Tips for Tikay

[rfgqqabc]

I think there might be a rick on a cricket world cup spread market.  Not sure if there is a fixed odds equivilant.

Without looking, how many runs do you think will be scored over 400 in a single innings during the tournament.  EG if a team scores 420, and then in another game another team gets 410 then total runs over 400 = 20+1 = 30

Some stats to help your estimate.

Scores over 400 have happened 12 times in ODI history.  Highest was 443.   8 of the 12 occasions was 420 or under.

Shoot!

PP have the highest team score at over/under 415

upside: since the new regulations came in two years ago there have been  2 x ODI 200's, and the fastest 100 has been broken twice ( all since 2 new balls and only 4 fielders out rule came in )

downside: the ICC is aware of this and is worried that it has moved the balance too far from ball to bat and announced this week that at all WC matches the boundaries would be 90 metres (in some ODI games boundaries can be 55-70 metres, smaller in T20). Australian, though not NZ so much, grounds are big so this is possible

I was going to have a big bet (for me) on over 24.5 centuries at 5/6 (24 in 2011, 19 in 2007,2003) because the quote did not reflect at all the new regulations they asre playing under until they announced this. it still might come in but its not going to be quite the run fest it was

my WC preview is out this week, and sub-market write up to follow (free to read)

Under 23.5 centuries with Hills (11/10) worth a shout with the rather large extended boundaries?

[DungBeetle]

Not sure it will impact big individual scores, just the rate at which they are scored.  If the pitches are good, with the rules in place players willl still score well I imagine.

[TightEnd]

I think there might be a rick on a cricket world cup spread market.  Not sure if there is a fixed odds equivilant.

Without looking, how many runs do you think will be scored over 400 in a single innings during the tournament.  EG if a team scores 420, and then in another game another team gets 410 then total runs over 400 = 20+1 = 30

Some stats to help your estimate.

Scores over 400 have happened 12 times in ODI history.  Highest was 443.   8 of the 12 occasions was 420 or under.

Shoot!

PP have the highest team score at over/under 415

upside: since the new regulations came in two years ago there have been  2 x ODI 200's, and the fastest 100 has been broken twice ( all since 2 new balls and only 4 fielders out rule came in )

downside: the ICC is aware of this and is worried that it has moved the balance too far from ball to bat and announced this week that at all WC matches the boundaries would be 90 metres (in some ODI games boundaries can be 55-70 metres, smaller in T20). Australian, though not NZ so much, grounds are big so this is possible

I was going to have a big bet (for me) on over 24.5 centuries at 5/6 (24 in 2011, 19 in 2007,2003) because the quote did not reflect at all the new regulations they asre playing under until they announced this. it still might come in but its not going to be quite the run fest it was

my WC preview is out this week, and sub-market write up to follow (free to read)

Under 23.5 centuries with Hills (11/10) worth a shout with the rather large extended boundaries?

it might be, not sure

here are a couple of new things this week that speak to the "debate"

http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci-icc/content/story/826327.html

contains

"What we have done up until now is try and maximize the size of the boundary. You will see for the World Cup, most of the grounds in Australia in particular, which allow for big playing surfaces, boundary ropes will be pushed back to at least 90 yards where possible. "

and in this one "Run-scoring has become just too prodigious to stomach"

http://www.espncricinfo.com/blogs/content/story/826397.html


by the by, if the boundaries are going to be out, it really plays to the likes of Amla and the accumulators scoring comparatively heavily compared to the thrashers like Gayle where a far bigger percentage of their runs are from clearing the rope/flat track bully big hitting

[exstream]

Another where all the information is probably already there but Groningen away to Heracles looks a good bet.
Heracles have lost 14/20 games in the league this season, have lost their last 6. They have also lost their last 6 games to Groningen, with them losing by 2 goals or more the last 5. Is there a point where records in football like that play on the mind of the losing team?

Based on last 6 games, minus 1 handicap worth a bet @ 5.7?
Draw no bet @ evens
Outright win @ 2.76

Unless anyone feels otherwise, £20 outright win, £10 handicap?

i better not miss these in a welter of mixed views that put me off!

