Tips for Tikay

[McGlashan]

Darts people, is MVG backable at evens against Gary Anderson?

He didn't come near hitting that price at all last season and he handily beat Anderson at the weekend. If Fred can get on it's 11/10 with SB.

[Tal]

McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup.

12/1 with BMU, Billy Mountain and the Red Shouty Man.

Same principle as the National?

[Doobs]

McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup.

12/1 with BMU, Billy Mountain and the Red Shouty Man.

Same principle as the National?

If you are backing to lay you should definitely be starting on Betfair at 13.5.  

Should have added that the price is near the same after commission, but if you bail out whilst it is an ante post market you only pay commission on the difference. 

[Tal]

McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup.

12/1 with BMU, Billy Mountain and the Red Shouty Man.

Same principle as the National?

If you are backing to lay you should definitely be starting on Betfair at 13.5.  

What's realistic here, doobs?

Punter money is going to be on the names at the top of the market, too. Feels like it isn't as clear as the National in that respect, but it's hardly likely to go out from 13.5 unless he or the horse gets injured (NRNB doesn't apply to the exchange does it? If no, shouldn't we go with the bookies?)

If people think we can lay it off at 8/1, that makes £450 off a £100 stake, less commission. 10/1 for £250 and so on.

Just putting it up for discussion.


(Edit: have seen your edit now )

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £448.76

Outstanding Bets £3656.97

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=19

No bets completed yesterday

We have a bet on Basel to win the Champions League at 250-1

they drew the first leg of their last 16 tie at home to Porto 1-1, with 30% of the possession at home and 1 chance to 15 from the away side. Tey are out to 400-1 in the outrights

Click to see full-size image.

Middlesborough, playing much of the game at Birmingham with 10 men went to the top of the Championship with a 1-1 draw. Patrick Bamford scored the goal, to go to 11 for the season one behind penalty taker Leadbitter. We have 6-1 Bamford to be top Middlesborough scorer this season

Click to see full-size image.

in NCAA basketball Duke beat North Carolina 92-90 in overtime to go to 23-3 for the season, and four games left ahead of the divisional championships and March Madness 

As I am sure you will have already seen from reading the local paper, it sounded like a good one

http://www.dukechronicle.com/articles/2015/02/19/instant-classic-tyus-jones-fuels-comeback-duke-basketball-tops-north-carolina-92-90-overtime#.VOWxgiw8rOg



there is a new Ryder cup captain



poker player beats Ronnie in Cardiff

Click to see full-size image.

tonight

Premier League darts week 3 in Lverpool

England play New Zealand in the CWC at the Caketin in Wellington

The Europa league is back

Troicki plays Tomic at ATP Delray Beach

[hector62]

Morning Tighty.

I am guessing that Bopara is not going to play tonight. I see that Butler is 19-1 to be top bat for England tonight with Paddy Power. Anyone fancy putting a fiver on for Fred?

In the Delray Beach tennis Anderson, the new top seed after Isner lost, became the ex-top seed when he lost last night.

[TightEnd]

McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup.

12/1 with BMU, Billy Mountain and the Red Shouty Man.

Same principle as the National?

If you are backing to lay you should definitely be starting on Betfair at 13.5. 

What's realistic here, doobs?

Punter money is going to be on the names at the top of the market, too. Feels like it isn't as clear as the National in that respect, but it's hardly likely to go out from 13.5 unless he or the horse gets injured (NRNB doesn't apply to the exchange does it? If no, shouldn't we go with the bookies?)

If people think we can lay it off at 8/1, that makes £450 off a £100 stake, less commission. 10/1 for £250 and so on.

Just putting it up for discussion.


(Edit: have seen your edit now )

what is the suggestion?

back it on Betfair as a definite back to lay on the day? (usually there is a collapse in favourite prices on the day iirc)

how much?

[Tal]

McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup.

12/1 with BMU, Billy Mountain and the Red Shouty Man.

Same principle as the National?

If you are backing to lay you should definitely be starting on Betfair at 13.5. 

What's realistic here, doobs?

Punter money is going to be on the names at the top of the market, too. Feels like it isn't as clear as the National in that respect, but it's hardly likely to go out from 13.5 unless he or the horse gets injured (NRNB doesn't apply to the exchange does it? If no, shouldn't we go with the bookies?)

If people think we can lay it off at 8/1, that makes £450 off a £100 stake, less commission. 10/1 for £250 and so on.

Just putting it up for discussion.


(Edit: have seen your edit now )

what is the suggestion?

back it on Betfair as a definite back to lay on the day? (usually there is a collapse in favourite prices on the day iirc)

how much?

That is the suggestion but it is only that because I'm hoping for horse folk to offer guidance.

Back to lay is the suggestion.

[nuros]

Morning Tighty.

I am guessing that Bopara is not going to play tonight. I see that Butler is 19-1 to be top bat for England tonight with Paddy Power. Anyone fancy putting a fiver on for Fred?

In the Delray Beach tennis Anderson, the new top seed after Isner lost, became the ex-top seed when he lost last night.

I can place 5 on pp for Fred if wanted, as soon as this is confirmed I'll place assuming the odds haven't dropped!

