Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The County looks a bit of a nightmare, going to have to quit.  I really want to back Aux Ptits Soins, but can't get on at 9/1 and get 5 places, so will just have to look in the morning.

The Champion Chase is much nicer.  With the issues around Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre, I think we should definitely back Champagne  Fever each way given how valuable the place part is.  He also has a v good Cheltenham record.  Suggest we up the stakes and go £40 each way with Hills mobile (5/1 best price).

I might also try and get 10/1 Mr Mole each way in the morning (can only get PP right now)

I have got 15 e/w on aux ptits soins at 10/1 5 places if fred wants it.  French horse unexposed.  Looks good in what is a bit of a lottery.  If you want it let me know.

Tighty,

For the spready records, Doobs has sent me the £187.50 for this. (It was on credit, not paid on).

Doobs - thank you.

[neeko]

Have to say, I'm very disappointed with the range of pre-season markets this year - was much better last season. Not sure why that is ..

Anyway, one more pre-season bet:

Marcus Ericsson - To Finish At Least 1 GP In Top 8 During The Season Betting Odds: Yes at 16/11 with 888 and Unibet. The Sauber didn't look horrendous in pre-season testing - they have definitely taken a step forward compared to last season, would be surprised if this doesn't happen at least once this year. It's even more likely at the start of the season with McLaren and Force India still to get up to pace. Suggest £20-£30.

As for Australian GP bets, found A LOT of value spots:

Bwin   - Australian GP - Podium Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 16/1 - £ 5.00 - Quick driver, now in a half decent car, 16/1 is just too high when Ricciardo is 7/2!
Stan James    - Australian GP - Points Finish - Max Verstappen - 3/1 - £ 10.00*** - Toro Rosso should be fighting for points this race, Verstappen looked strong in testing.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Top Six Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 2/1 - £ 10.00*** - Same as bet #1.
Stan James    - Australian GP - Practice One Winner - Valtteri Bottas - 18/1 - £ 5.00 - 18/1 is too high given that Mercedes may well not want to "show their hand" in FP1.
Bwin   - Australian GP - McLaren Total Finishers - 0 - 45/17 - £ 20.00*** - Extremely unreliable in pre-season testing, this price is mad.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Force India Total Finishers - 2 - 19/20 - £ 15.00 - Bullet proof. Should happen if Nico & Sergio avoid a crash.

I put *** next to the top three, just in case you didn't want to invest too much money. For the Stan James ones (I know TFT can't get on there), check oddschecker - sometimes there were equivalent prices available elsewhere.

Additionally, there is an interesting bet that I personally haven't placed - but if you have a big balance, you should get on it:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/mclaren-double-points-finish - NO at 1/4!! Low price, but still FAR too high. McLaren is off the pace and unreliable. This should be more like 1/10. Would suggest a lump here!

I like the mclaren 0 points and force India bets, but would hold off on Erricson until we find out if G van der Garde takes his seat after his win in court this morning.

[Doobs]

If anyone is still up and loves a plot horse, Monetaire is interesting in the 5th race.  It has come over from France where it seems to have run in decent races, then had a sighter, afterwards started at 2/1 in the next and won fairly well there.

Now it appears at the bottom of a handicap at Cheltenham.  B365 are still going 7/1 and 5 places .  Can't see it there in the morning.

Thanks for this, & the other suggestions, Doobs.

As at 0630 this morning, BetEveryDay still go 7/1 Monetaire.

Tighty - to save you looking, Fred can get a Max of £7.14 on this. They'd allow us £7.14 win, or £7.14 EW, so if you think we should get on, may as well do it EW to get a bit more value.

If I felt very strongly about it I would have offered to get some on.  Could have done with another point or two.  Definitely not a terrible bet though if you got your 7 e/w on. 

[Doobs]

Vautour is 3/1 coral right now

[tikay]

If anyone is still up and loves a plot horse, Monetaire is interesting in the 5th race.  It has come over from France where it seems to have run in decent races, then had a sighter, afterwards started at 2/1 in the next and won fairly well there.

Now it appears at the bottom of a handicap at Cheltenham.  B365 are still going 7/1 and 5 places .  Can't see it there in the morning.

Thanks for this, & the other suggestions, Doobs.

As at 0630 this morning, BetEveryDay still go 7/1 Monetaire.

Tighty - to save you looking, Fred can get a Max of £7.14 on this. They'd allow us £7.14 win, or £7.14 EW, so if you think we should get on, may as well do it EW to get a bit more value.

If I felt very strongly about it I would have offered to get some on.  Could have done with another point or two.  Definitely not a terrible bet though if you got your 7 e/w on. 

