Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

one for arbboy and his love of the short odds

currently lib-dems are projected to be getting somewhere between 21-30 seats in the election
currently the snp are projected at getting anywhere upward of 48 seats

the betting will billy small mountains is 1/10 for the snp to get most seats when it should really be a 1/100 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-snp-v-lib-dem

[DungBeetle]

Struggling McLaren-Honda expect a significant step forward in performance at the next grand prix.

http://bbc.in/1OxSS4c

the challenge to our <155 points for the season spread starts then

This is a key phase for the bet. If they show little improvement in the next 2/3 races it could drop to the 60 mark.  If they start an upward curve, given the struggles of several of the other teams it's not beyond the realms that this could be trading in the upper 200s withing 6 weeks imo.

FWIW I have no current position but at 122 I'd be a buyer at the moment given the risk profile.

[McGlashan]

That's Gareth Bale and Modric now ruled out for Real's Champions league tie. Atleti already looked a decent bet to qualify being unbeaten in the previous 5 clashes this season.

Victor stil has a stale price of 13/8 for (trading 2.45 on betfair) although there's a small risk of that being an account flagger. http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/real-madrid-v-atletico-madrid/to-qualify

Alternatively there's the 14-1 general price on Atleti to win the CL that matches Betfair. That'ds the one I've bet due to liking Porto to qualify over a Bayern Munich side who themselves have injury problems to key players.

[doubleup]

Anyone who can, have a small EW banzai on Troy Merritt with bet everyday @ 140-1 for the Zurich Classic golf.  He was 3rd on the course in 2010 and is now playing the best of his career with a 3rd yesterday and a 6th in March.

[BigAdz]

bet365 Gold Cup (Sandown, Sat, 3.50, )

Sponsors bet:
9 Le Reve
12 Paint The Clouds
14 The Package, Bobs Worth, Duke Of Lucca
16-1 bar

Gallant Oscar not amongst the final 40 either

i assume we weren't NRNB.....

Sorry, been travelling.

I did note that it may not actually run, and that was part of the risk.

Rest assured, Fred's loss is significantly less than mine!

Reminder. Do not bet what you can't afford to lose! You have to break a few eggs etc.

[TightEnd]

That's Gareth Bale and Modric now ruled out for Real's Champions league tie. Atleti already looked a decent bet to qualify being unbeaten in the previous 5 clashes this season.

Victor stil has a stale price of 13/8 for (trading 2.45 on betfair) although there's a small risk of that being an account flagger. http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/real-madrid-v-atletico-madrid/to-qualify

Alternatively there's the 14-1 general price on Atleti to win the CL that matches Betfair. That'ds the one I've bet due to liking Porto to qualify over a Bayern Munich side who themselves have injury problems to key players.

i put this up a week ago bt it did not lead to any discussion. unfortunately its gone favourite everywhere since

did anyone watch Porto-Bayern last night

Porto won 3-1 and were very good value for it

Bayern is the 11th Champions League team to lose the first leg 3-1 on the road; 3 of previous 10 advanced.

Porto is the underdog to qualify, >even money in a spot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-porto/to-qualify

of course its Bayern, and they have a decent shot at overcoming the deficit but are they really favourites to advance?

sorry i missed the atletico price earlier, now 5/4 best

[TightEnd]

Anyone who can, have a small EW banzai on Troy Merritt with bet everyday @ 140-1 for the Zurich Classic golf.  He was 3rd on the course in 2010 and is now playing the best of his career with a 3rd yesterday and a 6th in March.

110-1 now

sorry i missed this earlier. too late?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/zurich-classic-of-new-orleans/winner

[nellberg]

couldnt post earlier about this one as i was out of the house. my mate wanted an ipl bet for the day, i said to oppose sunil narine in kkr top bowler market as his wickets this ipl had been 0, 0 and 1. went on koral to find prices for him for that market and stumbled across narine individual market over 1.5 wickets 8/11, under 1.5 wickets evens. normally teams will take zero risks against him and attack the rest so his wickets will be low despite when he bowls (normally bowls 1 in power play, 1 in middle overs and 2 at the end). in the end it was a canny sweat, he got a wicket in his first over (my mate retained the faith whilst i was cursing at this point) but unders copped despite some manic slogging against him at the death (he ended up being most expensive bowler with 1-38 off his 4). i think this bet is a good one for as long as they price it up like they did today due to the nature of how teams normally plan to play him, which is low risk, rotate the strike, make up the runs against people like andre russell and yadav at the death. any other cricket followers have an opinion on it?

[TightEnd]

couldnt post earlier about this one as i was out of the house. my mate wanted an ipl bet for the day, i said to oppose sunil narine in kkr top bowler market as his wickets this ipl had been 0, 0 and 1. went on koral to find prices for him for that market and stumbled across narine individual market over 1.5 wickets 8/11, under 1.5 wickets evens. normally teams will take zero risks against him and attack the rest so his wickets will be low despite when he bowls (normally bowls 1 in power play, 1 in middle overs and 2 at the end). in the end it was a canny sweat, he got a wicket in his first over (my mate retained the faith whilst i was cursing at this point) but unders copped despite some manic slogging against him at the death (he ended up being most expensive bowler with 1-38 off his 4). i think this bet is a good one for as long as they price it up like they did today due to the nature of how teams normally plan to play him, which is low risk, rotate the strike, make up the runs against people like andre russell and yadav at the death. any other cricket followers have an opinion on it?

do we think he is also less effective since his ban/remedial action on his bowling action? tested twice, passed at loughborough then the bcci re-tested him

some evidence that his carom ball/googly is easier to pick.... 

