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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13527251 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #94830 on: February 05, 2015, 07:54:11 PM »

In a flip game where it is 1/2 2/1 to win leg on your throw the guy throwing first is 135/1 (1.5 to power 4 x 3.0 cubed = 136.0) to win 7-0 assuming each leg is independent.  The guy not throwing first in the first leg is 275/1 to win 7-0. (it isn't imo if you are 6-0 down there is usually a reason you are playing shit and the prices wont be 1/2 2/1 for leg 7 in the same way a player to win the 3rd set in tennis when they are 2-0 up is shorter than the price to win the opening set pre game).  Therefore i think the 100/1 is a fair marker for any player winning 7-0 in the tightest possible match.  
« Last Edit: February 05, 2015, 08:06:37 PM by arbboy » Logged
Tonji
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« Reply #94831 on: February 05, 2015, 08:46:00 PM »

Today's Super G & Bode Miller's come back race after back surgery, not ideal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxbXMcPj18E

don't watch if sqeamish!
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« Reply #94832 on: February 05, 2015, 10:51:22 PM »

Darts tonight.

We were on the draws last year, and it went well!

But this year it seems the prices have come in, I think possibly to far for them bets to be value this year.

Any thoughts?

Thats what I did last year, and do with some BE stuff usually, Usually single stake and then a smaller stake for doubles and trebles.

this is what we are on, from arbboy on tuesday

Anderson v Taylor Anderson   6/4   50
Bunting v Wade  draw   7/2   30
barney v lewis    draw 4/1 50

If these are good value on their own, why aren't we going for - wait for it - doubles and trebles?

2 out of 3

nice draw included!
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« Reply #94833 on: February 05, 2015, 10:54:27 PM »

Darts tonight.

We were on the draws last year, and it went well!

But this year it seems the prices have come in, I think possibly to far for them bets to be value this year.

Any thoughts?

Thats what I did last year, and do with some BE stuff usually, Usually single stake and then a smaller stake for doubles and trebles.

this is what we are on, from arbboy on tuesday

Anderson v Taylor Anderson   6/4   50
Bunting v Wade  draw   7/2   30
barney v lewis    draw 4/1 50

If these are good value on their own, why aren't we going for - wait for it - doubles and trebles?

2 out of 3

nice draw included!

Got very lucky in both winners.  Ando was under the cosh with flu and fell over the line.  Went off over 7/4 on machine on the off. 
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« Reply #94834 on: February 06, 2015, 01:31:49 AM »

Not going to recommend it but Sunderland evens at home to a qpr side who have just lost their manager and have lost EVERY one of their league away games this season.
Sunderland not go off shorter on day? Especially when qpr should lose against Southampton this week.
Sunderlands home results haven't been bad.
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« Reply #94835 on: February 06, 2015, 10:27:18 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £435.84

Outstanding Bets £3590.97

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=19


A profit of £100 yesterday

- Anderson beat Taylor 7-5 on the first night of the PDC Premier League for a profit of £75

- Bunting and Wade drew 6-6 for a profit of £105

- Lewis beat RVB for a loss of £50, winning with an average of 113.84 the highest non-Taylor average in a Premier League tie

 Click to see full-size image.


- Heracles and Groningen drew 2-2 for a loss of £30

ongonig positions  

- Steve O survived another jump off and is through to the last 8 of the Jump, currently 7/2 second favourite behind Tindall who has gone odds-on in places. We are on Mr O at 11/1. Last night we said goodbye to a sporting icon

 Click to see full-size image.


in the NBA a big win for the Portland trailblazers 108-87 against Phoenix

 Click to see full-size image.


Dallas Mavs beat Sacramento 101-78

 Click to see full-size image.


Cleveland beat LA Clippers 105-94 in a battle of two teams where we have positions

This was Cleveland's 12th win on the spin

 Click to see full-size image.


Not exactly fun and games in Equatorial Guinea

 Click to see full-size image.


a big night tonight

 Click to see full-size image.


a big match today in Montpellier for us:

[5] Jerzy Janowicz (POL) v [2] Gilles Simon (FRA)

the beginning of the end?

