Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Seems an obv spot to be backing the Arse imo, last price done on the machine 2-1.

I'd be more surprised to see Arsenal drop points at Newcastle than City to drop them at home to Boing Boing.

Either flick in a mega chunk and lay some back, or just back at 3-1 imo.

This is a no brainer.  Skybet are 10/3 for those who can get on as well - the skybet ante post football guy is absolutely clueless when it comes to pricing stuff like this up.  Out of all the prices Liverpool is easily the worst of the four as they are in from less points than Manure for the rest of the season (see link below this takes away all argument of who has the easiest schedule left because each game is factored into the points quote for each team) and they have a huge GD disadvantage which the spread quotes don't factor in which effectively puts them a further point behind.  Given Sporting only have Arsenal 2 points behind Man City for the end of the season (Manure are 6.5 points inferior with more inferior GD as well) and if they did catch/pass Man City the slight GD advantage Man city have would probably be eroded as well this is very close to a flip and nowhere near the 10/3 price skybet have put out.  Happy to go with Chompy as close to a max bet on Arsenal in this spot at this price.

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/table - for GD purposes

oioi, Argue is back.

That's a typically concise summing up, & makes the whole thing easier to grasp.

Thanks Argue.

As usual the hard work starts actually getting the 10/3.  Finding value at skybet is easy!  Sorry to slag off your football guy Tikay but he really is clueless.  Some of the ante post ricks he has made in the last 6 weeks have been com as the kidz say.

[TightEnd]

thanks for the range of views

i have done this for starters with betfred, aware also of Adz's view but trying to access some value with the betfair price under 2-1

Premier League 2014/2015 - Main Markets
Betting W/O Chelsea
   Arsenal    3/1    
Total stake   £ 50.00
Estimated return   £ 200.00
Full stake   £ 50.00
Full estimated return   £ 200.00

in part because laying man c is not that straightforward/liquid

i know there are views pro man u/liverpool at the prices too

nothing to stop us doing things there if the consensus is they are value

[BigAdz]

I take no umbridge at my football views being ignored/passed over, Sir.

I hope i am proved very wrong!

[TightEnd]

I take no umbridge at my football views being ignored/passed over, Sir.

I hope i am proved very wrong!

i'm not passing them over (welll i am maybe, but the firm view of some others is that 3/1 is value) and the point of the results against others in the top 4 is well made, and unarguable

we can all cheer them on together (starting tonight in Europe, please)

[exstream]

4/9 Man City,

10/3 Arsenal,

 9/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.

Those prices seem ludicrous to me, given the current league table.

Must be value in opposing Man City, not sure how though. 1 point ahead of The Arse, 2 ahead of Man U & 4 ahead of Livepool, all of whom currently have momentum.

simply lay Man City and have the other teams all batting for you?

i am of course not sure what is true and what is not in the current media narrative but we have

- knocked out of europe
- lose at liverpool
- lose at burnley
- pellegrini under pressure
- who will be next? manager talk
- aguero not scoring (though this could change at any game)

and the suggestion that its not a happy camp (as it wasn't in the last few months of Mancini)

anyway, i just throw it out there.

Totally agree
Back Costa 5/4 top scorer

[arbboy]

thanks for the range of views

i have done this for starters with betfred, aware also of Adz's view but trying to access some value with the betfair price under 2-1

Premier League 2014/2015 - Main Markets
Betting W/O Chelsea
   Arsenal    3/1    
Total stake   £ 50.00
Estimated return   £ 200.00
Full stake   £ 50.00
Full estimated return   £ 200.00

in part because laying man c is not that straightforward/liquid

i know there are views pro man u/liverpool at the prices too

nothing to stop us doing things there if the consensus is they are value

I wouldn't be against putting up a lump at, say, 1.8 on bf on Man City to back them and see if anyone matches it and have Man City/Arsenal coupled potentially around the 1/4 spot. (Would be very happy to lay Manure/Lolapool coupled at 4/1 in this market)  The value is def in Arsenal but if you can get anywhere close to evens Man City we will have 2 value bets on the market.  Liverpool are massively under priced in this market.  They are on a huge heater and their price is comically short given the reasons i said in first post. They will probably realistically have to win out to win this market - given their lucky goal last night in an unconvincing performance it is very hard to see them doing that given they still have to go away to Chelski (9/2 shot) and Arsenal (4/1 shot) .  Everyone knows how Manure have over achieved results wise this year relative to the actual performances/stats.  Redarmi has banged on about it for months.

[TightEnd]

4/9 Man City,

10/3 Arsenal,

 9/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.

Those prices seem ludicrous to me, given the current league table.

Must be value in opposing Man City, not sure how though. 1 point ahead of The Arse, 2 ahead of Man U & 4 ahead of Livepool, all of whom currently have momentum.

simply lay Man City and have the other teams all batting for you?

i am of course not sure what is true and what is not in the current media narrative but we have

- knocked out of europe
- lose at liverpool
- lose at burnley
- pellegrini under pressure
- who will be next? manager talk
- aguero not scoring (though this could change at any game)

and the suggestion that its not a happy camp (as it wasn't in the last few months of Mancini)

anyway, i just throw it out there.

