Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Double put Russell Knox up as part of his portfolio for the US Golf.

As a regular reader of the golf thread will know, I have been a fully paid up member of the Knox fan club for a while. I have a standing order in place each week.

The guy is gradually getting there, and just seems to get it round week on week, and will soon put it all together and cross the line first soon.

Having had a week off, and with many possibly not totally focused after Augusta, he is probably worth a five spot, each way for interest.


In the racing today, have the minimum ew on American Hope in the 3.30. @14s

He has a few pounds to find on ratings and has been campaigned at further since his move from Ireland. However he shows plenty of pace, and with fitness on his side vs plenty on their first time up this year, he could surprise.


Should keep idle hands busy for a few minutes.

16 Apr 2015 - 3:30 Newmarket - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

American Hope @ 14/1  EW @ 1/5 1-3

Stake : £10.00 (£5.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
94.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001295/F

Free bet redeemed - Didn't know we had this, but used it



Single - 2015 RBC Heritage

Russell Knox - |Tournament Winner|

Odds: 50/1

Each way : 1/4 5 places

1 lines at £5.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £10.00

Potential Return:N/A

Time : 16/4/2015-12:38

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000915

Total Stake: £10.00
   

[Knottikay]

The World Snooker Championship begins its Crucible play this Saturday as the top 16 play the sixteen qualifiers, who are concluding the final qualifying round currently

The draw for the top 16 seeds has happened, shown on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_World_Snooker_Championship

it is, i think, a lopsided draw

this is important because the market is e/w 1/2 1,2

you can, theoretically, identify a half lacking the depth of the other and try to pick a player to win that half

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/world-snooker-championship/winner

the bottom half is a monster

the third quarter has Ding and Higgins due to meet in the second round then Trump in the quarters

the winner of that quarter meets, assuming all goes to plan, Ronnie from the fourth quarter (and Mark Williams who has shown more appetite for the game in 2015 got the bad draw, ronnie in round 2)

the top half is a bit easier, though selby v maguire in the second round is a tough one for both players..then murphy in the quarters...then theoretically robertson in the semi's

the high seeds in the top half have lacked form most of the season

- selby struggled until he won in china recently

- murphy won the masters in january, but in ranking tournaments has only got past the quarters once

- Robertson won the wuxi early on but has only one quarter final since september

- maguire has two quarters and a semi, none since xmas

- allen semi final in the masters, two finals early on nothing since october

--

whereas the bottom half has players in form, and depth, the top half looks wide open to me

outright prices for the top half players are

robertson 6/1
selby 8/1
murphy 11/1
allen  28/1
maguire 33/1
50/1 bar

i can't see anyone bar those 5 getting to the top half semi. can you?

i was thinking that with the front three looking vulnerable on season long form (albeit they will have been looking to peak for the crucible, they still have to try to do well all season for rankings purposes, and by and large haven't), that the value has to be in taking Allen and Maguire e/w for the title and trying to get a run from one deep in the tournament

allen would have to get through robertson, maguire would have to get through selby/murphy  but i think both offer a lot more value than the front three

thoughts welcome please.  

Nice write up with good reasoning. However, I personally dont think Maguire will get  through Selby or Murphy. Both of these will of upped their game significantly before the World Championship. I have also been informed that Selby is on fire ATM in his practice sessions and he is the one I am backing for the overall win. I therefore do like the look of your other suggestion in Allen. He is the most improved player I have watched for a while and results are showing this. He could just be the dark horse this year.

My suggestion for thread.....(just a gut feeling for the love of the game with no reasoning so will prob be dismissed anyway) but....

Two of more 147 breaks - market is around 6/1

[Marky147]

Tourney long sweat @ 6/1... Lovely!

[TightEnd]

skibet market only (which Alan could have said. Alan, Alan, Alan)

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/world-snooker-championship/147-specials

fwiw:

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/world-snooker-championship/will-there-be-a-147-brea

11/8 Yes

there have been 9 on the pro circuit (in the finals stages) this year - 8 the season before, 10 the season before that, 11 three years ago

the last crucible maximum was hendry 2012, and there have been 11 since Thorburn in 1983

[superwomble]

bits and bobs for today please


- no snooker feedback?

- premier league darts thursday

4 games have the draw at 4-1, these are higher odds than we would see in most weeks

- Craven day at Newmarket with War envoy and kool kompany in the big guineas trial

- rajasthan v sunrisers in the ipl. a big game for both.