 Click to see full-size image.


this didn't Bode well

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/winter-sports/31150893









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« Reply #94836 on: February 06, 2015, 10:54:57 AM »



- Anderson beat Taylor 7-5 on the first night of the PDC Premier League for a profit of £75

- Bunting and Wade drew 6-6 for a profit of £105



Oioi, great stuff, well done.

I was working last night, so completely missed the sweat. Bang out of order.
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« Reply #94837 on: February 06, 2015, 12:01:17 PM »

First stage of research for the new season, awaiting some prices but

Baseball

Following on from the success of the 2014 selections which won just under £1000 for Tft, two for the new season

MLB Pre-season training begins this week

My knowledge is much better in the AL than the NL because the teams and divisions i know are American league, which is extremely competitive but lacks a dominant team

1. Chicago White Sox

(disclaimer, i have been a fan for over 20 years and follow them closely)

They have been rebuilding for several years, and last year their payroll fell to 18th in the MLB as they ditched expensive contracts and veteran players left

This gave them the firepower to recruit heavily this off-season

Already the team had a top pitcher in Chris Sale, and they recruited Samardzija. With top draft pick Rodon to come the pitching is going to be much improved. Add Quintana and you have 4 of the 5 man rotation there and ready, and looking extremely promising

"a deal that would send Jeff Samardzija to the South Side -- a trade that would solve Chicago's starting rotation problem, shake up the AL Central and set in motion one of the most impressive offseason makeovers of recent winters."

that is from:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/01/30/white-sox-offseason-rick-hahn-jeff-samardzija-david-robertson

which summarises it better than i could do

They re-tooled their bullpen with relievers and closers, notably Robertson who closed for the Yankees last season

They recruited in infield and outfield, notably via Melky Cabrera for left field

"No team, though, has improved itself more since the end of last season than the White Sox. Having added a top of the rotation starter in his prime (Samardzija), an elite closer (Robertson), an underrated lefty reliever (Zach Duke), an All-Star outfielder (Cabrera), and a grizzled slugger who’s a perfect fit for their ballpark (Adam LaRoche), the White Sox are positioned for a run in 2015, and for the foreseeable future. Asked what AL team has upgraded its roster the most, a rival AL executive said, “I think the White Sox. And in that division, where the Tigers may be taking a step back a little, there’s an opportunity.”"

Finished 18 games behind in the AL Central last season but adding these new pieces to a roster including last year's rookie of the year Abreu they should be right up there, hitting deeper through the otrder, pitching depth and better defense

Little of this is factored into prices. Part of this will be their division, much like for the Royals last year it contains the powerful Tigers . Part of this is summarised i n the article above

"The leap from a 73-win season to a postseason appearance is a big one. And early projections are skeptical that the White Sox can even get to .500: Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA peg them as a 78-win club."

However all of the above (better hitting depth, better pitching depth and some defense) should put them right in the hunt for the division and merely not making the mistakes that lost them games last year in my opinion will get them from 73 to well north of 80 wins needing around 90 to scoop, and from there who knows

"Confident enough that a case could be made for the White Sox jumping from 63 wins in 2013 to 73 wins in '14 to the playoffs this season.

"I don't want to sit here and read the future."  White Sox ace Chris Sale told MLB.com prior to last weekend's SoxFest activities. "But Rick put us in the position to do that. That's what all this is about, is winning a championship."

"What's coming into my mind is we were in a difficult spot the last two years, and we've been pulled out of that spot, and now the playing field has been leveled off a whole lot more," White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper said. "We're a better-looking team.""

2. Boston Red Sox

2014 was a down year, finishing way behind the Orioles in the AL East and finishing last after winning the WS the year before

The Boston Red Sox moved quickly in November to sign the best two free agent position players available in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. The Red Sox were terrible run production last season, tying for 11th among the AL's 15 teams with 3.91 runs per game and getting the two biggest free agent bats is the attempt to put some pop into the line up

Injuries affected Boston's big hitters last season too. Pedroia, Napoli and Ortiz, if healthy should add to the new signings and produce one of the most powerful lineups in baseball.

