Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

323 is a majority

you can pick your own estimate but mine would be something like

Con 275

Lab 275

LD 30

SNP 45

UKIP 3

Green 1

SNP got 6 last time. That 40 seat increase this is mostly from Labour, some LD

without the structural changes in Scotland seats, Lab would get close to majority

but with SNP 40+ they can't make it

Con 280, UKIP will win 1-7 seats only but thats off 1.5m votes

if UKIP didn't exist then 75%+ of that 1.5m vote base reverts to Con and in FPTP system gives them a shot at a majority

so the combination of UKIP and SNP breaking down two party voting patterns means majority goverment is an almost impossibility this time

big picture, this vote share relative to seat pattern is going to mean vote reform is going to be a big issue in post election coalition wrangling

because a coalition is going to need to look like con+ld+ukip+dup or lab+snp+sdlp+green to get anywhere close to 323 all the marginal power in these discussions is in the smaller parties who can extract huge concessions. or should

tighty give some examples of what you have to happen in reality for a hung parl to lose?  Ie sex scandal etc with party leader etc etc.

[JohnCharver]

Long time reader who really enjoys this thread so thought id try my first bet

Stephen peters 5/1 sj  top northants batsman in cc div 2 for me he should be 5/2 fav .Northants had a nightmare season in div 1 last year when peters was captain.Without the shackles of captaincy and back in div 2 he looks the clear favourite to be top scorer imo.
The opposition
1.kyle coatzer 4/1 I don't even think he will get into the team when everyone is fully fit.
2,r levi 3/1 more of a 20/20 specialist cant see him been consistant enough to be top scorer in cc
3, rossington  9/2 came in late last season and did ok but still has a lot to prove
4,a wakely 6/1 was off all last year with injury and will probably take awhile to settle back in
5,r Keogh 7/1 a promising young player but still a lot to do to be in peters league
6,j cobb 8/1 another with promise but a lot to prove
7,r newton 10/1 a player whos shown a lot of promise with 6x 100 in 3 years ravaged by injury if he stays fit I think hes the main danger to peters
8,duckett  16/1 another promising youngster whos had some fitness problems and still a lot to prove to be in peters league
9willey 25/1 a really promising all rouder but he could be battiing as low as 8 or 9 this year so going toi be really hard to be top scorer from there
MY BETS
peters 5/1 100
newton 10/1 50

lol and your name is?

[tikay]

Long time reader who really enjoys this thread so thought id try my first bet

Stephen peters 5/1 sj  top northants batsman in cc div 2 for me he should be 5/2 fav .Northants had a nightmare season in div 1 last year when peters was captain.Without the shackles of captaincy and back in div 2 he looks the clear favourite to be top scorer imo.
The opposition
1.kyle coatzer 4/1 I don't even think he will get into the team when everyone is fully fit.
2,r levi 3/1 more of a 20/20 specialist cant see him been consistant enough to be top scorer in cc
3, rossington  9/2 came in late last season and did ok but still has a lot to prove
4,a wakely 6/1 was off all last year with injury and will probably take awhile to settle back in
5,r Keogh 7/1 a promising young player but still a lot to do to be in peters league
6,j cobb 8/1 another with promise but a lot to prove
7,r newton 10/1 a player whos shown a lot of promise with 6x 100 in 3 years ravaged by injury if he stays fit I think hes the main danger to peters
8,duckett  16/1 another promising youngster whos had some fitness problems and still a lot to prove to be in peters league
9willey 25/1 a really promising all rouder but he could be battiing as low as 8 or 9 this year so going toi be really hard to be top scorer from there
MY BETS
peters 5/1 100
newton 10/1 50

oioi, Stumpy is on board.

We will do those bets Stumpy, "New Tipsters Rights", though it's up to Tighty to decide "how much", £150 is way above our regular bet size.

Be good if anyone else has feedback on those bets, too. 

Thanks for posting, & keep the stuff coming. We have very little domestic cricket stuff for this season yet, & we had a great time with it last year.