I never made the bet, no, left that to Tighty, as we get crossed wires if we both place bets.

Think he is throttling back on the bet sizes (but noit quantity) right now, as we seem to have been burning money this week. That's wrong, of course, completely so, but he's spending someone else's money, & I've had to make a few Deposits this week, so you can understand his thinking. 

I helped with one problem, though. We had "too much" money in Ladbrokes, but I've been punting my off-thread Cheltenham stuff on Ladbrokes, so I've nearly solved that problem. Fair to say I've not done too good this week. Never mind, today might just be the day, hope & optimism is the fuel that drives us.

[Doobs]

The Ryanair is a bad each way race, and I can't get any enthusiasm for it.  Don Cossack is 9/2 on BF and 4/1 at bets with the bookies.  Think he is probably the best bet, so won't rec anything unless somebody goes 5/1 tomorrow.

The World Hurdle doesn't feel much better.  You look at it and think they should be quarter first 4 here, but then look and all those who have gone quarter first 4 have ducked the prices.  Zarkandar or Saphir Du Rheu both look ok to me for the Hills offer at 11/2 e/w and getting 4 places.  I know Neil likes the former, but I am biassed towards the latter who has been so good to me.  It just leaves me in a difficult spot, because I don't like tipping stuff I don't back and this is a real heart/head one for me.  I am definitely on Saphir personally tho.

The other one I like is Whisper who I think would be really nice bet if we got 11/1 and 4 places.  Can't get enthusiastic when the choice is 10/1 3 places and 9/1 4 places.

The other one that could be massive is At Fishers Cross, who you could look at if it was 33/1 4 places, but some have ducked this horse horribly and only Stans is 33/1 (coral are 18/1 paying 3 places on a horse that is 30/1 on betfair is abysmal, bet they still restrict half the forum!)  It has been an absolute dodge pot over the last year or so, but a race like this could bring out the best in him.

All very meh.

edit close to calling it a day.  It is late and we've had a good run.  Guess I could be back if I notice anything in the handicaps

You can get whisper at 11/1 with Hills e/w 4 places in the world hurdle this morning.  Suggest 20 e/w

Coral are 13/2 Zarkandar but only 3 places which might be ok too, 4 places would be v nice.

You can get 9/2 don Cossack but it is shy and pp.  Shy laid me £50 which shocked me a bit.  Software clearly broken!

[Marky147]

Laddies are 7/1  4 - 1/4 for both Nicholls horses in the World

[TightEnd]

Think he is throttling back on the bet sizes (but noit quantity) right now, as we seem to have been burning money this week. That's wrong, of course, completely so, but he's spending someone else's money, & I've had to make a few Deposits this week, so you can understand his thinking. 

i was proposing being light on bet sizes today because it looked so tough. I know not to reduce bet sizes in a bad run, or increase in a good run

rest assured, if there were six champion hurdles today with tuesday's shape (where we backed three and could/should have backed five) we'd be in, your debit card permitting

i will work through the thread now, if it isn't a tough day, we'll put some stuff on

[DungBeetle]

In my opinion the Lotae are under rated this season in the F1.  Not sure best way to get with them in fixed odds but reckon they are a cracking buy at 92 on spreads for constructors points.

Decent pace in testing, drivers are experienced and cars reliable.  They might be outdeveloped with their smaller budget, but their major funding issues seem behind them.  They have the Merc engine this year after a switch.

Thoughts on this and any fixed odds angle?  Agree with Peter that season wise there don't seem to be too many markets this year.

[TightEnd]

firstly a quick run through yesterday where we won, drumroll, £9

Aux ptit de soins was the big winner, at 10-1 for over £150

Here's Sam Twiston Shout in yellow, who looked to my recreational eyes to give it a really good ride

Click to see full-size image.

Play Nicely won at Southwell for a £50 profit

and everything else lost as the likes of Windsor Park and Don Poli won

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

"If I score against Chelsea, I don't celebrate for respect."

Click to see full-size image.

and in a strange dichotmoy, because i almost always want English sides to progress in Europe, I was pleased for PSG. Difficult to root for Chelsea as a neutral.

Meanwhile South Africa made the world cup quarter finals. Amla being dismissed for 12 by UAE caused a half hour sulk at 2am, must say

ABdeV hit another load of sixes, it almost doesn't need saying

Click to see full-size image.

 

[TightEnd]

If anyone is still up and loves a plot horse, Monetaire is interesting in the 5th race.  It has come over from France where it seems to have run in decent races, then had a sighter, afterwards started at 2/1 in the next and won fairly well there.

Now it appears at the bottom of a handicap at Cheltenham.  B365 are still going 7/1 and 5 places .  Can't see it there in the morning.

