Tips for Tikay

[Larry David]

The other option is place the £10 on Azarenka next week 10/1 and lay off in the final at 4/6

[doubleup]

I had a free £100 last weekend, usually place these on the football markets, the markets they welcome you to place your hard earned on.

£100@ 5/2 (draw)  £250 potential returns -£100 free bet
Lay draw 3.5 exchange for £185  £70 potential return after commission  

The top one came up so £65 profit, £67.50 either way if you wanted to level off exactly.

As sonour says, higher odds the better, they want you to go for the 1-2 bet which plays right into their hands.

£65 profit from a £100 free bet is miserable, you should be aiming for minimum 80% equity.

Mess about with this calculator

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/freebets.html

[Larry David]

from odds of 5/2 that is the best you will get, don't want any other accounts closed.  Obviously if you choose bigger odds you will have more reward, nothing wrong with £65 for doing nothing.

[rfgqqabc]

free bet "hypothetical" question

The agreed method to get value from free bets is to find a longish price that is quite close to the best price.  But as we know these can sometimes be a bit difficult to find.

If you find a pretty big arb at a low price, whats the best way to take advantage?  Just take the guaranteed profit or gamble for a bit more equity?

egs free bet on at 3-1 and can be laid at 5/2

If you do back £10 at 3-1 and lay at 5/2, you get £5 if the selection wins and £10 if it loses.  If we assume that it wins 30% of the time that's 70% of £10 + 30% of £5 = £8.50 equity from the £10 bet.  However, we are guaranteed £5.

If we decide to lay for a stake of £12, we win nothing if it wins but £12 if it loses.  So only £8.40 equity with no guarantee
N
If we lay to a stake of £6, we win £15 if it wins and £6 if it loses.  That's  £8.70 equity with £6 guarantee.

Also obv you could just let the bet run which would on the face of it be £9 equity, but no guaranteed return.

(nb commission would be deducted from the exchange side but just discussing the general principle)

Anyone have thoughts Doobs?  Arbhoy?

Don't do the low price arb with the free bet. Do the arb with your own money and use the free bet at high odds.

Fair point, but it can sometimes be difficult to find a good free bet at high odds before it expires.  

85%+ equity from the free bet is pretty good, tho not so good I suppose if you choose to deduct arb equity that you could've got with your own money.

yeah and rfgqqabc I was thinking how to you value guaranteed funds.  The whole point about arbing anything is that you are usually giving up a bit of equity for no risk money you can use.

Whilst you can't spend skalansky bucks I don't think the guarantee should matter too much unless it's a decent chunk of your br. I suppose there are some future returns on the guaranteed £ to factor in and slightly less stress if it's your long term strategy. I think time it takes might be a decent factor. Ie if it was cash instantly freed up we can use again it etc. I don't think k you want to regularly be giving up much equity at all if possible though.

[Larry David]

I would also add if you are going to debate for hours on how to make 5-10% extra on a free bet and then go and have a first goalscorer bet at the weekend you may as well just donate it to charity

[doubleup]

from odds of 5/2 that is the best you will get, don't want any other accounts closed.  Obviously if you choose bigger odds you will have more reward, nothing wrong with £65 for doing nothing.

Having a problem using a £100 free bet is a valid issue.  Something to consider when you take up the original offer that leads to the free bet.  

[sonour]

I saw in the t & c's of one bookmaker today :-

The free bet must be bet at odds of 1.5 or above

Lol. Whoever came up with that. What they should want is you to bet your free bet at odds below 1.5.

Winner have got it right, they don't let you use your free bet on odds higher than 10/1.

[Larry David]

from odds of 5/2 that is the best you will get, don't want any other accounts closed.  Obviously if you choose bigger odds you will have more reward, nothing wrong with £65 for doing nothing.

Having a problem using a £100 free bet is a valid issue.  Something to consider when you take up the original offer that leads to the free bet.  

I only opened the account as they were going best price on a NBA market, I wasn't arbing the original bet, I wanted £100 on my selection with or without a £100 free bet, then placed the free bet on the above. I have placed these free bets in the past at bigger odds and haven't been able to place a bet again,stuck it on a football draw in a popular market.

[DropTheHammer]

Re free bets I normally just try to turn them back into cash by finding a horse which is the standout price of the bookie in question (all others have it shorter) and just lay it back on BF. Today I got very lucky backing Moon Racer with a free bet at 10.0 yesterday and it today had shortened to 7.0 when I laid it back, leaving me a nice £100 freeroll if it won too, even after the rule 4  

So the Coral free £5 Ruby Walsh bets I'd like to turn into cash I have backed Run Ructions Run (2.05 tomorrow) at 26 and will look to lay at 22 when the Corals price goes.