Totally agree
Back Costa 5/4 top scorer

thanks

will throw that out there as well

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Top Scorers

18  Diego Costa (Chelsea)
17  Agüero (Man City)
16  Kane (Tottenham)
15  Austin (QPR)
 
effectively, should Costa be odds-on?

haven't got much time but there will be some goals per game/goals per minutes played etc stats out there

[tikay]

4/9 Man City,

10/3 Arsenal,

 9/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.

Those prices seem ludicrous to me, given the current league table.

Must be value in opposing Man City, not sure how though. 1 point ahead of The Arse, 2 ahead of Man U & 4 ahead of Livepool, all of whom currently have momentum.

simply lay Man City and have the other teams all batting for you?

i am of course not sure what is true and what is not in the current media narrative but we have

- knocked out of europe
- lose at liverpool
- lose at burnley
- pellegrini under pressure
- who will be next? manager talk
- aguero not scoring (though this could change at any game)

and the suggestion that its not a happy camp (as it wasn't in the last few months of Mancini)

anyway, i just throw it out there.

Totally agree
Back Costa 5/4 top scorer

thanks

will throw that out there as well

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Top Scorers

18  Diego Costa (Chelsea)
17  Agüero (Man City)
16  Kane (Tottenham)
15  Austin (QPR)
 
effectively, should Costa be odds-on?

haven't got much time but there will be some goals per game/goals per minutes played etc stats out there

I'm not a football expert (you don't say....) but momentum is against Chelsea at the moment, but of more concern to me is Costa's ability to self-implode, he is super confrontational, he is a red card waiting to happen.

Does he have any Yellow Cards at the moment, & if so, is there a "totting up" procedure? If he were to miss, say, 3 games, that blows it wide open, no?

[Graham C]

Didn't Costa score his first goal for about 2 months at the weekend?  Kane is in better form but a couple behind but is sp*rs' run in easier?  Mind you, Chelsea have one more game to play.

[Larry David]

4/9 Man City,

10/3 Arsenal,

 9/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.

Those prices seem ludicrous to me, given the current league table.

Must be value in opposing Man City, not sure how though. 1 point ahead of The Arse, 2 ahead of Man U & 4 ahead of Livepool, all of whom currently have momentum.

simply lay Man City and have the other teams all batting for you?

i am of course not sure what is true and what is not in the current media narrative but we have

- knocked out of europe
- lose at liverpool
- lose at burnley
- pellegrini under pressure
- who will be next? manager talk
- aguero not scoring (though this could change at any game)

and the suggestion that its not a happy camp (as it wasn't in the last few months of Mancini)

anyway, i just throw it out there.

Totally agree
Back Costa 5/4 top scorer

thanks

will throw that out there as well

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer

Top Scorers

18  Diego Costa (Chelsea)
17  Agüero (Man City)
16  Kane (Tottenham)
15  Austin (QPR)
 
effectively, should Costa be odds-on?

haven't got much time but there will be some goals per game/goals per minutes played etc stats out there

I'm not a football expert (you don't say....) but momentum is against Chelsea at the moment, but of more concern to me is Costa's ability to self-implode, he is super confrontational, he is a red card waiting to happen.

Does he have any Yellow Cards at the moment, & if so, is there a "totting up" procedure? If he were to miss, say, 3 games, that blows it wide open, no?

He is still 3 yellow cards away from a ban, but that doesn't mean he won't kick out at an opponent which is he is ten times more likely to do that Kane or Aguero. 

[arbboy]

Is Costa going to play every game given Chelski could have the title wrapped up with 2 games to spare? How many minutes will Costa play during the games he plays?  Large chance of a dead heat as well in the event which is never ideal when backing a short one.  Is it really a 5/4 shot?

The other players you would imagine all play for teams who, potentially, will have a lot more to play for in EVERY game left than Costa.

[tikay]

I'm not anti the Costa bet as such, I don't know enough about football, just trying to look at it wider.

[Larry David]

@Tightend, I don't think any games/goals stats will help decide if it is a good bet/price, what the stats have showed over the last two months could dip over the next two months.  Just an opinion but  I mentioned it to exstream who is adamant this is a certainty, if Aguero has a clear run of games from now to the end of the season he will win this by a few goals, he is in a different league to the rest of them, you probably need him to have another injury, he has so many chances in games, much more than Costa.  If you prefer the stats I think he is the all time leader in the prem league for goals/per minutes.

[swinebag22]

re: laying City to finish 2nd

I think we should be cautious about betting based on things like aguero not scoring,pello under pressure, not a happy camp etc

City have generally been poor all season and some or all of the above factors (and more) have been prevalent all this time. The press have really latched on to them after Burnley/Barca but amongst this City are still putting in some good performances and getting results.
 
I'm not saying either way where City will finish this season, but I will say that the book is probably pretty much correct and should be a NO BET

[tikay]

re: laying City to finish 2nd

I think we should be cautious about betting based on things like aguero not scoring,pello under pressure, not a happy camp etc

City have generally been poor all season and some or all of the above factors (and more) have been prevalent all this time. The press have really latched on to them after Burnley/Barca but amongst this City are still putting in some good performances and getting results.
 
I'm not saying either way where City will finish this season, but I will say that the book is probably pretty much correct and should be a NO BET

Marv, luckboxes the Cheltenham Tipping Comp, thinks he knows everything.