Groningen -1 5.72 £10.00 £47.19
Ref: 45972260271 Matched: 16:08 05-Feb-15

Groningen 2.74 £20.00 £34.80
Ref: 45972286545 Submitted: 16:09 05-Feb-15


by the way, do you watch a lot of European football, say the dutch league? I am just thinking out loud that if i can see on oddschecker that heracles have lost their last six and with a few clicks can get up more advanced stats then how is the price not efficient?

i suppose the history of football betting (profitable) on here is that it does not matter, and examples like Augsberg last night, there are different ways of identifiying value than an intricate knowledge gained by watching the teams concerned and knowing their x's and o's.

a bit of late afternoon navel gazing for you

Not personally, a friend whose opinion I trust does and he says they were very impressive in their last match.

The Augsburg, I hadn't discussed with anyone or watched them recently, as you say, the stats were there for everyone to see, all I felt is that Dortmund are still being priced up as a top team, whether that makes for a good opportunity to bet against them each week, I don't know.

[BorntoBubble]

Darts tonight.

We were on the draws last year, and it went well!

But this year it seems the prices have come in, I think possibly to far for them bets to be value this year.

Any thoughts?

[TightEnd]

Darts tonight.

We were on the draws last year, and it went well!

But this year it seems the prices have come in, I think possibly to far for them bets to be value this year.

Any thoughts?

this is what we are on, from arbboy on tuesday

Anderson v Taylor Anderson   6/4   50
Bunting v Wade  draw   7/2   30
barney v lewis    draw 4/1 50

now...

[Tal]

Darts tonight.

We were on the draws last year, and it went well!

But this year it seems the prices have come in, I think possibly to far for them bets to be value this year.

Any thoughts?

this is what we are on, from arbboy on tuesday

Anderson v Taylor Anderson   6/4   50
Bunting v Wade  draw   7/2   30
barney v lewis    draw 4/1 50

If these are good value on their own, why aren't we going for - wait for it - doubles and trebles?

[BorntoBubble]

Darts tonight.

We were on the draws last year, and it went well!

But this year it seems the prices have come in, I think possibly to far for them bets to be value this year.

Any thoughts?

Thats what I did last year, and do with some BE stuff usually, Usually single stake and then a smaller stake for doubles and trebles.

this is what we are on, from arbboy on tuesday

Anderson v Taylor Anderson   6/4   50
Bunting v Wade  draw   7/2   30
barney v lewis    draw 4/1 50

If these are good value on their own, why aren't we going for - wait for it - doubles and trebles?

[nirvana]

Darts tonight.

We were on the draws last year, and it went well!

But this year it seems the prices have come in, I think possibly to far for them bets to be value this year.

Any thoughts?

Yes, 'those bets'

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts/whitewash-in-tournament

This looks an incredible price at first glance.  2/1 any game in the premier league all season ends 7-0.  Haven't done any maths on it at all but my gut feeling is telling me this should be odds on.  There are 80 games first to 7 over the 16 week regular season so 160 chances of a whitewash.  Let's assume in each game the price is 100/1 on average for a white wash for either player so 50/1 a whitewash in any given game.  In a flip game tonight both players are 100/1 to win 7-0 top price on oddschecker.  In blow out games with a big fav like MVG tonight MVG is 30/1 alone to win 7-0.  Overall let's assume it's 50/1 there is a whitewash in any given match.

1/50 therefore not a whitewash.  Put this (1.02) to the power of 80 gives you the price for no whitewash in the whole event (80 team 1/50 acca effectively on no white wash in all 80 games).  Which comes out at just under 4/1 no whitewash.  Making it 2/7 there is a whitewash.  Is my maths right here?  

Even if we adjust each 7-0 to 200/1 from 100/1 and therefore 100/1 any whitewash coupled in any given match the 80 team acca at 1/100 comes to 6/5 so we are getting 2/1 about a 5/6 shot effectively.

For the 2/1 a whitewash to be correct the average price for a white wash in a game would have to be 400/1 per player and 200/1 per match which is too high surely?

We are getting 2/1 about a 2/7 shot?  Seems too good to be true.  My gut instantly told me it should be odds on but not this odds on. Anyone got any thoughts apart from whether betway will pay out if it wins?

