Tips for Tikay

[Larry David]

So this 1/8, what was the realistic price at the time as it couldn't get beat?

[arbboy]

So this 1/8, what was the realistic price at the time as it couldn't get beat?

I said i would have happily laid 200/1 the other side if i had to and still had an edge on the bet.  There are so many 1/6 1/10 shots on ante post markets on various sports right now which are literally 1/100 or shorter in reality.  Some of the NBA divisions are incredible this time of year if you can get all the ricks with the same firm and have an acca at like 1/3 which should be 1/20.

If you do the maths on what actually has to happen for Liverpool to finish 2nd in the EPL (they obviously have to go past Man City, Arsenal and Manure.  They are 4/1 and 9/2 to win two of their remaining games.  All three teams ahead of them would have to slump quite massively as well as Liverpool probably having to win out to come 2nd).

It makes the 12/1 look incredibly short.  If they only had to get past 1 team above them then it is a lot easier.  To expect 3 teams (2 of which are mathematically expected to get 6 and 8 points more than them in only 9 games and manure 1 more point than them) plus they are effectively an extra point behind on top of those total's already with GD doesn't make Liverpool look a bet at 12/1 to me to finish 2nd.  The firms will always lay Liverpool at 12/1 and Manure at 9/1 though to casuals so they have no need to go the true price to get them laid.  This gives serious players real opportunities to get stuck into the positive ev opp's around the front of the market.

I don't understand why people are scared to back a 1/20 at 1/8 but they are not scared to back a 12/1 shot at 20/1.  The longer people don't the more opportunities will exist for the few that are willing to do so and understand the huge EV advantages of doing so.

[Larry David]

OK, than answers it,read it incorrectly.  Outside of the NFL the other three u.s sports are like that,left dormant for days,often weeks and when they eventually wake up they adjust them to silly odds, so at no time through the season are they correct.

[TheDazzler]

Just read through this has been enjoyable, figured I'd chip in a little with the Costa/Aguero/Kane top goalscorer talk, although I'm definitely not sure who to back I'm leaning towards Kane simply cos his price is so much bigger. However it was mentioned earlier that Costa is 3 yellows away from a ban, he's actually two he was also booked in the league cup which counts towards the total needed for a 2 game domestic ban - fantasy league addiction coming in handy for once!

Not 100% on this but would assume that extra yellow card is from a champions league. Virtually positive he's only on 8 domestically as not only did the stats I read saw 7 league 1 league cup 0 fa cup but the fantasy league site I read alot has a "suspension tightrope" feature showing all the players 1yc away from a ban( on 9yc at this time), it was updated yesterday and his name was not on the list - tho Fabregas' was.

https://www.thechels.co.uk/analysis/players/

no idea how accurate this is.  shows 9

For the purposes of league suspensions, Fabregas is on 9 yellows, Costa is on 8.
If either get to 10 before 12th April, they will serve a 2 game suspension. After the 12th April, the quota will be upped to 15 yellows.

[Chompy]

Re: Arsenal, I think if we had £200 at 3-1 and offered back £150 @ 3.2 on the machine, it would be taken this evening and long as they don't have a mare. So that's a rec then, flick it in!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: Costa top scorer, the market for Premier League golden boot will always be at least a dozen times more accurate than those for L1 and L2 for example. The L1 market has been wildly inaccurate all season, and still is.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/northwest-division/winner

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/group/3

This market is a classic example.  There are 15 games left in the season.  OKC currently have 2 of their best 3 players out injured indefinitely.  They are 8 games behind with 15 games to play.  Even if they win all 15 games they have left which they would be at least 250/1 to do they probably still would only be a flip to win the division as Portland would only have to go 9-8 in their last 17 games to hold on which they would be big odds on to do given their current record.  Portland also have an unbeatable 3-0 head to head tie breaker in the reg season which effectively puts them 9 games clear in effect as if they tie after 82 games Portland would win the division.  Therefore Portland can go 8-9 now if OKC go 15-0 and still win the division.

This could be a case of lol traders thinking 'u will never go skint laying a 1/12 shot or if we go 20/1 okc and create an arb even though okc are a good lay at 20/1 we as loltraders are on a hiding to nothing laying a 20/1 shot which should be bigger because the lol trading director will never bollock us if we lay a 1/12 winner but will do if we lay a 20/1 winner which was an arb'.

Second case could be okc were favs pre season and we laid a bit of them at evens and don't mind laying some 1/12 portland even though okc cant possibly win and we are just setting fire to 8% of our okc profits to insure ourselves when we don't even need to insure ourselves as the company is worth in excess of £1bn yet constantly set fire to cash to insure themselves in spots where they are easily rolled to absorb.

You can back Portland at 1/12.  The bet is identical to being able to lay a 200/1+ shot (say Liverpool to win the EPL this season or Andy Hamilton to win next year's world darts or Matthew Stevens to win the world snooker) at 12/1 to win their event and your money will only be tied up for a maximum of 3 weeks.

[Larry David]

I will put a question to you on backing 1/20.1/8  later, will be interesting to hear your thoughts.

Is this without any hedging?

