Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

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Ship it!

10-7. Six consecutive frames seals the win.

Can't believe some of you doubted him. Ahem...

Quite so, quite so.

Well done, good shout.

You even overcame the handicap of Marky money.

Up the stakes, he's on a heater

[aaron1867]

Going to get this up early, surely this price can't be around for long?

England V Lithuania (Friday)

England to win to nil - 8/13 - 365

Odds on, but lots of firms priced up a lot shorter. I don't believe that England have ever conceeded a goal against a lowly ranked team, so this seems a decent odds on price. I can't see how England will even let the hosts have a decent chance, never mind letting one in.

8/13 is surely generous when we are 1/8,1/9 & even 1/10 in places

They conceded a rather famous one vs san marino. There are more but the bet is fine. The only thing I would say in opposition is that taking best price about permutations yielded a better price for me doing this against san marino when I believe there was a similar soft price about a win to nil.

I have tried to use Google to find some relevant stats, like how many goals have been let in against lesser footballing nations. However, it's a stat that for me that I seem unable to find. I've been backing England to nil against nations like these for the last few years, it has from what I can remember ALWAYS been a winning bet. These aren't against lesser footballing teams like Poland, but the San Marino's, Moldova's, Estonia's and on Friday it will be Lithuania. I think it's a market that one or two firms don't get right. Ladbrokes priced San Marino to nil at 2/7.

However, you point regarding the famous goal that San Marino scored is quite pointless, I believe this was a very long time ago!

8/13 to nil v a team ranked 94th. I think is a fantastic bet.

England 5-0 San Marino
England 4-0 Moldova
San Marino 0-8 England
Wales 0-2 England
England 6-0 Andorra
Kazakhstan 0-4 England
Andorra 0-2 England
England 3-0 Andorra
England 5-0 Andorra

These are nations that are likely to be ranked 80th and lower. There is a 5-0 and 0-0 v Israel, but I don't believe that they would be in the categories of the above.

[JohnCharver]

Going to get this up early, surely this price can't be around for long?

England V Lithuania (Friday)

England to win to nil - 8/13 - 365

Odds on, but lots of firms priced up a lot shorter. I don't believe that England have ever conceeded a goal against a lowly ranked team, so this seems a decent odds on price. I can't see how England will even let the hosts have a decent chance, never mind letting one in.

8/13 is surely generous when we are 1/8,1/9 & even 1/10 in places

They conceded a rather famous one vs san marino. There are more but the bet is fine. The only thing I would say in opposition is that taking best price about permutations yielded a better price for me doing this against san marino when I believe there was a similar soft price about a win to nil.

I have tried to use Google to find some relevant stats, like how many goals have been let in against lesser footballing nations. However, it's a stat that for me that I seem unable to find. I've been backing England to nil against nations like these for the last few years, it has from what I can remember ALWAYS been a winning bet. These aren't against lesser footballing teams like Poland, but the San Marino's, Moldova's, Estonia's and on Friday it will be Lithuania. I think it's a market that one or two firms don't get right. Ladbrokes priced San Marino to nil at 2/7.

However, you point regarding the famous goal that San Marino scored is quite pointless, I believe this was a very long time ago!

8/13 to nil v a team ranked 94th. I think is a fantastic bet.

England 5-0 San Marino
England 4-0 Moldova
San Marino 0-8 England
Wales 0-2 England
England 6-0 Andorra
Kazakhstan 0-4 England
Andorra 0-2 England
England 3-0 Andorra
England 5-0 Andorra

These are nations that are likely to be ranked 80th and lower. There is a 5-0 and 0-0 v Israel, but I don't believe that they would be in the categories of the above.

The stats are totally irrelevant and no idea why wales are there, they are better than montenegro who did score against us. fwiw lithuania are comfortably better than all but wales there

Mon   08/09/14   ECQ   San Marino   
0 - 2
Lithuania   View events   More info
Thu   09/10/14   ECQ   Lithuania   
1 - 0
Estonia   View events   More info

They also held ukraine in their last game so unfair to compare them to some of the total junk teams above.

I didnt dispute it was a decent shout only that you said we never concede (stats that are pointless as its not even the same team) and that this price was optimal as with price boosts closer to the date you can prob bet 1-7 nil at a better price.

[aaron1867]

Lithuania are 94th ranked, I don't think comparing them to teams lower ranked than 70th and 80th is that wrong really. we are still long odds on. As for Wales, tough one they are a lot better now, than they was previously. You have to remember the results I have posted are in the past, many months and a few years ago, your Montenegro comment is a bit wrong though surely, they was quite competitive in our last qualifying group from what I can remember.

I think these stats are fair - Show many results based to bet.

I also didn't post a few other results, against mediocre football nations.

[arbboy]

4 of the games are totally meaningless against Andorra as i had max bet on england at 1/50 and 1/100 to beat them the last few times they have played.  Andorra literally couldn't beat a pub side in the uk never mind a conference side.  Take those out straight away out of the sample.  We are talking about a 1/8 fav here not a 1/1000 fav.   No opinion on the price of the bet but i find it hard to beleive how a 1/8 fav is priced massively wrong to concede a goal in a game.  If you think 8/13 is massively wrong then the 1/8 is also a bet to the same strength England to win as they are directly correlated.