[exstream]

Long time reader who really enjoys this thread so thought id try my first bet

Stephen peters 5/1 sj  top northants batsman in cc div 2 for me he should be 5/2 fav .Northants had a nightmare season in div 1 last year when peters was captain.Without the shackles of captaincy and back in div 2 he looks the clear favourite to be top scorer imo.
The opposition
1.kyle coatzer 4/1 I don't even think he will get into the team when everyone is fully fit.
2,r levi 3/1 more of a 20/20 specialist cant see him been consistant enough to be top scorer in cc
3, rossington  9/2 came in late last season and did ok but still has a lot to prove
4,a wakely 6/1 was off all last year with injury and will probably take awhile to settle back in
5,r Keogh 7/1 a promising young player but still a lot to do to be in peters league
6,j cobb 8/1 another with promise but a lot to prove
7,r newton 10/1 a player whos shown a lot of promise with 6x 100 in 3 years ravaged by injury if he stays fit I think hes the main danger to peters
8,duckett  16/1 another promising youngster whos had some fitness problems and still a lot to prove to be in peters league
9willey 25/1 a really promising all rouder but he could be battiing as low as 8 or 9 this year so going toi be really hard to be top scorer from there
MY BETS
peters 5/1 100
newton 10/1 50

lol and your name is?

Lolol

[tikay]

Long time reader who really enjoys this thread so thought id try my first bet

Stephen peters 5/1 sj  top northants batsman in cc div 2 for me he should be 5/2 fav .Northants had a nightmare season in div 1 last year when peters was captain.Without the shackles of captaincy and back in div 2 he looks the clear favourite to be top scorer imo.
The opposition
1.kyle coatzer 4/1 I don't even think he will get into the team when everyone is fully fit.
2,r levi 3/1 more of a 20/20 specialist cant see him been consistant enough to be top scorer in cc
3, rossington  9/2 came in late last season and did ok but still has a lot to prove
4,a wakely 6/1 was off all last year with injury and will probably take awhile to settle back in
5,r Keogh 7/1 a promising young player but still a lot to do to be in peters league
6,j cobb 8/1 another with promise but a lot to prove
7,r newton 10/1 a player whos shown a lot of promise with 6x 100 in 3 years ravaged by injury if he stays fit I think hes the main danger to peters
8,duckett  16/1 another promising youngster whos had some fitness problems and still a lot to prove to be in peters league
9willey 25/1 a really promising all rouder but he could be battiing as low as 8 or 9 this year so going toi be really hard to be top scorer from there
MY BETS
peters 5/1 100
newton 10/1 50

lol and your name is?

What price he is a wicket-keeper?

[TightEnd]

hi and welcome along

we can't use stan james i am afraid

coral have some prices up, but nowhere near as attractive as the others

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/top-northamptonshire-batsman

happy to help, we'll always try and put first bets of a new poster on, but it would have to be at coral

we have a nice history with northants when they won the T20, on them early and Azarullah on finals day

fwiw i think this is a very competitive heat

big fan of Wakely now he is fit. went to barbados pre-season, fully fit after his achilles and should hit the ground running.

Keogh is going to be very good indeed. So is Duckett, but failing pre-season fitness tests at 19yo shows he has some maturing to do

regard all the others as opposable too. i have it in mind that this is peters last season before he goes into insurance (i think his winter job is insurance). in the back of my mind i can't have him as prolific as he was 3-4 years ago and possibly retiring before the end of the season?

so, back to you to look at coral please

[BigAdz]

Same old Labour looks good to me.

One person may fight shy of it, but the chances of all of them ignoring it are too big IMHO.

I like Zero Hours Contracts, but I suspect half of these are so ill informed they would be scared to quote a number in front of it.

Scares me that Labour can potentially get so many seats having put us into the last mire.

If only we could bet on short memories!!!

[exstream]

I would trust stumpys recommended amounts as he is very shrewd

[TightEnd]

323 is a majority

you can pick your own estimate but mine would be something like

Con 275

Lab 275

LD 30

SNP 45

UKIP 3

Green 1

SNP got 6 last time. That 40 seat increase this is mostly from Labour, some LD

without the structural changes in Scotland seats, Lab would get close to majority

but with SNP 40+ they can't make it

Con 280, UKIP will win 1-7 seats only but thats off 1.5m votes

if UKIP didn't exist then 75%+ of that 1.5m vote base reverts to Con and in FPTP system gives them a shot at a majority

so the combination of UKIP and SNP breaking down two party voting patterns means majority goverment is an almost impossibility this time

big picture, this vote share relative to seat pattern is going to mean vote reform is going to be a big issue in post election coalition wrangling

because a coalition is going to need to look like con+ld+ukip+dup or lab+snp+sdlp+green to get anywhere close to 323 all the marginal power in these discussions is in the smaller parties who can extract huge concessions. or should

tighty give some examples of what you have to happen in reality for a hung parl to lose?  Ie sex scandal etc with party leader etc etc.