[arbboy]

Re: Arsenal, I think if we had £200 at 3-1 and offered back £150 @ 3.2 on the machine, it would be taken this evening and long as they don't have a mare. So that's a rec then, flick it in!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re: Costa top scorer, the market for Premier League golden boot will always be at least a dozen times more accurate than those for L1 and L2 for example. The L1 market has been wildly inaccurate all season, and still is.

I have no problems with doing this for a double max bet (whatever that is for fred nowadays) and laying back half so we have a single max bet at an even bigger price than 3/1 after laying half shorter on bf.  Seems totally logic to me.  It is definitely worthy of more than £50 we currently have on.

[TightEnd]

the combined might of chompy and arbboy on the case

i went to place another £200 at 3-1 with the aim of laying back a part at shorter, but unfortunately restrictions came into view

Bet placed

    Bet placed, its reference is 468/510

Bet ref: 468/510 £33.30 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Premier League 2014/2015 - Main Markets
Betting W/O Chelsea
   Arsenal    3/1    
Total stake   £ 33.30
Estimated return   £ 133.20
Full stake   £ 33.30
Full estimated return   £ 133.20


currently we have £83 at 3-1

we can run that as a position, or lay back a part at 3.0+. up to you two

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.114895371

[arbboy]

the combined might of chompy and arbboy on the case

i went to place another £200 at 3-1 with the aim of laying back a part at shorter, but unfortunately restrictions came into view

Bet placed

    Bet placed, its reference is 468/510

Bet ref: 468/510 £33.30 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Premier League 2014/2015 - Main Markets
Betting W/O Chelsea
   Arsenal    3/1    
Total stake   £ 33.30
Estimated return   £ 133.20
Full stake   £ 33.30
Full estimated return   £ 133.20


currently we have £83 at 3-1

we can run that as a position, or lay back a part at 3.0+. up to you two

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.114895371

No need to lay anything until we got £200 on it at 3/1 for me.  Chompy's call though.

[Chompy]

Aye Tay Tait just gone up 3-1 also, but feels kinda wrong lumping at that price when 100-30 is available elsewhere. Let the £80 ride imo.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/northwest-division/winner

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/group/3

This market is a classic example.  There are 15 games left in the season.  OKC currently have 2 of their best 3 players out injured indefinitely.  They are 8 games behind with 15 games to play.  Even if they win all 15 games they have left which they would be at least 250/1 to do they probably still would only be a flip to win the division as Portland would only have to go 9-8 in their last 17 games to hold on which they would be big odds on to do given their current record.  Portland also have an unbeatable 3-0 head to head tie breaker in the reg season which effectively puts them 9 games clear in effect as if they tie after 82 games Portland would win the division.  Therefore Portland can go 8-9 now if OKC go 15-0 and still win the division.

This could be a case of lol traders thinking 'u will never go skint laying a 1/12 shot or if we go 20/1 okc and create an arb even though okc are a good lay at 20/1 we as loltraders are on a hiding to nothing laying a 20/1 shot which should be bigger because the lol trading director will never bollock us if we lay a 1/12 winner but will do if we lay a 20/1 winner which was an arb'.

Second case could be okc were favs pre season and we laid a bit of them at evens and don't mind laying some 1/12 portland even though okc cant possibly win and we are just setting fire to 8% of our okc profits to insure ourselves when we don't even need to insure ourselves as the company is worth in excess of £1bn yet constantly set fire to cash to insure themselves in spots where they are easily rolled to absorb.

You can back Portland at 1/12.  The bet is identical to being able to lay a 200/1+ shot (say Liverpool to win the EPL this season or Andy Hamilton to win next year's world darts or Matthew Stevens to win the world snooker) at 12/1 to win their event and your money will only be tied up for a maximum of 3 weeks.  What is not to like?  Why is this considered a 'risky' bet by the masses if you stake accordingly to your bank roll?

[OverTheBorder]

Sky allows me up to £600 on Arsenal 100/30. How muggy does that make me lol??

[arbboy]

Sky allows me up to £600 on Arsenal 100/30. How muggy does that make me lol??

Have the £600 on then see what happens to your account.  All accounts will be like that who bet smaller amounts.  Doesn't make you a mug at all.  Just means your business hasn't hit their radar yet.

[Larry David]

You can back Portland at 1/12.  The bet is identical to being able to lay a 200/1+ shot (say Liverpool to win the EPL this season or Andy Hamilton to win next year's world darts or Matthew Stevens to win the world snooker) at 12/1 to win their event and your money will only be tied up for a maximum of 3 weeks.  What is not to like?  Why is this considered a 'risky' bet by the masses if you stake accordingly to your bank roll?

Identical in terms of what?  tied up until one of them 'Great moments in sport' is created and forever repeated on sky sports which will haunt you forever.  Matthew stevens wins the world title.

Yes the 1/12 Portland does look like it will come home but to say thunder have no chance is madness, if portland had a 1/8 game run which is very possible, it happens in sport and thunder go on a 7/8 tear. we have a tie at the top.  I hear what you are saying but you have to avoid the impossible happening so many times, just takes one of these 1/20 to go tits up without any hedging and you are looking at needing another 20 to break even if you are going with level stakes.  Just trying to get a grasp on if you are running these bets out or hedging on a 1/8 which is 100% a 1/20shot etc.