Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Afternoon Tighty.

Betfred have boosted a price for tonight's rugby league. They are 5/4 for Wigan to be winning at HT and FT while everyone is odds on. I am not at all convinced with Warrington and their 80-0 thrashing of Wakefield does not count for much.


Suggest £20 Wigan HT and FT @ 5/4 with Betfred.

We are halfway there with this, Wigan lead 16-14 at half time.

Been proper swingy swingy though. It went....

0-10

12-10

12-14

16-14

We just need to hold now. Really enjoyable game to watch so far.

....and the lead changes again.

16-20

....and again,

22-20

Final score 30-20, so Wigan win both halves and we have a winner.

Good job Hector, good job, thank you.

[BigAdz]

Nice one Hector.

Cheers.

[Mark_Porter]

If we can get through the weekend without Kate popping then the Royal baby will be bringing profit.

April 20th - April 26th +£30
April 27th - May 3rd + £40
May 4th - May 10th +£20

It could have been more but prices were collapsing just as Fred got on.

I suspect a few will be on May at 10/1 with PP. Now best price 2/1 but seems unlikely given the below outside the hospital wing.

Click to see full-size image.

Stay off the Vindaloo tomorrow flower.

[tikay]

^^^^^

Thanks Mark.

Until Monday, we just need to HOLD.

[Tal]

Anyone else have these conversations with friends and work colleagues?

"You like a bet, don't you, Tal?"
"Yes"
"What do you bet on? Football?"
"Sometimes, but a whole variety of things"
"Like cricket, rugby and that?"
"Not just sport"
"Like what?"

Thirty seconds later, they have a look of abject horror.

[tikay]

Anyone else have these conversations with friends and work colleagues?

"You like a bet, don't you, Tal?"
"Yes"
"What do you bet on? Football?"
"Sometimes, but a whole variety of things"
"Like cricket, rugby and that?"
"Not just sport"
"Like what?"

Thirty seconds later, they have a look of abject horror.

Think that's a bit exaggerated Tal - we have not even had a bet on the colour of the baby's hair yet.

[BigAdz]

Not for Fred cos

Its with Sky, if you can.

In the Spring Cup tomorrow, Loving Spirit has its first run for Fahey, and more importantly has Ryan up.

Used to be with James Toller, who never quite got from the horse what it promised.

The booking of Ryan looks most significant, as you would normally expect a run or two to put a horse like this spot on. I suspect Fahey may think he can unlock the key at the first attempt.

His horses are flying, so at 14-1 I would have a good ew bet, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is smashed up tomorrow, so you can lay it off, if you get a bit windy!

[Tal]

Anyone else have these conversations with friends and work colleagues?

"You like a bet, don't you, Tal?"
"Yes"
"What do you bet on? Football?"
"Sometimes, but a whole variety of things"
"Like cricket, rugby and that?"
"Not just sport"
"Like what?"

Thirty seconds later, they have a look of abject horror.

Think that's a bit exaggerated Tal - we have not even had a bet on the colour of the baby's hair yet.

Speak for yourself

[nellberg]

for those that can use pp, rohit sharma shouldn't be 3/1 to top score for mumbai indians in the ipl today. as short as 2's elsewhere, 9/4 general. hit 98* in the first game so in some from, and now aaron finch is injured will have to take more responsibility at the top of the order and look to bat through the innings

[rinswun]

According to the books we are underdogs - 13/10 best price. I think that's factoring the Blues having the home advantage over 7 games. If the Wild win tonight, I think that price flip flops.

In terms of talent I think the two teams are very similar. I believe that the Wild have the edge in defense and in goal but the Blues have the edge up front as they have more offensive depth. However, again in my opinion, I believe the Wild's roster and system is built for the playoffs and their aggressive forechecking and tight gap control will enable them to smoother the Blues offense. I think the Wild will triumph in 6.

The Wild took game one to go a game up in the best of 7 series. The Wild restricted the Blues to just 21 shots, some way down on the 31 they'd averaged in the regular season. Maintaining that sort of statistic will be key to winning the series. Only BV have gone up with new prices but it's 8/13 Wild, 13/10 Blues.

One bet to watch when the rest of the books release their prices - Tampa Bay to win their series against the Red Wings. The Wings took game one 3-2 but were outshot 46-14 which is pretty much unheard of in playoff games. The Lightning are a much more talented team in my opinion, and no doubt the bookies know all of the above. However, if they're pricing things systematically, their prices could be out and if they are 13/10 or higher, I'd rec £20.

[tikay]

According to the books we are underdogs - 13/10 best price. I think that's factoring the Blues having the home advantage over 7 games. If the Wild win tonight, I think that price flip flops.

In terms of talent I think the two teams are very similar. I believe that the Wild have the edge in defense and in goal but the Blues have the edge up front as they have more offensive depth. However, again in my opinion, I believe the Wild's roster and system is built for the playoffs and their aggressive forechecking and tight gap control will enable them to smoother the Blues offense. I think the Wild will triumph in 6.