- the rbc heritage golf. Spieth has been chucked in as 13/2 favourite. would be hugely surprising to see him 100% on his game this week wouldn't it?

how might you oppose him?

- wigan v warrington tonight in super league

- opposition leaders debate on the bbc tonight. i have a fancy, though not the sturgeon value as last time, but an inkling


any ideas and thoughts welcome

Any value in this debate's buzzword bingo?

[TightEnd]

would also be interested in any thoughts on first round upsets at odds against

the draw as follows

 Mark Selby (Eng) v Kurt Maflin (Nor)

Stephen Maguire (Sco) v Anthony McGill (Sco)

Joe Perry (Eng) v Zhang Anda (Chn)

Shaun Murphy (Eng) v Robin Hull (Fin)

Barry Hawkins (Eng) v Matthew Selt (Eng)

Mark Allen (NI) v Ryan Day (Wal)

Ali Carter (Eng) v Alan McManus (Sco)

Neil Robertson (Aus) v Jamie Jones (Wal)

Ding Junhui (Chn) v Mark Davis (Eng)

John Higgins (Sco) v Robert Milkins (Eng)

Marco Fu () v Jimmy Robertson (Eng)

Judd Trump (Eng) v Stuart Carrington (Eng)

Ricky Walden (Eng) v Graeme Dott (Sco)

Stuart Bingham (Eng) v Robbie Williams (Eng)

Mark Williams (Wal) v Matthew Stevens (Wal)

Ronnie O'Sullivan (Eng) v Craig Steadman (Eng)

at first glance Dott, McManus and Selt appeal. First two are nuggety tough fighters, tricky to put away though of course Ali Carter is a fine matchplayer too. All three are 6/4+

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship

of course this year every qualifier has played 3 19 frame matches to get through...numbers 32-17 were not seeded to final qualifying....so you could look to argue that the qualfiers will be match hardened coming into this

[TightEnd]

bits and bobs for today please


- no snooker feedback?

- premier league darts thursday

4 games have the draw at 4-1, these are higher odds than we would see in most weeks

- Craven day at Newmarket with War envoy and kool kompany in the big guineas trial

- rajasthan v sunrisers in the ipl. a big game for both.

- the rbc heritage golf. Spieth has been chucked in as 13/2 favourite. would be hugely surprising to see him 100% on his game this week wouldn't it?

how might you oppose him?

- wigan v warrington tonight in super league

- opposition leaders debate on the bbc tonight. i have a fancy, though not the sturgeon value as last time, but an inkling


any ideas and thoughts welcome

Any value in this debate's buzzword bingo?

this might help you

http://news.ladbrokes.com/politics/live-debate-buzzword-bingo-expect-utter-madness-farage_231723.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=sports&utm_campaign=politics_CZ38016/4/15&hootPostID=b5da57a18eafe40ce71238655434f88e

Click to see full-size image.

utter madness, to use a farage catchphrase, does look a fun one at 5/1

Click to see full-size image.

[peejaytwo]

not a Mcmanus fan myself,tough match player as in makes it hard for the oppo by playing good safety,but hardly fluent when breakbuilding. his stats 2014/15

England 2015 World Championship   Still competing   12,000
China 2015 China Open   Last 64   3,000
Thailand 2015 Players Championship Grand Final   Last 32   4,000
Wales 2015 World Grand Prix   Last 32   2,500
India 2015 Indian Open   Last 64   2,000
England 2015 Snooker Shootout   Last 64   500
England 2015 World Seniors Championship   Round 3   0
Poland 2015 European Tour - Event 6   Last 16   1,917
Wales 2015 Welsh Open   Last 16   5,000
Germany 2015 German Masters   Last 64   1,250
Portugal 2014 European Tour - Event 5   Withdrew   0
England 2014 UK Championship   Last 128   0
China 2014 International Championship   Last 64   3,000
Bulgaria 2014 European Tour - Event 3   Last 16   1,917
China 2014 Shanghai Masters   Quarter-final   12,000
Germany 2014 European Tour - Event 2   Quarter-final   3,333
Latvia 2014 European Tour - Event 1   Last 16   1,917
Australia 2014 Australian Open   Last 16   6,667
China 2014 Wuxi Classic   Last 16   8,000
Total      69,001

[TightEnd]

not a Mcmanus fan myself,tough match player as in makes it hard for the oppo by playing good safety,but hardly fluent when breakbuilding. his stats 2014/15

