Tips for Tikay

[Larry David]

re: laying City to finish 2nd

I think we should be cautious about betting based on things like aguero not scoring,pello under pressure, not a happy camp etc

City have generally been poor all season and some or all of the above factors (and more) have been prevalent all this time. The press have really latched on to them after Burnley/Barca but amongst this City are still putting in some good performances and getting results.
 
I'm not saying either way where City will finish this season, but I will say that the book is probably pretty much correct and should be a NO BET

Good post, they still have more talent in the team than the other teams and they could easily go unbeaten for the rest of the season, plenty of gears in this team although you wouldn't think so at the moment.

I am a season ticket holder and the only home games where we have had it all our own way was Spurs and Newcastle. Last season, it was generally procession. We have still won most games and away form has been pretty good all year. We have a pretty comfortable run in and would finish 2nd more often than not, hence the price offered.

Indeed they would.  Do you not think looking at who has tough/easy games remaining is fairly pointless?  The mackems were expected to take 0 points from these away games.  Just thought I would throw this out there to make any decisions easier  

April 2014   Manchester United 1 Sunderland 2
                Chelsea 1  Sunderland 2
May 2014   Man City 2 Sunderland 2            

FYP - but still a great run

Relegation saving run, Leicester will need a similar escape route.

[nuros]

Just read through this has been enjoyable, figured I'd chip in a little with the Costa/Aguero/Kane top goalscorer talk, although I'm definitely not sure who to back I'm leaning towards Kane simply cos his price is so much bigger. However it was mentioned earlier that Costa is 3 yellows away from a ban, he's actually two he was also booked in the league cup which counts towards the total needed for a 2 game domestic ban - fantasy league addiction coming in handy for once!

[vegaslover]

Just read through this has been enjoyable, figured I'd chip in a little with the Costa/Aguero/Kane top goalscorer talk, although I'm definitely not sure who to back I'm leaning towards Kane simply on based on the prices! However it was mentioned earlier that Costa is 3 yellows away from a ban, he's actually two he was also booked in the league cup which counts towards the total needed for a 2 game domestic ban - fantasy league addiction coming in handy for once!

At the prices, Kane is probably the value for me. Chelsea and City have goalscorers throughout their teams, Spurs have Kane

[Larry David]

Just read through this has been enjoyable, figured I'd chip in a little with the Costa/Aguero/Kane top goalscorer talk, although I'm definitely not sure who to back I'm leaning towards Kane simply cos his price is so much bigger. However it was mentioned earlier that Costa is 3 yellows away from a ban, he's actually two he was also booked in the league cup which counts towards the total needed for a 2 game domestic ban - fantasy league addiction coming in handy for once!

I was reading espn, then I have looked at a Chelsea website and it has him on 9 yellow cards. so it is 8 for sure?

[Larry David]

Aguero number one pen taker or just when Yaya is not playing?

[hector62]

Tighty.

You mentioned before that you thought Sri Lanka were a bet at 2-1 against South Africa tonight. I think they are a decent bet at that price. If you still agree then I suggest £20 @ 2-1 with betfred.

[swinebag22]

Aguero number one pen taker or just when Yaya is not playing?

Kun takes the pens

Should get 5 at home in the run in and 5 turned down away from home

[nuros]

Just read through this has been enjoyable, figured I'd chip in a little with the Costa/Aguero/Kane top goalscorer talk, although I'm definitely not sure who to back I'm leaning towards Kane simply cos his price is so much bigger. However it was mentioned earlier that Costa is 3 yellows away from a ban, he's actually two he was also booked in the league cup which counts towards the total needed for a 2 game domestic ban - fantasy league addiction coming in handy for once!

I was reading espn, then I have looked at a Chelsea website and it has him on 9 yellow cards. so it is 8 for sure?

Not 100% on this but would assume that extra yellow card is from a champions league. Virtually positive he's only on 8 domestically as not only did the stats I read saw 7 league 1 league cup 0 fa cup but the fantasy league site I read alot has a "suspension tightrope" feature showing all the players 1yc away from a ban( on 9yc at this time), it was updated yesterday and his name was not on the list - tho Fabregas' was.

[TightEnd]

Tighty.

You mentioned before that you thought Sri Lanka were a bet at 2-1 against South Africa tonight. I think they are a decent bet at that price. If you still agree then I suggest £20 @ 2-1 with betfred.

realistically the bet has a great chance if they win the toss and bat in this day/night game - as Malinga and Herath apart their bowling lacks penetration but defending 300+ gives them a shot

i have it far closer than 8/15 2/1 though. trawling around twitter, so did the sporting life, ed hawkins, matchbook tips and others so the collective wisdom is all looking for the value

i did it with the goat, where we have some money nowadays

Your selections

    Event: South Africa vs Sri Lanka
    Time: 18-03-2015 03:30
    BS_MARKET: Match Result
    Selection: Sri Lanka @ 2/1

Your Bets

    Win
    Single:
    Sri Lanka
    1 line at £20.00 per line
    Total stake for this bet: £20.00
    Potential Return: £60.00
    No: O/0849138/0000018

    Total stake:£20.00
    Free bets/vouchers:£0.00
    Total cost:£20.00

[Larry David]

Aguero number one pen taker or just when Yaya is not playing?