The Wild took game one to go a game up in the best of 7 series. The Wild restricted the Blues to just 21 shots, some way down on the 31 they'd averaged in the regular season. Maintaining that sort of statistic will be key to winning the series. Only BV have gone up with new prices but it's 8/13 Wild, 13/10 Blues.

One bet to watch when the rest of the books release their prices - Tampa Bay to win their series against the Red Wings. The Wings took game one 3-2 but were outshot 46-14 which is pretty much unheard of in playoff games. The Lightning are a much more talented team in my opinion, and no doubt the bookies know all of the above. However, if they're pricing things systematically, their prices could be out and if they are 13/10 or higher, I'd rec £20.

Exactly as you predicted, the prices flip flopped.

When is the next game, please?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £417.64

Outstanding Bets £3933.02

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

A profit of £24 yesterday, Wigan winning H-T and F-T against Warrington in the super league

Click to see full-size image.

the free bet at Newmarket was unplaced

ongoing positions

Root 59 in the second innings in Antigua

most runs for england after the first test

Bell 154
Root 142
Ballance 132

Click to see full-size image.

Rajasthan 4 out of 4 in the IPLafter a last ball win over Sunrisers yesterday

Click to see full-size image.

Minnesota Wild beat the St Louis Blues 4-2 in the first game of their play off series

Click to see full-size image.

i had to scroll a fair way down the board to find Russell Knox at the RBC Heritage, a first round of 75 +4

the election is tight...

Click to see full-size image.

the clock is ticking

Click to see full-size image.

Norwich-Mddlesborough tonight in the Campionship. 2nd v 4th. Draw please....or else Watford's manager will be on the case

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Bahrain GP this weekend 

Here are my pre-weekend bet suggestions:

Points Finish - Max Verstappen @ EVS with Bvictory. Max has already shown he is one of the best on the grid. Given that Red Bull/Toro Rosso/Sauber and Lotus have very similar paced cars right now, Max will score points if he doesn't have some sort of incident. EVS is too high. Suggest £25.

Points Finish - Marcus Ericsson @ 6/5 with Bvictory. Marcus should be EVS here given he's in the Sauber. I can see why they've placed him above evens, his results haven't been as good as you would have thought so far this season, however this has all been to circumstances outside his control - and that's what makes this value (albeit slim value). Suggest £10.

That's all I've got for now. Will keep you all updated as usual

both with bwin

    4/17/2015 11:22 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Bahrain - Race (Top-10 bet (driver))
    Marcus Ericsson (SWE/Sauber)
    ?

   10.00    2.20       
   4/17/2015 11:22 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Bahrain - Race (Top-10 bet (driver))
    Max Verstappen (NED/Toro Rosso)
    ?

   25.00    2.00

[TightEnd]

According to the books we are underdogs - 13/10 best price. I think that's factoring the Blues having the home advantage over 7 games. If the Wild win tonight, I think that price flip flops.

In terms of talent I think the two teams are very similar. I believe that the Wild have the edge in defense and in goal but the Blues have the edge up front as they have more offensive depth. However, again in my opinion, I believe the Wild's roster and system is built for the playoffs and their aggressive forechecking and tight gap control will enable them to smoother the Blues offense. I think the Wild will triumph in 6.

The Wild took game one to go a game up in the best of 7 series. The Wild restricted the Blues to just 21 shots, some way down on the 31 they'd averaged in the regular season. Maintaining that sort of statistic will be key to winning the series. Only BV have gone up with new prices but it's 8/13 Wild, 13/10 Blues.

One bet to watch when the rest of the books release their prices - Tampa Bay to win their series against the Red Wings. The Wings took game one 3-2 but were outshot 46-14 which is pretty much unheard of in playoff games. The Lightning are a much more talented team in my opinion, and no doubt the bookies know all of the above. However, if they're pricing things systematically, their prices could be out and if they are 13/10 or higher, I'd rec £20.

in the history of the NHL play offs teams that lose the first game of the seven game series win the series 31.6% of the time

found that out last night. interesting. or not

best price currently is just under evens, that we can access

if you want to keep an eye on it and prod if the price gets there

http://www.oddschecker.com/ice-hockey/nhl/tampa-bay-lightning-detroit-red-wings/series-winner

[hector62]

Morning Tighty.

Another cracking rugby league game tonight when St Helens host Leeds. I think St Helens are a more complete team and expect them to win but it will be a tough game. Leeds defence is good throughout the team but they are missing both of their wingers which will limit their offence.

Where St Helens have a big advantage is in close to the play the ball. They do so with far more pace than Leeds and in Roby, Walsh, and Burns they have the better players and I expect them to make a lot of ground. The market where I think this gives us a bet is in the anytime scorer market. With those players making the breaks I think that there is a good case to be made for those players that can support the breaks in close to the play the balls. The person I think we should back is McCarthy-Scarsbrook at 5-1. He has 5 tries in 9 games this season including against Wigan and Warrington who are both good defensively.

Suggest £10 Mcarthy-Scarsbrook to score anytime @ 5-1 with Ladbrokes.