[doubleup]

Anyone who can, have a small EW banzai on Troy Merritt with bet everyday @ 140-1 for the Zurich Classic golf.  He was 3rd on the course in 2010 and is now playing the best of his career with a 3rd yesterday and a 6th in March.

110-1 now

sorry i missed this earlier. too late?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/zurich-classic-of-new-orleans/winner

prob just leave it - was for the extra big price that I posted.

[nellberg]

couldnt post earlier about this one as i was out of the house. my mate wanted an ipl bet for the day, i said to oppose sunil narine in kkr top bowler market as his wickets this ipl had been 0, 0 and 1. went on koral to find prices for him for that market and stumbled across narine individual market over 1.5 wickets 8/11, under 1.5 wickets evens. normally teams will take zero risks against him and attack the rest so his wickets will be low despite when he bowls (normally bowls 1 in power play, 1 in middle overs and 2 at the end). in the end it was a canny sweat, he got a wicket in his first over (my mate retained the faith whilst i was cursing at this point) but unders copped despite some manic slogging against him at the death (he ended up being most expensive bowler with 1-38 off his 4). i think this bet is a good one for as long as they price it up like they did today due to the nature of how teams normally plan to play him, which is low risk, rotate the strike, make up the runs against people like andre russell and yadav at the death. any other cricket followers have an opinion on it?

do we think he is also less effective since his ban/remedial action on his bowling action? tested twice, passed at loughborough then the bcci re-tested him

some evidence that his carom ball/googly is easier to pick.... 

that is an added benefit to the punt, he is still feeling his way back into things, may not be as effective as he used to be, but my bet was based around the way teams play him. recent example the kings xi game, bailey was well set and trying to set a target, yet was happy to take the 1's and 2's versus narine and then have a go at the others. some teams seem to set out and say " we can't pick him, lets hang on the back foot, work the singles, target the others".

 it might not be a bad tactic to be fair, but he is always favourite to take most wickets for kkr, when i'd prefer to be on someone like morne with the new ball or even russell buying some, bowlers who they take risks against. chawla is another who guys will attack, gives it some flight, takes a chance. narine is bowling darts at people who normally are happy to be conservative against. given that i think the price is wrong.

 its not a bet i'd do with other spinners (tahir, chawla, mishra) but until teams start regularly targetting him i'd always want to be on the under 1.5 if the price holds. kkr also love chasing, so if they win the toss they will always field, lessening the chance you have of a team needed to attack him no matter what, eg if the chasing team had to get 50 off last 4 and he had 2 overs left for instance, where the bet would be in more danger. today was a strange one, in that he got one early (slightly fortuitous drag on off duminys elbow) then angelo took him on late (possibly due to his exposure to mystery spin from playing with ajantha mendis?) when you'd want him to be none-for from his early 2 and teams milking him at the end, which was the formula from his first 3 outings. i just couldn't believe the price, hes a great bowler and will end up with one of the best economy rates but i doubt he'll take the wickets his price insinuates he should

[arbboy]

one for arbboy and his love of the short odds

currently lib-dems are projected to be getting somewhere between 21-30 seats in the election
currently the snp are projected at getting anywhere upward of 48 seats

the betting will billy small mountains is 1/10 for the snp to get most seats when it should really be a 1/100 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-snp-v-lib-dem

Great spot iron.  Exactly the kind of spot 1/10 is big value.  Have been out all day so missed it but please post more of those.  1/20 now.  Probably still value tbf.

[Ironside]

ok i must be missing something somewhere

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-conservative-seats-in-scotland

10/3 for there to be no tories in scotland
currently they have 1 MP and he is 2% behind the snp in the polls as far as i can tell the tories only hope of winning a seat in scotland is this seat

surely this has to be worth £10 of freds money

[RickBFA]

ok i must be missing something somewhere

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-conservative-seats-in-scotland

10/3 for there to be no tories in scotland
currently they have 1 MP and he is 2% behind the snp in the polls as far as i can tell the tories only hope of winning a seat in scotland is this seat

surely this has to be worth £10 of freds money

Thanks Iron, looks an unbelievable price.

I'm on. Wonder if they will call it a palp and not pay out?

[RickBFA]

one for arbboy and his love of the short odds

currently lib-dems are projected to be getting somewhere between 21-30 seats in the election
currently the snp are projected at getting anywhere upward of 48 seats

the betting will billy small mountains is 1/10 for the snp to get most seats when it should really be a 1/100 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-snp-v-lib-dem

Great spot iron.  Exactly the kind of spot 1/10 is big value.  Have been out all day so missed it but please post more of those.  1/20 now.  Probably still value tbf.

On the same theme as above BFSbook have under 1.5 Tory seats in Scotland at 1/7. Given Iron's comments this looks value too?