but prefer the 4-5 most seats myself.