[aaron1867]

4 of the games are totally meaningless against Andorra as i had max bet on england at 1/50 and 1/100 to beat them the last few times they have played.  Andorra literally couldn't beat a pub side in the uk never mind a conference side.  Take those out straight away out of the sample.  We are talking about a 1/8 fav here not a 1/1000 fav.   No opinion on the price of the bet but i find it hard to beleive how a 1/8 fav is priced massively wrong to concede a goal in a game.  If you think 8/13 is massively wrong then the 1/8 is also a bet to the same strength England to win as they are directly correlated.

Where can you get the correct stats to make a comparison? I don't think it's anywhere near fair to compare to Montenegro, but who do you compare to who we have played in recent campaigns? Israel? Moldova? Wales?

[moonandback]

San Diego State Aztecs 49                                  Duke Blue devils 68

sweet 16 here we come, next game Friday night

[tikay]

San Diego State Aztecs 49                                  Duke Blue devils 68

sweet 16 here we come, next game Friday night

Top work Moony, top work.

Friday it is, then. Keep us posted, please.

[tikay]

Going to get this up early, surely this price can't be around for long?

England V Lithuania (Friday)

England to win to nil - 8/13 - 365

Odds on, but lots of firms priced up a lot shorter. I don't believe that England have ever conceeded a goal against a lowly ranked team, so this seems a decent odds on price. I can't see how England will even let the hosts have a decent chance, never mind letting one in.

8/13 is surely generous when we are 1/8,1/9 & even 1/10 in places

Thanks Aaron.

The 8/13 is still available this morning.

The key to the value, surely, is the correlation between win to nil @ 8/13, & the Outright @ 1/10? I have no idea how that correlates, though Team Math might.

Personally, though I have no stats or data to suggest it makes sense, I don't much like betting on the England football team to do anything, any time, anywhere.

On balance, the bet might be a smidgen of value, but I don't think 8/13 is hugely wrong. Remember, we are looking for VALUE. 

BMU offer 4/7, which is only a nadge worse than 8/13, so I don't think the price is miles ool.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/england-v-lithuania/to-win-to-nil

Good luck with the bet though, obv.

[horseplayer]

Think 8/13 is probably a smidgen big

Lithuania are pretty solid defensively but don't play very attacking and thus don't score many..

[tikay]

What is going on?

Aside from our essential staple diet of football, horse racing, tennis & cricket, we have ruminated on all sorts, & placed bets on the following in the last 7 days.....

Budget Bingo

Birth date of Kate's next baby.

The Stanley Cup

Britain's national bird.

Electric car racing.


All we need now is some bright spark to suggest we bet on Eurovision.

 

[tikay]

Guess I had bettter quickly add, in case anyone thinks I'm serious, that "Misc" is, measured by any reasonable yardsticks & sample size, far & away our most profitable activity.

Bets placed = 142

Amount staked = £5,793

Amount won = £1,956.70

ROI = 33.77%

How do these things happen?

PS - Football is our most profitable activity by amount won.

Bets placed = 1,123

Amount staked = £34,891

Amount won = £2,591

ROI = 7.43%


And our third most profitable activity, albeit limited sample size?

Baseball!

Bets placed = 42

Amount staked = £1,823

Amount won = £1,037

ROI = 56.9%


Who would have predicted that 1-2-3?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £138.40

Outstanding Bets £4172.34

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=22

A profit of £163 yesterday

Hibs loss to Rangers secured the Scottish Championship for Hearts and a profit of £233

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Hibs loss to Rangers meant a match bet loss of £50

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Djokovic beat Federer in the Indian Wells final in three sets -£20, Djokovic's 50th career title

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ongoing positions

Barcelona beat Real in el clasico to go 4 points clear at the top of La Liga. Real Madrid's defeat meant they have lost consecutive away matches in La Liga for the first time since September 2012

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Duke beat SDSU to reach the "sweet sixteen" of March Madness. The next NBA Sperstar Jahlil Okafor scored another 25 points on his way to becoming the first draft pick this year

Duke have opened 4.5 point favourites for the last 16 game with Utah

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Liverpool lost at home to Man U, a big blow to our handicap bet

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To rub salt into our wounds Rooney, an outside bet for the top four in the golden boot for us still, missed a last minute penalty

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In the Bundesliga Mainz05 drew at home to Wolfsburg. Needing to hit the top four for us, Mainz are 11th, 15 points behind with 7 games to go, so we are pretty close to a loser there

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In the NBA there were wins for Cleveland, the Spurs, the Clippers and the Raptors

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the only one of our positions to lose last night was the Mavericks

[tikay]

A profit of £163 yesterday

Hibs loss to Rangers secured the Scottish Championship for Hearts and a profit of £233


Great stuff KMac, thank you. Huge result for us, that.

[arbboy]

I know you like the monthly figures to look as good as possible so it will be mathematically certain the Raptors have won their division in the NBA within the next week so that can be settled as and when it happens to get us closer to the black for March.