The starting rotation lost Jon Lester but added Justin Masterson, Rick Porcello and Wade Miley. young starting pitchers with potential

They are probably one top of the rotation pitcher short of a side that can run at the title, but that is easily fixable via trade if they are looking to be in contention at mid-season especially as this is one of the big market big payroll teams that has shown before it will invest if they are in the hunt

Recommendations


My aim is to have a book of the two teams, weighted towards the White Sox

phase 1 Biggest bets on the division

phase 2 smaller bets on the American league

phase 3 smaller again bets on the World Series


- I am waiting for divisional prices

Hoping the White Sox will be around 7/2 third favourites behind Tigers and Royals

Hoping the Red Sox price allows something to go at. It is the most competitive division year in year out with the Yankees, Rays etc so i won't be taking anything too short


- American league outright

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league/winner

Red Sox 11/2 White Sox 14/1


- World Series

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/winner

Red Sox 16-1 White Sox 40-1

As a big market high profile big spending team there is less juice in the Red Sox price.



I will update as the markets form properly
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« Reply #94838 on: February 06, 2015, 12:21:25 PM »



Lovely piece on the Baseball Rich, & I'm keen we get involved.

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« Reply #94839 on: February 06, 2015, 01:26:33 PM »

Some questions for the weekend please


- the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury

11/2 the field paying 5 places

anybody want to work the race out?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-02-07-newbury/15:35/winner


- any football ideas, premier league or elsewhere?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league

Palace over 2/1 to win?

Chelsea 1.7 to win to nil at goal-shy Villa?

Bournemouth above evens at Wigan?

Fleetwood 8/5 at home to inconsistent Peterborough

just a few i have seen mentioned

--

six nations

England +5 tonight?

Wales 13/8 to win by 1-12 looked worth a look to me

www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/wales-v-england/winning-margin

Scotland +10 tomorrow?

--


ideas on these or anything else welcome
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« Reply #94840 on: February 06, 2015, 01:39:54 PM »

Bump

Any views on the BAFTA for Outstanding British Film?

Imitation Game         10/11
Theory of Everything 5/4
Pride                            12/1
71                                  25/1
Under the Skin            33/1
Paddington                 40/1

Seems reasonable to call this a two horse race between the the film with guy who played Stephen Hawking on TV and the film with the guy who is playing him in a film.

The best actor nod is Cumberbatch's fifth nomination by BAFTA, although his first for a film. He has been unsuccessful on his previous four and he won't be beating Redmayne/Keaton this year. The film itself has had some criticism for its rather liberal recounting of events, when the truth of the Alan Turing story was as shocking and astonishing a story as could be told.

Must admit I'd love The Theory of Everything to win this. Any views here?
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« Reply #94841 on: February 06, 2015, 01:42:33 PM »

Bump

Any views on the BAFTA for Outstanding British Film?

Imitation Game         10/11
Theory of Everything 5/4
Pride                            12/1
71                                  25/1
Under the Skin            33/1
Paddington                 40/1

Seems reasonable to call this a two horse race between the the film with guy who played Stephen Hawking on TV and the film with the guy who is playing him in a film.

The best actor nod is Cumberbatch's fifth nomination by BAFTA, although his first for a film. He has been unsuccessful on his previous four and he won't be beating Redmayne/Keaton this year. The film itself has had some criticism for its rather liberal recounting of events, when the truth of the Alan Turing story was as shocking and astonishing a story as could be told.

Must admit I'd love The Theory of Everything to win this. Any views here?

seen both, liked both

no reason to my mind why Theory should be underdog, but i am a film ice-cream, not a voting expert.

nothing to tell me it isn't a two horse race either
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« Reply #94842 on: February 06, 2015, 03:08:01 PM »

ref bookiebasher from a few days ago and our LDs <33 ans 21-33 seat bets

"LAB now 9 seats behind (up from 6) on SportingIndex http://goo.gl/0sfA2E seat mid-points

CON 284

LAB 275

 LD 27

UKIP 8.5

SNP 36.5"
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« Reply #94843 on: February 06, 2015, 03:08:06 PM »

Janowicz wins in straight sets 6 - 2     7 - 5



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« Reply #94844 on: February 06, 2015, 03:09:58 PM »

Janowicz wins in straight sets 6 - 2     7 - 5





great news

http://www.atpworldtour.com/share/event-draws.aspx?year=2015&eventid=375&draw=ms

he is now in the semis to play Kohlschrieber or Sousa

one win away from a return

ATP Montpellier   Janocwicz   12/1   20   £10 e/w 1/2 1,2
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