Thanks for this, & the other suggestions, Doobs.

As at 0630 this morning, BetEveryDay still go 7/1 Monetaire.

Tighty - to save you looking, Fred can get a Max of £7.14 on this. They'd allow us £7.14 win, or £7.14 EW, so if you think we should get on, may as well do it EW to get a bit more value.

Monetaire @  7/1
£14.29  EW  Single    12/03/2015 09:33:49    28.58    0.00

they laid double the earlier limit

[TightEnd]

The Ryanair is a bad each way race, and I can't get any enthusiasm for it.  Don Cossack is 9/2 on BF and 4/1 at bets with the bookies.  Think he is probably the best bet, so won't rec anything unless somebody goes 5/1 tomorrow.

The World Hurdle doesn't feel much better.  You look at it and think they should be quarter first 4 here, but then look and all those who have gone quarter first 4 have ducked the prices.  Zarkandar or Saphir Du Rheu both look ok to me for the Hills offer at 11/2 e/w and getting 4 places.  I know Neil likes the former, but I am biassed towards the latter who has been so good to me.  It just leaves me in a difficult spot, because I don't like tipping stuff I don't back and this is a real heart/head one for me.  I am definitely on Saphir personally tho.

The other one I like is Whisper who I think would be really nice bet if we got 11/1 and 4 places.  Can't get enthusiastic when the choice is 10/1 3 places and 9/1 4 places.

The other one that could be massive is At Fishers Cross, who you could look at if it was 33/1 4 places, but some have ducked this horse horribly and only Stans is 33/1 (coral are 18/1 paying 3 places on a horse that is 30/1 on betfair is abysmal, bet they still restrict half the forum!)  It has been an absolute dodge pot over the last year or so, but a race like this could bring out the best in him.

All very meh.

edit close to calling it a day.  It is late and we've had a good run.  Guess I could be back if I notice anything in the handicaps

You can get whisper at 11/1 with Hills e/w 4 places in the world hurdle this morning.  Suggest 20 e/w

Coral are 13/2 Zarkandar but only 3 places which might be ok too, 4 places would be v nice.

You can get 9/2 don Cossack but it is shy and pp.  Shy laid me £50 which shocked me a bit.  Software clearly broken!

12 Mar 2015 - 3:20 Cheltenham - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Whisper @ 11/1  EW @ 1/4 1-4

Stake : £40.00 (£20.00 x 2)

[TightEnd]

Leading question

are Valseur Lido and Apache stronghold not really nice e/w bets in the JLT?

four horses below 18/1 in the betting, 8 runners

almost a 100% book

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/13:30/winner

[TightEnd]

Day 3 at chelters looks to have some great spots

1.30 JLT - this is a great EW race, I have gone for Splash of Ginge. 16/1 (20/1 with non bookies) seems about right for an inconsistent performer but with some decent course form and the excellent EW terms, I'm going in. Recc £10EW unless anyone thinks differently

2.40 Ryanair - With 14 runners, EW is not that appealling. Do we just go win only here? I like Uxizandre (again decent course form) but this is too much of an arrow to recommend. Would be interested in peoples thoughts on this race

3.20 WH - A lot of firms paying 4 places EW. Zarkandar feels like buying money here and I know Fred is already on. I am chucking a few small darts at Aubusson (66/1) and Reve de sivola (20/1) for the hell of it


not even looked at the handicaps yet

splash of ginge

20-1 freely about and for a tenner each way....

 13:30 SPLASH OF GINGE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 20/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  270.00





we are not on Zarkandar. we could be

i need to decode some of the posts on the race though!


next question


reve de sivola is a grade one winner at a great price

tough as old boots

does it need it softer, is that why its not favoured?


here is the market for that one

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/15:20/winner

[hector62]

Morning Mr T's.

Amid all the Cheltenham shenanigans it is easy to miss that there is a decent tennis tournament starting today in Indian Wells, California. The market at the top is the usual suspects, Djokovic around evs and Federer 3 to 1 ish and neither appeal as a bet. This tournament has dished up some surprises in the past so I am looking at a couple of longer priced shots.

My first suggestion is Thomas Berdych at 25-1, not a player I completely trust to win finals but he is a bit of a flat track bully and very capable of getting to the final. He has reached the semi final here in the past and he has showed some good form this season. He also didn't play in the Davis cup last weekend.

The other player I like is Gilles Simon at 200-1 generally but there is a betfair sportsbook at 250-1. He has already won a tournament this season and he is an excellent returner which I think is important here with the ball bouncing all over the place. Both players are in the bottom half of the draw which has a number of players that have caused Federer problems in the past.

Suggest £5 e/w on both of them.