[BorntoBubble]

Darts tonight.

We were on the draws last year, and it went well!

But this year it seems the prices have come in, I think possibly to far for them bets to be value this year.

Any thoughts?

Yes, 'those bets'

I dont understand Nirvana can you explain please, long day in work!

[nirvana]

Darts tonight.

We were on the draws last year, and it went well!

But this year it seems the prices have come in, I think possibly to far for them bets to be value this year.

Any thoughts?

Yes, 'those bets'

I dont understand Nirvana can you explain please, long day in work!

Sorry mate, grammar fetish is all

[exstream]

Groningen terrible

[Doobs]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts/whitewash-in-tournament

This looks an incredible price at first glance.  2/1 any game in the premier league all season ends 7-0.  Haven't done any maths on it at all but my gut feeling is telling me this should be odds on.  There are 80 games first to 7 over the 16 week regular season so 160 chances of a whitewash.  Let's assume in each game the price is 100/1 on average for a white wash for either player so 50/1 a whitewash in any given game.  In a flip game tonight both players are 100/1 to win 7-0 top price on oddschecker.  In blow out games with a big fav like MVG tonight MVG is 30/1 alone to win 7-0.  Overall let's assume it's 50/1 there is a whitewash in any given match.

1/50 therefore not a whitewash.  Put this (1.02) to the power of 80 gives you the price for no whitewash in the whole event (80 team 1/50 acca effectively on no white wash in all 80 games).  Which comes out at just under 4/1 no whitewash.  Making it 2/7 there is a whitewash.  Is my maths right here?  

Even if we adjust each 7-0 to 200/1 from 100/1 and therefore 100/1 any whitewash coupled in any given match the 80 team acca at 1/100 comes to 6/5 so we are getting 2/1 about a 5/6 shot effectively.

For the 2/1 a whitewash to be correct the average price for a white wash in a game would have to be 400/1 per player and 200/1 per match which is too high surely?

We are getting 2/1 about a 2/7 shot?  Seems too good to be true.  My gut instantly told me it should be odds on but not this odds on. Anyone got any thoughts apart from whether betway will pay out if it wins?

I think you are just about right.  Think they can claim palp though.

edit.  I just assumed each leg was a flip.  Though whoever has the darts first will swap, as you say you will get others where someone like MVG is the fllowing prices for consecutive legs 1/2, evens, 1/2 etc.  So I don't think assuming each leg is a flip is aggressive.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts/whitewash-in-tournament

This looks an incredible price at first glance.  2/1 any game in the premier league all season ends 7-0.  Haven't done any maths on it at all but my gut feeling is telling me this should be odds on.  There are 80 games first to 7 over the 16 week regular season so 160 chances of a whitewash.  Let's assume in each game the price is 100/1 on average for a white wash for either player so 50/1 a whitewash in any given game.  In a flip game tonight both players are 100/1 to win 7-0 top price on oddschecker.  In blow out games with a big fav like MVG tonight MVG is 30/1 alone to win 7-0.  Overall let's assume it's 50/1 there is a whitewash in any given match.

1/50 therefore not a whitewash.  Put this (1.02) to the power of 80 gives you the price for no whitewash in the whole event (80 team 1/50 acca effectively on no white wash in all 80 games).  Which comes out at just under 4/1 no whitewash.  Making it 2/7 there is a whitewash.  Is my maths right here?  

Even if we adjust each 7-0 to 200/1 from 100/1 and therefore 100/1 any whitewash coupled in any given match the 80 team acca at 1/100 comes to 6/5 so we are getting 2/1 about a 5/6 shot effectively.

For the 2/1 a whitewash to be correct the average price for a white wash in a game would have to be 400/1 per player and 200/1 per match which is too high surely?

We are getting 2/1 about a 2/7 shot?  Seems too good to be true.  My gut instantly told me it should be odds on but not this odds on. Anyone got any thoughts apart from whether betway will pay out if it wins?

I think you are just about right.  Think they can claim palp though.

Palp for what?  Sticking a pin in at betway loltrader towers and saying '2/1 seems about right for a whitewash' and putting it on the website without doing the maths.