[TightEnd]

Morning Tighty.

I am guessing that Bopara is not going to play tonight. I see that Butler is 19-1 to be top bat for England tonight with Paddy Power. Anyone fancy putting a fiver on for Fred?

In the Delray Beach tennis Anderson, the new top seed after Isner lost, became the ex-top seed when he lost last night.

I can place 5 on pp for Fred if wanted, as soon as this is confirmed I'll place assuming the odds haven't dropped!

go ahead please

[TightEnd]

Darts people, is MVG backable at evens against Gary Anderson?

He didn't come near hitting that price at all last season and he handily beat Anderson at the weekend. If Fred can get on it's 11/10 with SB.

any further thoughts on this please?

http://www.sportinglife.com/darts/news/article/10310/9719017/darts-michael-van-gerwen-has-an-ominous-warning-for-his-rivals-he-wants-to-play-better-and-better-every-week

just published, refers

unfortunately he is into 10/11 it seems

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/michael-van-gerwen-v-gary-anderson/winner

[Doobs]

McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup.

12/1 with BMU, Billy Mountain and the Red Shouty Man.

Same principle as the National?

If you are backing to lay you should definitely be starting on Betfair at 13.5. 

What's realistic here, doobs?

Punter money is going to be on the names at the top of the market, too. Feels like it isn't as clear as the National in that respect, but it's hardly likely to go out from 13.5 unless he or the horse gets injured (NRNB doesn't apply to the exchange does it? If no, shouldn't we go with the bookies?)

If people think we can lay it off at 8/1, that makes £450 off a £100 stake, less commission. 10/1 for £250 and so on.

Just putting it up for discussion.


(Edit: have seen your edit now )

what is the suggestion?

back it on Betfair as a definite back to lay on the day? (usually there is a collapse in favourite prices on the day iirc)

how much?

That is the suggestion but it is only that because I'm hoping for horse folk to offer guidance.

Back to lay is the suggestion.

There is going to be less mug money in the Gold Cup.  If you go the Betfair route there is going to be two different markets.  Ante post and on the day.  If you open a position in the ante post market to benefit from netting off you need to close before the market disappears.  So you can't open today and close it on the day of the race and hope Betfair net off your commission. 

[doubleup]

McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup.

12/1 with BMU, Billy Mountain and the Red Shouty Man.

Same principle as the National?

If you are backing to lay you should definitely be starting on Betfair at 13.5. 

What's realistic here, doobs?

Punter money is going to be on the names at the top of the market, too. Feels like it isn't as clear as the National in that respect, but it's hardly likely to go out from 13.5 unless he or the horse gets injured (NRNB doesn't apply to the exchange does it? If no, shouldn't we go with the bookies?)

If people think we can lay it off at 8/1, that makes £450 off a £100 stake, less commission. 10/1 for £250 and so on.

Just putting it up for discussion.


(Edit: have seen your edit now )

what is the suggestion?

back it on Betfair as a definite back to lay on the day? (usually there is a collapse in favourite prices on the day iirc)

how much?

That is the suggestion but it is only that because I'm hoping for horse folk to offer guidance.

Back to lay is the suggestion.

If you back at 12.5-1 and lay at 9-1 for the same stake you only win when the horse wins.  So your actual EV is £35 not £350.

[arbboy]

McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup.

12/1 with BMU, Billy Mountain and the Red Shouty Man.

Same principle as the National?

If you are backing to lay you should definitely be starting on Betfair at 13.5. 

What's realistic here, doobs?

Punter money is going to be on the names at the top of the market, too. Feels like it isn't as clear as the National in that respect, but it's hardly likely to go out from 13.5 unless he or the horse gets injured (NRNB doesn't apply to the exchange does it? If no, shouldn't we go with the bookies?)

If people think we can lay it off at 8/1, that makes £450 off a £100 stake, less commission. 10/1 for £250 and so on.

Just putting it up for discussion.


(Edit: have seen your edit now )

what is the suggestion?

back it on Betfair as a definite back to lay on the day? (usually there is a collapse in favourite prices on the day iirc)

how much?

That is the suggestion but it is only that because I'm hoping for horse folk to offer guidance.

Back to lay is the suggestion.

There is going to be less mug money in the Gold Cup.  If you go the Betfair route there is going to be two different markets.  Ante post and on the day.  If you open a position in the ante post market to benefit from netting off you need to close before the market disappears.  So you can't open today and close it on the day of the race and hope Betfair net off your commission. 

I thought they usually netted off commission on big ante post markets like this against day of the race markets?

[nuros]

Morning Tighty.

I am guessing that Bopara is not going to play tonight. I see that Butler is 19-1 to be top bat for England tonight with Paddy Power. Anyone fancy putting a fiver on for Fred?

In the Delray Beach tennis Anderson, the new top seed after Isner lost, became the ex-top seed when he lost last night.

I can place 5 on pp for Fred if wanted, as soon as this is confirmed I'll place assuming the odds haven't dropped!

go ahead please

Ah sorry just read this and tried to place but odds have dropped to 14/1, still best price, still want? I guess it depends on hectors say!