England 2015 World Championship   Still competing   12,000
China 2015 China Open   Last 64   3,000
Thailand 2015 Players Championship Grand Final   Last 32   4,000
Wales 2015 World Grand Prix   Last 32   2,500
India 2015 Indian Open   Last 64   2,000
England 2015 Snooker Shootout   Last 64   500
England 2015 World Seniors Championship   Round 3   0
Poland 2015 European Tour - Event 6   Last 16   1,917
Wales 2015 Welsh Open   Last 16   5,000
Germany 2015 German Masters   Last 64   1,250
Portugal 2014 European Tour - Event 5   Withdrew   0
England 2014 UK Championship   Last 128   0
China 2014 International Championship   Last 64   3,000
Bulgaria 2014 European Tour - Event 3   Last 16   1,917
China 2014 Shanghai Masters   Quarter-final   12,000
Germany 2014 European Tour - Event 2   Quarter-final   3,333
Latvia 2014 European Tour - Event 1   Last 16   1,917
Australia 2014 Australian Open   Last 16   6,667
China 2014 Wuxi Classic   Last 16   8,000
Total      69,001

thank you yes

had a nice draw this time last year (including Doherty who i remember well thinking how terribly he performed when he lost to him) winning two matches and losing to selby in the quarters

no, he doesn't have the scoring power of many but he does win a load of the tight frames in long matches


 

[TightEnd]

The NHL play offs start for us tonight

i might need rinswun's help here, as it isn't a sport i know

they play for the Stanley cup

a small understated trophy

Click to see full-size image.

http://www.nhlplayoffsbracket.com/2015/index.php

we have Minnesota Wild who play the St Louis Blues over a maximum of seven games

"The St. Louis Blues finished first in the Central division, earning 109 points. The Minnesota Wild finished as the Western Conference's first wild-card, earning 100 points. This is the first playoff meeting for these two teams. The teams split this year's four-game regular season series, with each team winning once at home and once on the road."

i assume we are underdogs?

[swinebag22]

I think Mark Allen is too short for his match with Ryan Day. Rankings and season performances would place Allen as favourite. I just feel that Allens inconsistency (3 first round exits and 2 finals) makes him one to oppose. We can have Day at 2/1 with Russ but I think a better way would be to back Day on the handicap +2.5 with Billy. Recommend £22 @ 10/11

[TightEnd]

I think Mark Allen is too short for his match with Ryan Day. Rankings and season performances would place Allen as favourite. I just feel that Allens inconsistency (3 first round exits and 2 finals) makes him one to oppose. We can have Day at 2/1 with Russ but I think a better way would be to back Day on the handicap +2.5 with Billy. Recommend £22 @ 10/11

ouch

i fancy Allen as an outsider to reach the final and i find Ryan Day one of the least reliable betting propositions and mentally weakest players in the top 50. A choker, imho.

lol. off to lie down for 10 minutes

[swinebag22]

I think Mark Allen is too short for his match with Ryan Day. Rankings and season performances would place Allen as favourite. I just feel that Allens inconsistency (3 first round exits and 2 finals) makes him one to oppose. We can have Day at 2/1 with Russ but I think a better way would be to back Day on the handicap +2.5 with Billy. Recommend £22 @ 10/11

ouch

i fancy Allen as an outsider to reach the final and i find Ryan Day one of the least reliable betting propositions and mentally weakest players in the top 50. A choker, imho.

lol. off to lie down for 10 minutes

Just trying to help get things moving

Can accept the comments on Day, but he is 20th in the world and probably chokes bigger games than Allen. Allen seems to be very unreliable. He reminds me of Ronnie without the talent. Happy for you to leave this alone though.

[Marky147]

For me, Allen's problems are borne from his temperament, rather than him lacking in the talent department.

[TightEnd]

I think Mark Allen is too short for his match with Ryan Day. Rankings and season performances would place Allen as favourite. I just feel that Allens inconsistency (3 first round exits and 2 finals) makes him one to oppose. We can have Day at 2/1 with Russ but I think a better way would be to back Day on the handicap +2.5 with Billy. Recommend £22 @ 10/11

ouch

i fancy Allen as an outsider to reach the final and i find Ryan Day one of the least reliable betting propositions and mentally weakest players in the top 50. A choker, imho.

lol. off to lie down for 10 minutes

Just trying to help get things moving

Can accept the comments on Day, but he is 20th in the world and probably chokes bigger games than Allen. Allen seems to be very unreliable. He reminds me of Ronnie without the talent. Happy for you to leave this alone though.

no need, happy to place it, mine is only one view and often wrong!

i just need to gear myself up to do it :-)