something like that, and only something like that

to be 40 seats above the polls 5 weeks out (to get a majority) is so unlikely that may2015.com the election site of the new statesman makes it a sub 10% chance of a majority

plug your own forecasts into http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

[TightEnd]

I would trust stumpys recommended amounts as he is very shrewd

lets hope so, but we won't be doing £150 on them I am afraid

we'll be doing £0 at stan james, so back to him to look at Coral

[tikay]

I would trust stumpys recommended amounts as he is very shrewd

lets hope so, but we won't be doing £150 on them I am afraid

we'll be doing £0 at stan james, so back to him to look at Coral

Nothing to stop others betting large though, if they like the bets.

Personally, I get a great sweat, hector style, from £20 & £30 bets. We have to somehow make the bankroll go round so many different sports & bets, & I'm not keen to add too much to the forward liability, it was over £4,000 last time I looked.

[Doobs]

Said I'd never touch these buzzword bingo markets again but 1.8m zero-hour contracts is only going to be said as 1.8m zero-hour contracts, and surely gets sayed?

But there are only 700,000?

[Doobs]

Said I'd never touch these buzzword bingo markets again but 1.8m zero-hour contracts is only going to be said as 1.8m zero-hour contracts, and surely gets sayed?

But there are only 700,000?

Lol, heard 700,000 on the radio today, but it seems you can pick any number.  700k is the number who have them for their main employment.  1.8m height of last summer in total.

[stumpythefish]

hi and welcome along

we can't use stan james i am afraid

coral have some prices up, but nowhere near as attractive as the others

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/top-northamptonshire-batsman

happy to help, we'll always try and put first bets of a new poster on, but it would have to be at coral

we have a nice history with northants when they won the T20, on them early and Azarullah on finals day

fwiw i think this is a very competitive heat

big fan of Wakely now he is fit. went to barbados pre-season, fully fit after his achilles and should hit the ground running.

Keogh is going to be very good indeed. So is Duckett, but failing pre-season fitness tests at 19yo shows he has some maturing to do

regard all the others as opposable too. i have it in mind that this is peters last season before he goes into insurance (i think his winter job is insurance). in the back of my mind i can't have him as prolific as he was 3-4 years ago and possibly retiring before the end of the season?

so, back to you to look at coral please

no bet for me at corals hopefully some other firm will price it up nearer 9/2  nearer the  season.I think with it probably been his last season he will want to go out with a bang and is the proven run scorer with his teammates showing a lot of promise but non have burst through yet,Thanks for the reply I was going to go in again but you have tempered my enthusiam

[stumpythefish]

Long time reader who really enjoys this thread so thought id try my first bet

Stephen peters 5/1 sj  top northants batsman in cc div 2 for me he should be 5/2 fav .Northants had a nightmare season in div 1 last year when peters was captain.Without the shackles of captaincy and back in div 2 he looks the clear favourite to be top scorer imo.
The opposition
1.kyle coatzer 4/1 I don't even think he will get into the team when everyone is fully fit.
2,r levi 3/1 more of a 20/20 specialist cant see him been consistant enough to be top scorer in cc
3, rossington  9/2 came in late last season and did ok but still has a lot to prove
4,a wakely 6/1 was off all last year with injury and will probably take awhile to settle back in
5,r Keogh 7/1 a promising young player but still a lot to do to be in peters league
6,j cobb 8/1 another with promise but a lot to prove
7,r newton 10/1 a player whos shown a lot of promise with 6x 100 in 3 years ravaged by injury if he stays fit I think hes the main danger to peters
8,duckett  16/1 another promising youngster whos had some fitness problems and still a lot to prove to be in peters league
9willey 25/1 a really promising all rouder but he could be battiing as low as 8 or 9 this year so going toi be really hard to be top scorer from there
MY BETS
peters 5/1 100
newton 10/1 50

lol and your name is?

peter whats yours?