Tips for Tikay

I was trying a few days ago to put into words why the Rosberg bet was in trouble

fortunately james allen's article today does it

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/04/insight-why-vettel-and-ferrari-were-a-menace-to-rosberg-in-china-but-not-for-the-reason-he-thought/?utm_content=buffer6d494&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"Last year Mercedes had a significant pace advantage over its rivals, which meant that the team strategists could experiment with different strategies – more stops or different tyres – for their car running in second place to give him a chance to win the race. This happened at most venues and led to some great races, like Bahrain and Spain, as well as some later in the season like Austin and Brazil......

The problem for Rosberg is that there is not the scope for two widely differing strategies this year between the Mercedes drivers, because Vettel is close enough that if one of the strategies goes wrong, the team would not get a 1-2 finish, in fact it might even lose the race. It is one thing to switch one driver onto a different tyre for the second stint if you are racing yourselves with the third place car 8 or 10 seconds behind. But quite another if Vettel is sitting 1.6 seconds behind in third place at the end of the opening stint.

This puts more emphasis on qualifying and the start of the race, which is why Rosberg was so deflated after missing pole by 4/100ths of a second on Saturday and why Hamilton had his car pointed at an aggressive angle on the start line, aiming across at Rosberg to cut off any challenge into Turn 1."

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As, mistakes or mechanical problems apart, Rosberg can't outqualify Hamilton too often or overtake him in the race on what has to be an identical strategy...he's unlikely to beat him over a season long contest

There's no denying anything you've said here - it's fact rather than an opinion, Hamilton does just have the edge over his team mate in terms of pace. However this: "mistakes or mechanical problems apart", is what gives Rosberg a shot at the title. It's 50/50 on who has more reliability issues during the season. If Hamilton has two more mechanical issues, that's (probably) 50 points up to Rosberg. We got 4/1 on this which is phenomenal

What makes this even better is that Hamilton does have a history of having accidents as the pressure builds later on in the season if he's unhappy with life. We saw it in 2010 & 2012.

I don't think we did get 4/1, we got 3/1. 4 for a decimal odds from Betfair is the same as 3/1 old school.

Sometimes our bets will turn bad. It is just bound to happen and you have to accept it and move on. Now we can get 6/1 or 7.0 on Rosberg which is probably fair odds, because of the chances of mechanical issues etc. I suspect 5/1 and a third the odds 1-2 is a better bet, I am not recommending it though.

Ah right, I personally got 4/1.

Interesting about an each way bet, I'll mull it over.

Quote from: DungBeetle on April 15, 2015, 09:50:05 AM

Quote from: Peter-27 on April 14, 2015, 09:52:50 PM

Quote from: TightEnd on April 14, 2015, 01:44:46 PM

What makes this even better is that Hamilton does have a history of having accidents as the pressure builds later on in the season if he's unhappy with life. We saw it in 2010 & 2012.

Hamilton is a quicker qualifier and has more race pace and they are in identical cars. The spread boys think Hamilton will finish 56 points ahead (currently 17) What price do you think it should have been if 4-1 is phenomenal?

I don't see how this is much different from Hakkinen v Coulthard in 1998. Cars far superior to the field but one driver with a clear edge.

At the start of the season, anything more than 2/1 was crazy!

I agree, Hamilton does have a clear edge. I agreed with Tighty's comments, just said that 4/1 at the start of the season on Rosberg is a great price given potential breakdowns