[TightEnd]

Thursday at Cheltenham has 6 races

it doesn't look much easier than today, where we made a small profit


race 1 the JLT

Vautour is the 2/1 favourite. We are on, effectively, at 9/2 from a while back

9 runners, only 4 below 10/1

3 places 1/4 e/w

i expect this to be quite an attractive race for e/w punters

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/13:30/winner


race 2 the Pertemps

a 24 runner hurdle, pays 5 places

8-1 the field and if you would like a pin, you can stick it for me

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/14:05/winner


race 3 ryanair

14 runners

only pays 3 places

ma filleule has been mentioned a lot on here in the run up to the race, we backed her last time out and missed a price for this

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/14:40/winner


race 4 the world hurdle

17 runners, pays 4 places

zarkandar and saphir de rheu at 5-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/15:20/winner


race 5 the festival plate

24 runners pays 5 places

7-1 the field over one lap of the chase track

i'll have that pin back please

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/16:00/winner


race 6 the kim muir

24 amateur riders, 10-1 the field

only 4 places everywhere

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/16:40/winner




advance warning: i am keeping stakes small, i think

just looks tough



of course all ideas welcomed though

[Tonibell]

Best use of free bets has been answered before. I know this because I saved it. Can't remember who it was though.

there are so many easy spots to convert free bets into cash if u willing to tie up the cash laying them at the same price or slightly under on bf.  Fred shouldn't ever be taking under 20/1 really for a free bet.  Golfers every week are available to back and lay at the same price on bf as with firms.  It convents the free bets into actual cash with 95%+ conversion rate without the worry of variance.

(Pretty sure it was Arbboy).

[Marky147]

Those are all mine, which would be ones to avoid so far


JLT Novices Chase

1pt  @ 40/1 The Tullow Tank



Pertemps Final

2pts @ 14/1 Brother Brian   
1pt  @ 25/1 Trustan Times   



Ryanair Chase

2pts  @ 25/1 Ma Filleule      
2pts  @ 16/1 Taquin De Seuil   



World Hurdle

3pts @ 16/1 Un Temps Pour Tout 
3pts @ 14/1 Saphir De Rheu   
1pt  @ 40/1 See You At Midnight


Byrne Group Plate

2pts  @ 20/1 Tango De Juilley   
1pt   @ 33/1 Gold Bullet   



Kim Muir Challenge Cup

2pts  @ 20/1 Gold Bullet      

[BorntoBubble]

I would also add if you are going to debate for hours on how to make 5-10% extra on a free bet and then go and have a first goalscorer bet at the weekend you may as well just donate it to charity

Larry, your pretty new to the thread and im not sure if your intending to be your posts are coming across quite arrogant. You got into a row with ArgueBoy but everyone has at some point, we love him for it he gives away a lot of free very good advice but sometimes you may have to filter that out of 3 lines of argument. Anyway.

We have debated long and hard for as long as I can remember about free bets, trying to optimise etc and i like to think we strike a good balance for a thread that is after all for fun. We try and find the best possible bets without Tighty or Tikay having to spend all day on oddschecker or betfair and without Tikay having to tie up some of hard earned model train set money on betfair for weeks or months. Tikay has stressed many times he has no intention of keeping 4/5 figs in betfair which is more than understandable.

Having jibe's at people's bets also is not what we are about, this thread is about constructive criticism and anyone that looks at any aspect of betting and thinks there is no way I can get an edge probably has not been in the game for long enough. Bookies make mistakes, bookies follow trends/money that may not always be shrewd money. Liquid markets are beatable, things like the premier league etc they can be beaten with the right bets. Just because books are tight and liquid does not necessarily mean they are 100% right and the really shrewd one's can pick their moments.

There are many ways FGS bets can be good value from, backing each way on 3.65 to having some team selection news that the markets have not adjusted to yet.

Way back when goals galore came out with Betfred many "Shrewdies" wrote it off as a no hoper in terms of value, but after studying and other bookmakers coming along for the ride angles were found etc etc.

There are a lot of very shrewd guys in this thread that spark great debate, often i just sit back and read and leave them to it. They are giving away vital information for free.

Keep posting and keep contributing we love new members but we dont want anymore people leaving because of abuse!!!

Good luck with your bets!!

[BorntoBubble]

Also everytime i read your name it reminds me of this which is one of my favourite TV shows. So dont be going anywhere!

[doubleup]

Best use of free bets has been answered before. I know this because I saved it. Can't remember who it was though.

there are so many easy spots to convert free bets into cash if u willing to tie up the cash laying them at the same price or slightly under on bf.  Fred shouldn't ever be taking under 20/1 really for a free bet.  Golfers every week are available to back and lay at the same price on bf as with firms.  It convents the free bets into actual cash with 95%+ conversion rate without the worry of variance.

(Pretty sure it was Arbboy).

yeah we know the standard method  

The debate we are having atm is what to do with large free bets that the books won't accept at long odds and whether it is worth taking a shorter odds arb to convert 85% of the bet into cash.  Arbhoy's golf method actually converts about to about 90% equity after commission, but you have to find the good price at your free bet bookie AND they have to accept the bet - probably ok for £25 but a bit more difficult for £50 or £100.