Kun takes the pens

Should get 5 at home in the run in and 5 turned down away from home

haha, makes him an even better pick for the boot, if his hamstrings don't give him any bother.

[arbboy]

One person has spoken about the football guy at SKY being clueless in pricing up Arsenal, would it be giving him too much credit to suggest they may have liabilities already in this market so need to balance the book? MR T may know this.

Skybet put up three ante post markets on the EPL at 2/9 1/7 and 1/8 that even Larry would have thought were maximum bets.  One of them (1/8) literally can't get beat i would happily have laid the other side at 200/1 to lose my half my net worth but i get 1/8 thanks to skysweat.  If they are 'lol balancing their books' on ante post positions which i don't think they are as i would be amazed if they had anything like 5 figure positions on these minor markets to even be in a spot to give it away (then long may it continue that they give away old bets to pros at bad prices).  We have covered all this in the past numerous times on fred since 2012 and why this time of year is the perfect time to make hay in the ante post markets as awful traders think they are doing the right thing 'giving it away' to insure against positions their multi billion pound companies can easily run with.

[Larry David]

Just read through this has been enjoyable, figured I'd chip in a little with the Costa/Aguero/Kane top goalscorer talk, although I'm definitely not sure who to back I'm leaning towards Kane simply cos his price is so much bigger. However it was mentioned earlier that Costa is 3 yellows away from a ban, he's actually two he was also booked in the league cup which counts towards the total needed for a 2 game domestic ban - fantasy league addiction coming in handy for once!

Not 100% on this but would assume that extra yellow card is from a champions league. Virtually positive he's only on 8 domestically as not only did the stats I read saw 7 league 1 league cup 0 fa cup but the fantasy league site I read alot has a "suspension tightrope" feature showing all the players 1yc away from a ban( on 9yc at this time), it was updated yesterday and his name was not on the list - tho Fabregas' was.

https://www.thechels.co.uk/analysis/players/

no idea how accurate this is.  shows 9

[Larry David]

I don't turn my nose at a 1/8 basically past the post, but not a 1/8 shot that one punter thinks should be 1/20 just based on his opinion, seems as though the bet you are taking about was just a woeful price error which is fair enough.

This 1/8? still running?

[arbboy]

re: laying City to finish 2nd

I think we should be cautious about betting based on things like aguero not scoring,pello under pressure, not a happy camp etc

City have generally been poor all season and some or all of the above factors (and more) have been prevalent all this time. The press have really latched on to them after Burnley/Barca but amongst this City are still putting in some good performances and getting results.
 
I'm not saying either way where City will finish this season, but I will say that the book is probably pretty much correct and should be a NO BET

Good post, they still have more talent in the team than the other teams and they could easily go unbeaten for the rest of the season, plenty of gears in this team although you wouldn't think so at the moment.

I am a season ticket holder and the only home games where we have had it all our own way was Spurs and Newcastle. Last season, it was generally procession. We have still won most games and away form has been pretty good all year. We have a pretty comfortable run in and would finish 2nd more often than not, hence the price offered.

Indeed they would.  Do you not think looking at who has tough/easy games remaining is fairly pointless? The mackems were expected to take 0 points from these away games.  Just thought I would throw this out there to make any decisions easier  

April 2014   Manchester United 1 Sunderland 2
                Chelsea 1  Sunderland 2
May 2014   Man City 0 Sunderland 1            

We have to look at expectation to win games though, actual events are surely less relevant.

If City had 7 home games v bottom 7 teams and unit had 7 away games v top 8 teams and united were 5 points ahead of city now then city would still be favourites to finish above united purely because of the games remaining. In my eyes it is exactly the key to this bet, who had what games left and how likely are they to win or not win them games.

Spot on as usual Born.  That is why using sporting index's razor sharp accurate predictions for each game for each team points expectations is the key to this bet.  The fact Arsenal are within 2 points of Man City's total makes them a rock solid bet at 10/3.  No further analysis needs to be undertaken unless you think you can beat sporting index on a regular basis on one of their easiest to calculate markets.  Their prices are literally never 'wrong' on this market at this time of the year.  If you then add in goal difference factors which is the only thing Spin's quotes don't take into account this gives the bet an even bigger edge.

As Camel said the other day beating the spread traders (who are 20 times sharper than most fixed odds firms) is a much tougher thing to do.  It is just easier to assume they are right on stuff like this similar to the QPR relegation bet 2 weeks ago which was based on Spin's points expectations primarily.  There is no point trying to get clever and outthink Spin when they have done all the work for you with their advanced models. 

[arbboy]

I don't turn my nose at a 1/8 basically past the post, but not a 1/8 shot that one punter thinks should be 1/20 just based on his opinion, seems as though the bet you are taking about was just a woeful price error which is fair enough.

This 1/8? still running?

No it's not there anymore neither are the other two.  They moved from 1/8 to 1/100 on the said bet after 1 bet struck and a similar manner in the other two so i assume they were not 'balancing their books' and they just don't have a clue how to price this type of stuff up.